July 22, 2011: A day of records
The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.
Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:
• Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
• Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
• Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
• Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
• New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)
Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.
Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:
• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)
The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).
Invest 90L
Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.
Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.
Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Yes, I do know what the gulfstream is. And it is what if - you asked a hypothetical question.
1.) Shear isn't a problem.
2.) Subsidence, land interaction
wind shear is vary low for 90L right now about 5 too 20kt and it stays like that all the long it path the olny thing thats keeping 90L for doing any thing is called land
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Early Model Wind Forecasts
Point is:
Florida/Bahamas/Northern Carribean/Gulf are Prone to get hit by Hurricanes in an ENSO Year....and SST'S are Conducive for Supporting a Major Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.
As much as i would like to see the All the Hurricanes go out to sea... Not all of them will go out to Sea... and no matter how much i pray or hope... Some in the Atlantic Basin will get hit this year.
For 90L to actually pose an especially dangerous threat to south Florida (by that I mean Category 2 and beyond), it'd actually have to have reason to rapidly intensify, which as of now it doesn't.
I mean, does it appear this system is moving more WNW than previously forecast? I still cannot get a fix on the center, so the main convection doesn't really mean that much as far as the models are concerned. Could this current setting indicate that if the systems develops more, the models might be further North than before?
The only area where I could see rapid intensification take place is in the Western Caribbean, but if it isn't a system by then, it probably wont ever undergo rapid intensification.
Thank's
or when it moves overe the loop eddy or wish evere comes 1st
It's useless trying to predict rapid intensification anyway unless the process is ongoing or imminent. We simply do not know enough yet.
I am still sticking with my prediction I made yesterday, though: that this will not develop appreciably until reaching the western Caribbean in a few days.
Thats the one!
Agreed.
How developed it is isn't going to play much of a role in its track at this point. Everything right now hinges entirely on where the low center forms. It has a certain length of wave axis upon which it could form, and where it decides to form on that axis (if it forms) will decide what its trajectory is along the big island chain, whether it be over them or just south of them.
Let's what the 00z models have, but they have not come out yet.
LinkWVLoop
...which I like to imagine is them folks having a knock-down drag-out about what that something is. Ain't like there'd be a need for such a long delay ifn they all agreed on the what.
You mean the NHC? I've seen them go south of them, down the middle, or to the right. It depends entirely on the ambient circumstances.
But not with systems that lack inner cores.
Even Wilma did not, as it was a depression (operationally) for six advisories.
Anyone notice the big increase in vorticity ?
close to where we were looking earlier though the convection in that area has died out a bit over the last few hours
103 degrees: Record high in Merrimack Valley
It reached 103 degrees at Lawrence Municipal Airport yesterday, breaking the previous record high temperature for the Merrimack Valley by one degree.
The previous record of 102 was set on the same date in 1926, according to Haverhill native Matt Noyes, a New England Cable News meteorologist.
"As best I can tell, this does go down as the hottest temperature of all time — on record — at the Lawrence airport," Noyes said.
Link
But the interaction with the land mass of DR can affect its progress?
First of all, as everyone has stated, wind shear is not an issue with this storm.
Secondly, since it's just a strong tropical wave without a center, it is very possible that this system forms an area of low pressure south or north of the islands. Yes, land interaction can disrupt cyclone formation, but if the storms decide to consolidate further south, then land interaction might not be a huge issue. I've seen this happen before, so it's very possible.
Note: Caribbean water temperatures are hot, hot, hot. Don't forget that.
I'm really disappointed in the GFS model because it really doesn't show this tropical wave very well in the model runs. NAM has picked this out for awhile, and GFDL is on board with something. Also, NOGAPS doesn't show anything, which could be a positive sign since NOGAPS is...well, NOGAPS.
I've seen worse waves develop into something, and this is a very impressive tropical wave in my opinion.
We'll see what happens, but I have a gut feeling that this will be "Don". I don't expect this thing to start developing until Sunday night the earliest.
Interesting. Would love to have a geologist or someone educated in the field weigh in on this.
From Wiki:
Pisgah Crater, or Pisgah Volcano, is a young volcanic cinder cone rising above a lava plain in the Mojave Desert, between Barstow and Needles, California in San Bernardino County, California. The volcanic peak is around 2.5 miles (4.0 km) south of historic U.S. Route 66-National Old Trails Highway and of Interstate 40, and southeast the town of Ludlow.
Link
On Google Earth.
Link
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