U.S. heat wave blamed for 22 deaths; Bret and Cindy no threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15:07 GMT le 21 juillet 2011

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The dangerous U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to over 100 million Americans today, with 33 states plus the District of Columbia currently under heat advisories. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100° in twenty states in the Central and Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, peaking at 123° in Council Bluffs, Iowa. At least 22 deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The extreme humidity that has accompanied this heat has made it a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities are due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding in the Midwest over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Accompanying the heat has been high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution is expected exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 22 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA.

The extreme heat peaked in Chicago yesterday, where the temperature hit 100° at Midway Airport and the Chicago Lakefront station. Rockford, Illinois hit 100°, the first time in 22 years that city had seen 100° temperatures. Detroit is expected to hit 100° for the first time in sixteen years today, and I think I'm going to skip the Ann Arbor Art Fair! New York City and the mid-Atlantic states are expected to be near 100° on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post. A few notable highlights from this week:

Omaha, Nebraska has been above 80° for a four-day period beginning on July 17. This is the 2nd longest such stretch on record, next to the 8-day period that ended July 25, 1934. Multi-day periods when the low temperatures do not cool off below 75° are associated with high heat wave death rates.

Amarillo, Texas recorded its 26th day of 100° temperatures yesterday, tying the city's record for most 100° days in a year, last set in 1953. Record keeping in the city goes back to 1892.

Minneapolis, Minnesota, recorded its highest dew point ever, 82°, on Tuesday. The heat index hit a remarkable 118° in the city, which tied July 11, 1966 for the highest heat index on record in the city. Minnesota's all-time highest dew point temperature of 86° was tied on Sunday, in Madison. The previous record was in St. James and Pipestone in July of 2005.

The latest National Weather Service storm summary has a list of cities where the heat index exceeded 100° yesterday.


Figure 1. On Wednesday, heat advisories for this dangerous heat wave covered portions of 33 states plus the District of Columbia, an area with 141 million people--about half the population of the U.S.

Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to struggle with high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and high shear is expected to affect the storm the remainder of the week. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to destroy Bret by Sunday, and the storm is not a threat to any land areas.

Tropical Storm Cindy forms
Tropical Storm Cindy formed yesterday 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain moderate for several days. However, Cindy has moved over cool ocean waters of 25°C this morning, and this temperature is 1.5°C below the threshold of 26.5°C that tropical storms typically need in order to maintain their strength. With Cindy predicted to move over waters of just 21°C by Friday morning, the storm doesn't have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.

An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 12N 50W, 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. This wave will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles beginning on Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots. Once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of the wave. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Wednesday, just off the coast of South Carolina. The other models generally depict too much wind shear over the Bahamas for the wave to develop. The eventual track of the wave once it reaches the Bahamas early next week is uncertain; there will be a trough of low pressure located off the U.S. East Coast that will be capable of turning the wave to the north, along the East Coast. However, it is also quite possible that the wave would be too weak and to far south to feel the influence of this trough, and instead would enter the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Dora.

Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific close to Category 5
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification over the past 24 hours, and is now a very impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June.

Think cold. Way cold!
Those of us sweltering in today's heat would do well to consider that on this date in 1983, Vostok, Antarctica shivered at -128°F--the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth. The low tonight in Vostok is expected to be a relatively balmy -80°F.

Jeff Masters

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Already a heat index of 105 here in Massachusetts. That was the forecast max today, and its only 11 AM.

Lawrence Municipal Airport
Fair
96 °F
Humidity: 46 %
Wind Speed: W 10 G 16 MPH
Barometer: 29.76" (1007.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 72 °F (22 °C)
Heat Index: 105 °F (41 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
I think not...

Jacobstown, Wrightstown, New Jersey (PWS)
Clear
101.0 °F
Clear
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 89 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 147 °F


Dew Point: 89 °F not that high!!something not right here
Member Since: 12 juillet 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Thanks, everyone. I'm not very tech smart and have no idea how to switch to firefox, but going to just 50 worked.

I'm surprised no one yet is worrying and asking if we'll have a cane in the Gulf. I think some of the crowd is falling behind in worrying. *G*


Free download for the Firefox browser here:


http://www.mozilla.com/en-US/firefox/new/
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11 a.m.

It hits 100 degrees in Baltimore and Newark NJ!!!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Try changing your view to the most recent 50 comments


Apparently I already have those posters on the ignore list. I rarely experience blog stretch anymore.
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1220. lucreto
Quoting atmoaggie:
If you don't mind, would you please post a copy of your CV with a list of degrees from meteorology schools and selected publications pertinent to tropical meteorology?


I got a BS in meteorology/mathematics from the University of Miami in 2003, and got an MS in atmospheric science from CSU in 2006, and have previously worked as an intern at the NWS office in Slidell Louisiana but have returned to CSU in order to pursue my primary interest in atmospheric modeling. (operational forecasting was just not for me)
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


That's the biggest load of crap I have ever seen...

LOL I have no idea why I find that funny.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:
aussie by no means that im saying this cant be a huge problem for haiti...they will probably get torrential rainfall and mud slides out of this..i agree with you 100% on that..i was talking further down the road as it nears southern fla...

True, Haiti will have a problem with any Twave that passes over it. I understand your point. I have a feeling not much will be left of this Twave once it reaches Fla.
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Quoting lucreto:


According to my calculations the chances of an above average Cape Verde Season (defined as storms being classified east of the Lesser Antilles) is only at 33.4% so I can not justify your conclusion of the wave train beginning at this point in time.
If you don't mind, would you please post a copy of your CV with a list of degrees from meteorology schools and selected publications pertinent to tropical meteorology?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
aussie by no means that im saying this cant be a huge problem for haiti...they will probably get torrential rainfall and mud slides out of this..i agree with you 100% on that..i was talking further down the road as it nears southern fla...
Member Since: 24 juin 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 896
Quoting lucreto:
The BAMD shows it traversing the entire length of Hispanola thus reducing developmental possibilities from about 36.8% to 17.5% and creating a wind decay of ~5.2 kts. The BAMD is within a 56% error swath 58% of the time, and therefore when blended with the other models (with the BAMD being weighted at .4) we get a chance of development (to depression status) of 21.45%.


That's the biggest load of crap I have ever seen...
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Thanks, everyone. I'm not very tech smart and have no idea how to switch to firefox, but going to just 50 worked.

I'm surprised no one yet is worrying and asking if we'll have a cane in the Gulf. I think some of the crowd is falling behind in worrying. *G*
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1213. Levi32
I'm off to work. Later all.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:
baha thats the problem its not going n of pr its going to go south and thats right into the dom rep and haita very mountaionous terrain...will tear the sysytem apart..this will just be a rain maker in general if it makes it to south fla..if this gets in the se gom and is still a tw it could possibly with the warm ssts develop further into a tropical depression and bring some mischief somewhere along the gulfcoast..perhaps texas may get lucky...

A rain maker in Haiti can still be a killer.
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1211. lucreto
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


how many systems have you been correct about?


I don't make predictions I merely like most meteorologists use probabilities, that being said if you were to say look at 4 occasions in which I claimed something had a 25% chance of occurring it would probably occur on ~1 occasion. That being said I still have made obvious errors in the past that can be clearly seen even with percentages. However, I my forecast percentages are generally reasonable I am able to use a specialized (for tropical cyclogenesis/tracking/intensity) version of the Buffkit software that assists greatly, and although it is still iffy for track I do believe its intensity guidance has proven for the last 2 years to be superior to all the main dynamical models.
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Given the other day lucreto said that he worked with the SHIPS with stormkat proves who he really is - ignore him stat. He's no met.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
I think not...

Jacobstown, Wrightstown, New Jersey (PWS)
Clear
101.0 °F
Clear
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 89 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 147 °F
Member Since: 14 juillet 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9676
Quoting RitaEvac:
I don't think so...

Jacobstown, Wrightstown, New Jersey (PWS)
Clear
101.0 °F
Clear
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 89 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 147 °F

Rydalmere, Sydney, NSW, Australia Weather
Now
49.1°F rising
Updated at 00:30 EST
Relative Humidity: 91%
Rain since 9am: 28.8mm
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1207. lucreto
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
90L may or may not amount to anything significant but a sure sign of the beginning of the viable wave train going into Aug-Sept; I am actually quite surprised by the current model trajectory which is a little early for usual July tracks from that particular location.


According to my calculations the chances of an above average Cape Verde Season (defined as storms being classified east of the Lesser Antilles) is only at 33.4% so I can not justify your conclusion of the wave train beginning at this point in time.
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its over!!!

Post-Tropical Cyclone BRET

11:00 AM AST Fri Jul 22
Location: 37.7°N 64.2°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NE at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Member Since: 12 juillet 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
Quoting lucreto:
You guys are fools for tracking something with an ~ 20% chance of development this thing will be destroyed by the islands/dry air


Be more subtle next time with your coments Nostradamus........."Ignore list button on"
Member Since: 8 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9372
baha thats the problem its not going n of pr its going to go south and thats right into the dom rep and haita very mountaionous terrain...will tear the sysytem apart..this will just be a rain maker in general if it makes it to south fla..if this gets in the se gom and is still a tw it could possibly with the warm ssts develop further into a tropical depression and bring some mischief somewhere along the gulfcoast..perhaps texas may get lucky...
Member Since: 24 juin 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 896
Quoting lucreto:
You guys are fools for tracking something with an ~ 20% chance of development this thing will be destroyed by the islands/dry air


how many systems have you been correct about?
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1202. ncstorm
SHIPS model has 90L at 71 mph at 120 hours..thats almost a hurricane..
Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16208
1201. Levi32
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Levi great Tidbit for today.My goodness the setup is starting to look real scary according to your video.I pray everyone is prepared and ready and most of all safe.


I do too. What the models show can always change, but we are getting to that time of year when folks are going to start getting threatened.
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I don't think so...

Jacobstown, Wrightstown, New Jersey (PWS)
Clear
101.0 °F
Clear
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 89 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 147 °F
Member Since: 14 juillet 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9676
90L may or may not amount to anything significant but a sure sign of the beginning of the viable wave train going into Aug-Sept; I am actually quite surprised by the current model trajectory which is a little early for usual July tracks from that particular location.
Member Since: 8 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9372
Quoting lucreto:


This is no Fay, Fay was the most impressive "invest" I have ever seen, it was clearly a moderate tropical storm however, the NHC due to pressure from the Puerto Rican government (not wanting to deal with the implications of tropical storm watches and warnings), did not classify it until after it had cleared Puerto Rico.


yep thats what i was saying we all know the nhc is the most conservative agency for atl hurricanes lol its a joke but they seem to play alot of the wait game even when a system may have developed already anyone remember dolly?? 2008
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Levi great Tidbit for today.My goodness the setup is starting to look real scary according to your video.I pray everyone is prepared and ready and most of all safe.
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Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
If its at 12n 55 west, then its either headed for the carrib, or wnw to nw it ride over the greater antilles with no chance of dev.And at 20 mph at 285 degrees.Well that would put this in the carrib in less than 24 hrs.And the old john Hope rule is;if it does NOT FORM BEFORE THE ISLANDS THEN IT WANT TILL IT GETS TO the western Carrib.then its probably a C/a event.Maybe thats why the other models don't do anything with this.They feel its going to rain itself out over the mountains of the greater antilles, or track into C/A.jMHO.have a nice day.
Hey Hrrifan... I don't think even the early predictions we saw for this had any development with it before it got N of PR... will be interesting to see if it survives the trip to get to 20/70....

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Member Since: 12 juillet 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
1193. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:
Quite the slug of moisture associated with 90L:



Indeed. It has been deceptively moist during its journey. One wouldn't know it from the lack of convection it has generally had.
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Quite the slug of moisture associated with 90L:

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1191. lucreto
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


i would not want to argue however it was designated over pueto rico but when all the analysis was observed here on the blog with the lil bit of resources in terms of a TD it showed all the signs before pueto rico


This is no Fay, Fay was the most impressive "invest" I have ever seen, it was clearly a moderate tropical storm however, the NHC due to pressure from the Puerto Rican government (not wanting to deal with the implications of tropical storm watches and warnings), did not classify it until after it had cleared Puerto Rico.
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10 a.m.

Newark NJ 98
Baltimore 97
Philly 94
Boston 94
DC 94
NYC 93
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Fay developed over Puerto Rico.


i would not want to argue however it was designated over pueto rico but when all the analysis was observed here on the blog with the lil bit of resources in terms of a TD it showed all the signs before pueto rico
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1187. Levi32
ASCAT missed most of the wave, but the winds on the NW side of the axis look unimpressive in terms of turning.

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1186. lucreto
The BAMD shows it traversing the entire length of Hispanola thus reducing developmental possibilities from about 36.8% to 17.5% and creating a wind decay of ~5.2 kts. The BAMD is within a 56% error swath 58% of the time, and therefore when blended with the other models (with the BAMD being weighted at .4) we get a chance of development (to depression status) of 21.45%.
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1185. skook
Current temp in Brandon Florida. (10:30am)

93.0 °F
Feels Like 118 °F



with a dew point in the low 80's
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1183. Levi32
A tropical storm is still more dangerous than a tropical wave, last I checked. They are to be taken with caution, more so than an every-day wave.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Use FireFox and you will have no problems.


I also use firefox and have no problems.

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I agree with the land interaction part however, there isn't a closed low yet. The Low could close off anywhere on the trough axis which may or may not include a path over land. Also seen storms thread the needle so it's never 100% imo.
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Cindy is unbelievably still a tropical system, convection ring around the center.

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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. I see the blog mossik is at it again. I learned that word as a kid growing up. It just seems to fit. No quote box and reading is messed up. Another hot day here.

Use FireFox and you will have no problems.
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90L has a lot of problems in its way...not only does it has to deal with shear but when it moves over the dominican rep and haiti the mountains will pretty well destroy it...if and thats a big if when it passes near southern fla it has a slim chance 20% of being a weak tropical depression before moving into the SE GOM..i just cant see this amounting to much but a rainmaker for fla and thats always good it keeps you out the oven...
Member Since: 24 juin 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 896
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


true and if we can recall tropical storm fay developed right before the greater Antilles and maintained its intensity and even intensified

Fay developed over Puerto Rico.
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Good morning, everyone. I see the blog mossik is at it again. I learned that word as a kid growing up. It just seems to fit. No quote box and reading is messed up. Another hot day here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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