Tropical Storm Don close to landfall; 91L tracks west
Tropical Storm Don continues to make its way west-northwest toward the Texas coast this evening. Don has increased steadily in pressure over the past 18 to 24 hours. Wind speed remained 45 knots in the 5pm EDT advisory. The strongest thunderstorm activity continues to be south of the center, southeast of Brownsville, Texas, but the strongest winds are to the north according to Hurricane Hunter data. A mesoscale vortex developed on the southern end this afternoon with high radar reflectivity. Radar estimated rainfall rates are as much as 5 inches per hour to the south, and around 2 inches on the north side of the storm, but these are likely an overestimate, although rainfall rate is definitely higher on the southern end of this storm. It began raining in Brownsville, Texas in the 2pm CDT hour, and so far the airport has received 0.3 inches of rain. The heaviest thunderstorms still look to be to Brownsville's southeast.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from Brownsville, Texas at 5pm CDT.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Don
A Hurricane Hunter is currently in the storm, and center fixes suggest Don will make landfall south of Baffin Bay, Texas, in the next couple of hours. Tropical storm-force winds, should there be any, will most likely be seen in a swath from Baffin Bay to Corpus Christi. Once Don moves inland it is expected to dissipate quickly, and without having produced enough meaningful rainfall to impact any drought conditions. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center isn't predicting any rainfall that would exceed flash flood guidance, and no flood watches or warnings are in effect.
NHC Invest 91L
Moderate thunderstorm activity continues in Invest 91L this afternoon, and the Hurricane Center estimates that the axis of the wave is located near 42W. Estimates from satellites show that 91L has a moderate circulation at all levels, and the Advanced Scatterometer resolved a surface circulation early this morning.
Figure 2. Advanced Scatterometer pass over 91L at 7am EDT this morning. The wind barbs show a low-level circulation had formed near the most intense thunderstorms—a good sign of potential development.
Some of the reliable models—GFS, UKMET, and CMC—are developing 91L into at least a weak tropical cyclone. The ECMWF continues to show no development, but a more interesting solution, one that takes the wave on a southerly track. The GFDL does not develop Invest 91L, but the HWRF forecasts category 1 hurricane strength by August 1st. The track for 91L is likely a turn to the northwest when it reaches the Caribbean and a curve to the northeast around the Bahamas. The models that are developing the system do not suggest this is a U.S. landfall threat, although it's pretty early in the game to predict that, and I imagine the track will fluctuate over the next few days. Today the Hurricane Center gives the wave a 30% chance of development (now 50% in the 8pm EDT outlook) over the next 48 hours, and I'm around 40-50% over its lifetime.
I'll have a post tomorrow afternoon on the aftermath of Don as well as NHC Invest 91L.
Angela
Reader Comments
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48 hr need to watch for that low coming off the east coast
XX/INV/91L
MARK
9.45N/43.75W
This.
The European pretty much nailed Don and Arlene. I'm not sure about the other two systems.
If we are ahead in terms of ACE, we probably aren't by much though, considering our high amount of named storms so far have consisted of relatively short-lived tropical storms.
Hell, I am jealous.
Life is not always perfect. It's what you make of it.
I haven't seen any recent ASCATS that have caught the center. Considering the NHC just upped the chances, and a surface circulation is pretty evident on satellite imagery I would say that is incorrect.
Link
Plus, the NHC mentioned it has a well-defined circulation that can be seen well on satellite imagery.
Well, the European never even develops the wave for whatever reason. If it starts to develop the wave into a tropical cyclone again, I believe it will shift the track north. A weak wave will be much less influenced by any trofing to the north and would slide underneath like the European is showing.
I think at the moment, we can discount the Euro and consider it an outlier. 91L will most likely develop into a tropical cyclone.
The GFDL has really stunk the past two seasons.
TIA.
No problem..
Just thought I'd repost it since I know there's a few who think it is.
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 35 42 50 58 64 70 73 72 71
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 35 42 50 58 64 70 73 72 71
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 42 48 54 60 66 70 70
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 5 3 4 7 6 6 14 16 23 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 3 4 0 0 -1 -6 -9 -6 -2 3
SHEAR DIR 55 85 159 170 110 158 196 227 257 272 273 268 294
SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 133 133 133 136 140 144 146 146 148 149 149
ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 134 134 133 135 138 142 145 144 146 146 144
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 9
700-500 MB RH 70 69 66 62 63 62 63 62 60 67 69 65 65
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 8 8 9 11 11 13 15 14 15
850 MB ENV VOR 33 31 17 4 1 8 16 32 41 48 40 15 15
200 MB DIV 77 89 66 47 69 93 63 52 85 100 81 77 111
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 1 1 11 12
LAND (KM) 1215 1146 1088 1039 1003 927 881 843 771 598 536 492 215
LAT (DEG N) 9.5 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.3 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.3 15.3 16.4 17.6
LONG(DEG W) 41.6 42.7 43.7 44.8 45.9 48.1 50.2 52.3 54.5 56.8 59.2 61.5 63.8
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 32 36 36 34 36 45 57 68 73 78 79 14 69
Model forcast 6 hrs old but here
For 91L Yep I believe it is around the time of DMIN.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/
?
It's starting to develop convection now.
Completely night where 91L is so you could say D-max is in its starting phase.
Yeah the trof is pretty pronounced on the models, but I'm not sure if it will actually be as strong as forecast. These trofs recently have been weaker than the ones we saw last season and have thus lifted out to the northeast more quickly over the top of the A/B High.
Umm whats up with the models this year seems in the past they forcasted to much this year they just ant picking things up to good could it be that the atmospheric conditions just isnt their this year so far although this one is still far out, arrre the models might be right on the money with the conditions got a tune up sort a speak?
Usually the HWRF is bullish. This one, however, I can agree with you that it's possible.
The trough as portrayed on the 18z GFS would be sufficient to recurve the system east of the US coast, yes.
However, it should be noted that climatologically, it is still a little early for an east coast hit from a deep tropics storm. This says nothing about our risks later in the season.
Tropical Storm Muifa.
Lets hope the Euro is wrong with intensity as it was with Ma-on.
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