July 22, 2011: A day of records
The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.
Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:
• Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
• Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
• Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
• Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
• New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)
Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.
Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:
• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)
The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).
Invest 90L
Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.
Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.
Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.
Angela
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 — Blog Index
i generally agree.
although as we've seen with systems like this a new center could reform at any point if deep convection gets going further to the N or NE.
Link
we should see the other models start to pick this up by late tonight or tommorow morning wird ant it
I'm thinking about 90L that it wasn't expected to do much before about 70W, so I wouldn't be surprised to see something after that point. I think there's still sufficient potential there. However, nothing will happen if we don't start to see some real rotation again...
Oh yeah - that is crazy how close all the models are.
I want to say "Oh...poor babies..." But then I remembered that a lot if these folks don't have indoor air..I hope they get relief soon!
The GFS and ECMWF have the western Caribbean upper low moving west into Mexico by the Day 4-5 period. With the upper low to the west and the TUTT to the east, chances are there will be an at least semi-favorable pocket between the two, though subsidence south of the big U.S. high may still be an issue. The wave will need to be firing convection near the NW Caribbean and Florida Straights though if it is to have a lot of luck in the gulf.
Pressures arent falling though and its not headed into a favorable environment
This may sound cynical, but Texas has a pretty good evacuation record (not counting Ike :()and we really won't survive much more of this drought.
Link
first let me correct you on something it is headed into a good envronment with 5-10kt shear building to the west of it and the 15 and higher getting kicked out the other thing the pressures will soon fall
I think a *lot* of us would like something weak to move in, dump a few inches of rain, and move on. We do need it. Wait til the rest of the country sees what happens to corn, beef, dairy, and wheat prices. Our corn crop failed (statewide), ranchers have been culling herds, the wheat crop failed, cotton largely failed. I'm sure other farming and ranching areas suffered similarly.
We don't want or need another Allison, though.
I think there's some strange force field on the Texan border. Everywhere around you, like Mexico and Louisiana has had drought busting rains. But they all seem to stop at the border.
Ike evacuation went OK it was Rita that was the evacuation killer...
That was fast I really didnt expect that till later tonight.
May get back to 30% at 8 p.m. if trends continue. The wind shear that tore it apart last night has lifted more to the north.
everything would just be a guess.
The evacuation for Rita killed people ... literally.
My family lived in Elgin, TX. We were on bicycles and motorcycles taking gas to those who ran out trying to get to Austin. It was chaos.
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Shear is scary low
I sure can't argue with any of that. I guess I'm just a little hesitant to root for any storm this time of year..too many unknown variables in that scenario...jmo
same thing happened during floyd on the east coast... people stuck on the road...lots of people released from hospitals...died on the roads because oxygen tanks ran out etc...total road blocks etc...first they said FL...so they evacuated north....then GA was on the hit list...so they and FL came further north, then SC was on the hit list...by then we were packed with 3 states worth of people...they wouldn't open the roads back to the south...so everyone still tried to go north...it took us 9 hours to go 20 miles by the time we were able to try to leave...it was horrible and we were not trying to go north we went due west on the back roads...the main roads and interstates were worse...
As to the evacuations - yes -- that's why more places are working on evacuating in place. If you live close to the coast -- move out to some place inland with family or friends. We have all seen that the moving of large populations does not work. Obviously this wouldn't apply to New Orleans, but plenty of places it would work.
Did yo experience Camille?
Viewing: 151 - 201
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 — Blog Index