U.S. heat wave blamed for 22 deaths; Bret and Cindy no threat
The dangerous U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to over 100 million Americans today, with 33 states plus the District of Columbia currently under heat advisories. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100° in twenty states in the Central and Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, peaking at 123° in Council Bluffs, Iowa. At least 22 deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The extreme humidity that has accompanied this heat has made it a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities are due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding in the Midwest over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Accompanying the heat has been high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution is expected exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 22 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA.
The extreme heat peaked in Chicago yesterday, where the temperature hit 100° at Midway Airport and the Chicago Lakefront station. Rockford, Illinois hit 100°, the first time in 22 years that city had seen 100° temperatures. Detroit is expected to hit 100° for the first time in sixteen years today, and I think I'm going to skip the Ann Arbor Art Fair! New York City and the mid-Atlantic states are expected to be near 100° on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post. A few notable highlights from this week:
Omaha, Nebraska has been above 80° for a four-day period beginning on July 17. This is the 2nd longest such stretch on record, next to the 8-day period that ended July 25, 1934. Multi-day periods when the low temperatures do not cool off below 75° are associated with high heat wave death rates.
Amarillo, Texas recorded its 26th day of 100° temperatures yesterday, tying the city's record for most 100° days in a year, last set in 1953. Record keeping in the city goes back to 1892.
Minneapolis, Minnesota, recorded its highest dew point ever, 82°, on Tuesday. The heat index hit a remarkable 118° in the city, which tied July 11, 1966 for the highest heat index on record in the city. Minnesota's all-time highest dew point temperature of 86° was tied on Sunday, in Madison. The previous record was in St. James and Pipestone in July of 2005.
The latest National Weather Service storm summary has a list of cities where the heat index exceeded 100° yesterday.
Figure 1. On Wednesday, heat advisories for this dangerous heat wave covered portions of 33 states plus the District of Columbia, an area with 141 million people--about half the population of the U.S.
Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to struggle with high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and high shear is expected to affect the storm the remainder of the week. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to destroy Bret by Sunday, and the storm is not a threat to any land areas.
Tropical Storm Cindy forms
Tropical Storm Cindy formed yesterday 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain moderate for several days. However, Cindy has moved over cool ocean waters of 25°C this morning, and this temperature is 1.5°C below the threshold of 26.5°C that tropical storms typically need in order to maintain their strength. With Cindy predicted to move over waters of just 21°C by Friday morning, the storm doesn't have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.
An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 12N 50W, 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. This wave will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles beginning on Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots. Once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of the wave. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Wednesday, just off the coast of South Carolina. The other models generally depict too much wind shear over the Bahamas for the wave to develop. The eventual track of the wave once it reaches the Bahamas early next week is uncertain; there will be a trough of low pressure located off the U.S. East Coast that will be capable of turning the wave to the north, along the East Coast. However, it is also quite possible that the wave would be too weak and to far south to feel the influence of this trough, and instead would enter the Gulf of Mexico.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Dora.
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific close to Category 5
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification over the past 24 hours, and is now a very impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June.
Think cold. Way cold!
Those of us sweltering in today's heat would do well to consider that on this date in 1983, Vostok, Antarctica shivered at -128°F--the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth. The low tonight in Vostok is expected to be a relatively balmy -80°F.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Link
Do you have a source for that dewpoint? That would be incredible...
All Active Year
Atlantic
03L.CINDY
02L.BRET
East Pacific
04E.DORA
Central Pacific
West Pacific
93W.INVEST
08W.MA-ON
Indian Ocean
Southern Hemisphere
Even for more prone areas like the Central Gulf Coast, the Panhandle, and all of South Florida will likely not experience a bombardment of hurricanes like those years for a while. Look into history, jam packed periods of tropical cyclone bombardments just aren't that common in the Atlantic region. Yet I think many have become worried that every year will again resemble those years, just out of shear horror that has struck us. I'm not expecting anything more of people, we should be shocked by such things. I also am not saying we should blow off potential hurricane disasters by any means. But if we can, we should learn to be prepared, but not dread every hurricane season out of fear. Cause chances are most of the years ahead will not much the recent horrors like we had in 2004 and 2005.
Spoken like a true Minnesotan! :) I remember the excitement of finally getting to break out the sleds and snow pants.
You have mail.
I'm getting real ticked. I'm getting accused of something that I would never do in my life. If I did it, I would have said that I did it right here and now. I'm getting set up by someone, but I don't know by who.
Z:zulu time
you'd be surprised how often I've heard the term zulu time.
hardly ever
I knew some of these, but not all. Very handy list of CUA's. Thanks, Keeper, for educating us!
This the general concept (quote) and link to the conference presentation summary by Klotzbach below.......Seems interesting to me as to this season, so far, in both basins (specifically the E-Pac v. Atlantic).....If we do get another, or, two E-Pac storms over the next several weeks (along with a simultaneous Atlantic system) then a few follow-up papers will certainly be written or presented on "what" caused this activity in both basins I would think.
Another relationship that has been noted in previous years but has been documented more thoroughly recently is the inverse relationship between Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity (Lander and Guard 1998, Elsner and Kara 1999, Klotzbach 2006, Wang and Lee 2009, Collins 2010, Wang and Lee 2010). When Atlantic activity is heightened, eastern North Pacific activity tends to be reduced and vice versa. Wang and Lee (2009) demonstrate an out-of-phase relationship between the two basins and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index (Bell et al. 2000). They demonstrate that this relationship is likely due to the fact that same-signed upper-level wind anomalies act to increase vertical wind shear in one basin while reducing it in the other basin, due to the fact that climatological upper-level winds are westerly in the Atlantic, while they are easterly in the eastern North Pacific. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) also is observed to typically be of opposite sign between the two basins. Collins (2010) shows that the inverse relationship is primarily due to storms forming in the western part of the eastern North Pacific basin (likely due to the ENSO signal discussed in the previous paragraph).
Link
She will not move in that direction. A little bit more north. She will be close to Puerto Rico.
I have nothing against masters and he is the expert. Don't think I am downgrading him because I am now. I am just stating that there are a lot of meteorologist that do this.What happened to trusting your instinct? The computer models are suppose to tools to help us predict things but they shouldn't be the tool that predicts the weather for us. Computer Models are constantly changing and NOAA loves to change their forecast every 12 hours. I hear people all the time stating that weather forecasters have no clue what is going to happen. I declare this is because we relie on computer models too much.
Time to go back to the basics and remember that once there were no models to predict storms.
yep, getting better organized !!!
Based on satellite derived cyclone phase state, barely holding on to warm core status
That would be because you have never done anything useful, like serve your country.
Yep. And after being here for awhile, you'll even be able to tell the usual from the unusual almost as well as native Earthlings.
I would believe it would be scary. Computer Models love to show "storms" and than they just disappear on the model. A good example of this is "Bret" because the GFS was showing him forming as a "Low" than the low disappeared. A few days later we had Bret.
The same can be said of the wave in the CATL. The models showed the system dropping off but than reappearing. I say that you should trust your gut and know if the storm will develop or not. If you are not going to listen to the "unreliable" computer models than why have them in the first place?
This is what i do. I look at ALL the models and see what they ALL say. Than see which one I believe. I have honestly been thinking the ECMWf is right.
City of Toronto continued
Extreme temperatures and humidex values expected today.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 PM EDT Thursday 21 July 2011
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.66 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4
Temperature: 94.8°F
Dewpoint: 75.6°F
Humidity: 54 %
Wind: W 22 mph
Humidex: 116
The GFS is also showing something off the Carolinas in 144 hours
Link
I still think the GFS and NOGAPS are too late with developing the storm. The current look of the wave seems to insist that it will be a lot sooner.
Payback for sending all that cold down to us in Florida last winter. LOL ;>)
:)
NatGeo -- What If the Biggest Solar Storm on Record Happened Today?
Z :: zulu
Ya also hardly ever hear "GMT time", "UTC time", "EDT time", "PST time"... I wonder why? Folks are always saying stuff like "SI System", "ATM machine", "DOS operating system", "GNU Not Unix"...
NOUS42 KNHC 211500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 21 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-051
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL INVEST AT 24/1800Z NEAR 21.0N 69.0W.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE DORA
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43
A. 22/2000Z
B. NOAA3 0104E DORA
C. 22/1600Z
D. 19.8N 1110.0W
E. 22/1930Z TO 22/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX HURRICANE DORA
NEAR 21.5N 113.0W AT 24/0000Z.
JWP
I'm with you on that. If I am seeing this correctly, Looks like very little shear for the next 48 hrs
Current surface winds
Indeed
LOL! OMG, FYI I know.
ok see you at 1300 Z
(1pm zulu time)
3.1 / 994.6mb/ 47.0kt
Satellite estimates
Sheesh, yeah. You have an intense looking Don poised to hit SC, and Emily as a CV storm at about 33W at the end of the run. Actually, "Emily" might be "Franklin" depending on how strong the wave before it actually was at its peak.
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