Tropical Storm Don close to landfall; 91L tracks west
Tropical Storm Don continues to make its way west-northwest toward the Texas coast this evening. Don has increased steadily in pressure over the past 18 to 24 hours. Wind speed remained 45 knots in the 5pm EDT advisory. The strongest thunderstorm activity continues to be south of the center, southeast of Brownsville, Texas, but the strongest winds are to the north according to Hurricane Hunter data. A mesoscale vortex developed on the southern end this afternoon with high radar reflectivity. Radar estimated rainfall rates are as much as 5 inches per hour to the south, and around 2 inches on the north side of the storm, but these are likely an overestimate, although rainfall rate is definitely higher on the southern end of this storm. It began raining in Brownsville, Texas in the 2pm CDT hour, and so far the airport has received 0.3 inches of rain. The heaviest thunderstorms still look to be to Brownsville's southeast.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from Brownsville, Texas at 5pm CDT.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Don
A Hurricane Hunter is currently in the storm, and center fixes suggest Don will make landfall south of Baffin Bay, Texas, in the next couple of hours. Tropical storm-force winds, should there be any, will most likely be seen in a swath from Baffin Bay to Corpus Christi. Once Don moves inland it is expected to dissipate quickly, and without having produced enough meaningful rainfall to impact any drought conditions. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center isn't predicting any rainfall that would exceed flash flood guidance, and no flood watches or warnings are in effect.
NHC Invest 91L
Moderate thunderstorm activity continues in Invest 91L this afternoon, and the Hurricane Center estimates that the axis of the wave is located near 42W. Estimates from satellites show that 91L has a moderate circulation at all levels, and the Advanced Scatterometer resolved a surface circulation early this morning.
Figure 2. Advanced Scatterometer pass over 91L at 7am EDT this morning. The wind barbs show a low-level circulation had formed near the most intense thunderstorms—a good sign of potential development.
Some of the reliable models—GFS, UKMET, and CMC—are developing 91L into at least a weak tropical cyclone. The ECMWF continues to show no development, but a more interesting solution, one that takes the wave on a southerly track. The GFDL does not develop Invest 91L, but the HWRF forecasts category 1 hurricane strength by August 1st. The track for 91L is likely a turn to the northwest when it reaches the Caribbean and a curve to the northeast around the Bahamas. The models that are developing the system do not suggest this is a U.S. landfall threat, although it's pretty early in the game to predict that, and I imagine the track will fluctuate over the next few days. Today the Hurricane Center gives the wave a 30% chance of development (now 50% in the 8pm EDT outlook) over the next 48 hours, and I'm around 40-50% over its lifetime.
I'll have a post tomorrow afternoon on the aftermath of Don as well as NHC Invest 91L.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Ah right. It may take turn to north by then, conditions being as speculated... lot of ifs but appreciate your taking time to explain possibilities.
Actually DRY AIR will follow 91L for a while.......as you can see by this above. Its mere SIZE will take a while to organize completely and Shear is not really a major issue. When this thing starts a tighter Wrap we will see Monster Born. It is turning a ton of Atmosphere!
An issue might be how fast it develops. The steering maps - right now - take a weak system on a brisk pace. The stronger it gets, the pace seems to slow a little. It's not a drop off, but a bit. As the trof comes in to steer the system late, that could be a factor later on, at a guess.
ABNT20 KNHC 301151
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON FORMER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DON...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN LOW
IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO ITS
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Levi's still asleep, later I'll ask him what he thinks of Remnant Don who booked across MX, is almost in to Baja waters, where he'll probably strengthen and then go on to threaten Japan.
Been tracking systems for a long time and Don is the strangest duck I've ever witnessed. Oh well. The twave in the Caribbean looks to be headed for TX, and if you use an XTRP straight line like XTRP does, it makes landfall exactly where Don did.
What's a girl got to do to get some rain around here??
Edit: using XTRP on 91 puts it into Corpus Christi.
91L probably depression by tonight/early tomorrow. Just now moving into that +28C isotherm near 50W. I think convection really explodes during DMAX tomorrow morning and we get Emily sometime on the 31st. Too early to say whether it hits the U.S... but if I lived in the Leeward Islands/Puerto Rico I would be preparing for a hurricane, starting now.
Great post!
have you tried a rain dance? you never know...nothing else has worked.
Actual track is between Mexico and Nova Scotia.
When atmospheric "ingredients" are there... then they can for sure agree early in the period.
That's what "they" called him.
Well that certainly narrows it down. ;-)
Yep i believe you got it nailed.
Be a stunning move if it does an about turn and decides the Azores is a great holiday destination this year!
Typically the way, stronger systems are more likely to gravitate to the weakness.
Wash your vehicle. It always works for me. Every time I wash my truck, it pours.
Lol! This might help your economy!
Looking like a classic around the horn track. 2 local TV mets this morning both thought that it would not be a threat to the US. As we all know, things change.
Yesterday, TWC had a team of 7 people covering the landfall of Don. You gotta laugh at that one:)
Looking forward to reading the technical banter when the weather nerds get going...
Very much appreciate the comraderie and guidance on this site. But a watched pot never boils so will be checking back later.
Last time my truck got washed was by TS Hermine, AND I leave my windows open.
Maybe if I plan an elaborate $50K outdoor wedding for someone........ and I know someone who's pregnant. Hm.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/1145 UTC 10.7N 49.3W TOO WEAK 91L
30/0545 UTC 11.2N 45.7W TOO WEAK 91L
Yes indeed. I bet they enjoyed the cool breeze that came through. Must've been a good day (paid day at that) on the beach.
They haven't been great this year, but this system isn't small, unlike Bret or Don, even cindy wasn't that big.
If it doesn't develop, they seem to want to take it through the Greater Antilles or just below them. That can lead to problems down the road.
The G-IV should help out.
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