July 22, 2011: A day of records
The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.
Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:
• Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
• Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
• Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
• Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
• New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)
Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.
Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:
• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)
The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).
Invest 90L
Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.
Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.
Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Come right on over we will have a Party for sure :o)
Taco :o)
Models bending a little to the N (right) after 90L clears the western tip of Cuba and rounds the western edge of the 700mb ridge. This should occur in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as the base of the east coast trough erodes the ridge-but not by much. Builds back in strong on Thursday/Friday which would lead to a turn back to the west and a "landfall" in S TX/NE MX. Quite a bit of uncertainty in this shallow "S" curve at this point. A WAG for now.
There have been times I evacuated, and times I didn't (for lots of different reasons...including the alternator going out on the van and no auto parts stores being open. We got lucky, the storm missed us.) I have never regretted leaving, even if the storm ended up going somewhere else. But there are definitely some times when we didn't that I wished we had. Hurricane Ike in '08 comes to mind. Our excuse was that we didn't have the money to leave so soon after the evacuation for Gustav.
I agree with you beell about the High building back in after the Troft goes through but I see a possible 2 high pressures building back in and the storm goes between to 2 highs and hits somewhere near Pcola and the Big Bend of FL......
Thats if the 2nd High pressure makes a play into this setup.... But if not I see where it could be a S TX and NE MX land fall....
Taco :o)
Sounds like you've been through the same ones as I. We did evac for Gus and Ike. Wasn't easy. I'm forever grateful I got my husband to leave for Rita. He didn't come with the kids and me for the Lili evac. But he did call me from our bed that night. Rita put a huge oak tree on that bed 3 years later. He's a believer now. If that didn't convince him the night in a mobile home with Humberto raging outside was enough. It's a hard call to stay or to go some times. Sigh. I don't want to believe we'll have to face that question again any time soon. Guess the best we can do is keep an eye out and be prepared.
Taco :o)
Where do you live? It sounds like we might just be in the same neck of the woods.
Looked at the satellite images and didn't see much. So a volcanic eruption sounds unlikely. Not to mention the media would be all over it if that were the case.
Anyway, have fun with your lab. Already walked my husky/akita mix dog. She's the best
Evening, taco2me61,
If 90L stays disorganized and/or interacts with land it should remain an open wave up to that point. Which may allow a continued WNW path embedded in the ridge. It may be well west of the NE gulf by that point and steered by a rebuilding sub-trop ridge from the east.
I probably just need some sleep and some rain else commnon sense would preclude making a guess this far out!
Live in the middle of Vidor now. Was in Pine Forest until Rita.
Small world. I live near Smith Lake.
Lol. Hang in here Beell. The heats getting to us all.
thers aloso alot of caves and lava tubes in that area for bats, but heres the video link if ya havent seen it
Yep. A block from the high school here. :) Hoping we do get rain. But hopefully not from anything we might have to leave for.
Models have 90 as a CAT 2 in the GOM
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
You got that right! Both my dad and my hubby work for the prison system, so they would have to stay. But I have "orders" from both of them to evacuate with my mom. And I don't plan to argue with either of them.
Still looks like 90L doesn't have much of a chance for the several days or so. A few reasons for this are the presence of land, increasing trade winds over the central Caribbean, and the large, broad, area of moisture and vorticity associated with this wave. I was wrong about upper level winds being not so conducive over the system. Looks like the anticyclone is building over the wave quite nicely thanks to all the convection which flourished under divergent conditions aloft. Additionally, since our little vort max we are watching, invest 90L, is a bit S of the center of the anticyclone, it is providing easterly winds aloft over the vort max/invest 90L. This is keeping shear very low over the vort max and fairly low over the rest of the wave, as well as keeping divergence strong over the system. Time to eat my crow.
Anyway, looking ahead with 90L, as I already said, any development looks unlikely for the next few days. Track should continue WNW or just north of west for a little, then head a little more northerly as the ridge is weakened a bit by the troughs. As I said last night, however, this won't allow the wave to be pulled out to the north. Instead it should head west into the Gulf of Mexico as the ridge builds back in. Around Tue/Wed is when we will really have to look out for development as the wave should enter the Gulf around Wednesday. Conditions over the gulf should be favorable for the most part, but upper level conditions will be the biggest things working against the system. That doesn't mean development can't or won't occur, however.
Smart girl! :) My husband's a manager at Walmart. So he can leave (at the last second of course) then he comes back because they supply the first responders. Didn't see a lot of him after Rita. Me and the kids were vehicle-less in Kilgore for a couple weeks. Longview after Ike. But not as long. He would drive it some times. That's a long commute. Lol.
Where do they send it?
Agreed!
An area of convection (93W) located at 12.4N 128.9E or 470 NM east southeast of Manila, Philippines. Recent animated multispectral imagery shows convection slowly building over a well defined, albeit exposed low level circulation center. Infrared satellite imagery shows weak banding along the western and southern periphery that has deepened over the past 24 hours but remains poorly organized. Upper level analysis indicated the system is just to the west of a ridge axis in a moderate area of vertical wind shear.
Animated water vapor imagery shows some equatorward outflow, however, a tropical upper tropospheric trough cell approaching from the northeast is expected to open a poleward outflow channel over the next 24 hours. Coincidentally, as the system gains latitude, the vertical wind shear will relax and promote further development.
Maximum sustained wind near the center is 17-22 knots with a central pressure of 1006 MB based on recent scatterometry data and extrapolated from nearby surface observations.
Yep, fingers crossed. If this Texas blow dryer doesn't kill it. :)
Ok. Thanks. :)
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