July 22, 2011: A day of records
The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.
Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:
• Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
• Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
• Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
• Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
• New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)
Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.
Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:
• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)
The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).
Invest 90L
Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.
Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.
Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.
Angela
Reader Comments
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What he just said. :)
Agreed, maybe no longer an invest, but still an area of interest for those of us on the Gulf Coast.
He could be right. I've seen dome unexpected things in the tropics before. Wouldn't give up on it yet.
Link
The NAM certainly likes to show some Thunderstorm activity with old 90L..........don't jump my case.......i know the NAM is not a Tropical Model but it is a good indicator and a good model to show out to 48hrs of Thunderstorms!
Would you stop Wishcasting for rain PLease...........LOL........hey Brother. Ya i sure hope you all get the needed rain!
That would be a best case indeed. :) Fingers crossed.
No let him wish! Lol.
Another big one as well. This T-wave is twisting up a lot of atmosphere. NoGaps tries to develop it, if I am not mistaken? However, it may be just a little early yet IMO.
Hey TS. 90L is presently the only game in town so I am going to try to hype it as much as I can within reason.......... :)
Yep the one that is about to roll off Africa might start getting talked about before ever rolling off. Its a biggie. And the one in the Central Atlantic certainly has a small chance!
Wow, plenty of mositure in the Caribbean and GOM for some brewing to occur. Not seen it like that for a while.
I don't think its lacking environment, cause conditons with moisture and Shear is not bad.
Old 90L has little vorticity. Just not much spin ocurring.
WOW, look at the Convergence in the Central Atlantic ..........that has a chance.
Ya that is strange too with the NOGAPS.........that use to be one of the slower more conservative models to show anything. Heck over the past few years when it showed something you could almost bet on it coming.
20 to 30 kts currently
But looks like 90l will be moving into lower shear area in the next 24 hrs or so.
Looking at water vapor loops still has some spin with it right now though its seems to be at the higher levels at present.
Good Post......One thing i always look at is Convergence! If a system has no Convergence it just not spinning. I got into an argument the other nite when on poster was saying a system does not need Convergence..........I DON"T AGREE WITH THAT AT ALL! If you don't have a good Convergence return.......good chance the 850MB Vorticity won't be there either.
July climatology is still a little hard to beat. We had an incredible looking one come off the coast about 3 weeks ago (almost looked fully developed shortly after hitting the water) and it fell apart and dissipated after passing west of the Cape Verde Islands. However, we are now getting closer to Aug-Sept period so chances are (and we will know it when we see it) that once that "first" long track wave develops into a storm before hitting the Antilles, the Cape Verde switch will be on and the models will start to develop the ones that follow going into the peak of the season.
Just like cutting the gas line on a car. Sure it will run for a little bit but, not for long. Convergence is the life blood of storms.
Um yes a system can spin without surface convergence. The angular momentum of a low pressure area doesn't just magically disappear as soon as there is no net piling up of air at the center of low pressure. It takes time to spin down - a lot of time.
Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the tropical North Atlantic. Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds.
You must have looped that, NICE JOB!
Your loop comparison indicates that the wave axis may be tilted a bit with height.
Exactly.....if its not there.....we won't see nothing. But, 24hrs can make a big difference in both as we know. Guess Levi missed the point we was making.........you gotta have these in place for development........but, once a system is in place and those features regrece then it can spin itself out like a top.
not officially on the FTP site however, this was the last entry.
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