Tropical Storm Don close to landfall; 91L tracks west
Tropical Storm Don continues to make its way west-northwest toward the Texas coast this evening. Don has increased steadily in pressure over the past 18 to 24 hours. Wind speed remained 45 knots in the 5pm EDT advisory. The strongest thunderstorm activity continues to be south of the center, southeast of Brownsville, Texas, but the strongest winds are to the north according to Hurricane Hunter data. A mesoscale vortex developed on the southern end this afternoon with high radar reflectivity. Radar estimated rainfall rates are as much as 5 inches per hour to the south, and around 2 inches on the north side of the storm, but these are likely an overestimate, although rainfall rate is definitely higher on the southern end of this storm. It began raining in Brownsville, Texas in the 2pm CDT hour, and so far the airport has received 0.3 inches of rain. The heaviest thunderstorms still look to be to Brownsville's southeast.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from Brownsville, Texas at 5pm CDT.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Don
A Hurricane Hunter is currently in the storm, and center fixes suggest Don will make landfall south of Baffin Bay, Texas, in the next couple of hours. Tropical storm-force winds, should there be any, will most likely be seen in a swath from Baffin Bay to Corpus Christi. Once Don moves inland it is expected to dissipate quickly, and without having produced enough meaningful rainfall to impact any drought conditions. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center isn't predicting any rainfall that would exceed flash flood guidance, and no flood watches or warnings are in effect.
NHC Invest 91L
Moderate thunderstorm activity continues in Invest 91L this afternoon, and the Hurricane Center estimates that the axis of the wave is located near 42W. Estimates from satellites show that 91L has a moderate circulation at all levels, and the Advanced Scatterometer resolved a surface circulation early this morning.
Figure 2. Advanced Scatterometer pass over 91L at 7am EDT this morning. The wind barbs show a low-level circulation had formed near the most intense thunderstorms—a good sign of potential development.
Some of the reliable models—GFS, UKMET, and CMC—are developing 91L into at least a weak tropical cyclone. The ECMWF continues to show no development, but a more interesting solution, one that takes the wave on a southerly track. The GFDL does not develop Invest 91L, but the HWRF forecasts category 1 hurricane strength by August 1st. The track for 91L is likely a turn to the northwest when it reaches the Caribbean and a curve to the northeast around the Bahamas. The models that are developing the system do not suggest this is a U.S. landfall threat, although it's pretty early in the game to predict that, and I imagine the track will fluctuate over the next few days. Today the Hurricane Center gives the wave a 30% chance of development (now 50% in the 8pm EDT outlook) over the next 48 hours, and I'm around 40-50% over its lifetime.
I'll have a post tomorrow afternoon on the aftermath of Don as well as NHC Invest 91L.
Angela
Reader Comments
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No unfort I gotta work a 10hr tmrw. But it looks like it's gonna be a long active season.
That makes me and you both, the night shift. :)
You jealous? heh
With all due respect on 91L, I think it is still way to far out to even know if South FL or even Central FL will get hit by this one....
Although we all will have a better handle on it by Sunday or Monday thats for sure....
Taco :o)
Me too, BTW its 9:40 PM in my area
I don't think you can say. Flip a coin. Models seem to have been doing that, IMO.
12:41 am for me lol.
Pinhole!!
I see the eye, hope the forecast is correct and will pass south of Shanghai
Yeah really. What a dud.
Like the time the White Sox owner decided to have Disco Demolition night between games of a double header.
Like I said in an earlier post, Don was useless.
I'm a Hurricane fan, and I'd love to see a season opener, however, i'm going to the home opener against OSU (:
Maybe sometime Late Saturday or even in to Sunday Night....
Taco :o)
Lol...Nice to have you onboard!
Yeah, I'm afraid she won't be so nice to the Antilles.
Dry air is one...
Link
You mean Dos (2), this weekend
It's been doing a good job to not let the dry air take him over.
WOW...thats no joke.
I got heckled a few times when i keep complaining that Don did not have any Convergence......It was never a storm that poised to be anything. A storm is never a Storm without good Convergence.....Thats just the way it is!
Foolish to speculate, but i am a foolish person.....Let me just say i don't like the setup and timing of what might be coming!
I guess Don claims the record for FASTEST POOFER of all Tropical Cyclones
You were Dead On thats for sure....
Taco :o)
You are no Fool thats for sure and I know where you are coming from.... Not Foolish at all because of the Set-up.... I don't like it either....
Sorry I missed all the fun with Flobbed Don LOL :o)
When I got off work it was over
Taco :o)
Into this
Neither would the 850mb vort...
It's hard to tell which ones of us are Canes and just cane fans. LOL
I hope the boys roll up 60 on OSU*. They have oure 6th national title. (Though the fans were fine to me last fall at Columbus...)
Agreed.
Unfortunately, I won't be around for long, as I am going to workout momentarily.
Everybody have a Great Night....
Taco :o)
I love the Canes. I've been to a game every year since their last championship in '01.
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