Tropical Storm Don close to landfall; 91L tracks west
Tropical Storm Don continues to make its way west-northwest toward the Texas coast this evening. Don has increased steadily in pressure over the past 18 to 24 hours. Wind speed remained 45 knots in the 5pm EDT advisory. The strongest thunderstorm activity continues to be south of the center, southeast of Brownsville, Texas, but the strongest winds are to the north according to Hurricane Hunter data. A mesoscale vortex developed on the southern end this afternoon with high radar reflectivity. Radar estimated rainfall rates are as much as 5 inches per hour to the south, and around 2 inches on the north side of the storm, but these are likely an overestimate, although rainfall rate is definitely higher on the southern end of this storm. It began raining in Brownsville, Texas in the 2pm CDT hour, and so far the airport has received 0.3 inches of rain. The heaviest thunderstorms still look to be to Brownsville's southeast.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from Brownsville, Texas at 5pm CDT.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Don
A Hurricane Hunter is currently in the storm, and center fixes suggest Don will make landfall south of Baffin Bay, Texas, in the next couple of hours. Tropical storm-force winds, should there be any, will most likely be seen in a swath from Baffin Bay to Corpus Christi. Once Don moves inland it is expected to dissipate quickly, and without having produced enough meaningful rainfall to impact any drought conditions. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center isn't predicting any rainfall that would exceed flash flood guidance, and no flood watches or warnings are in effect.
NHC Invest 91L
Moderate thunderstorm activity continues in Invest 91L this afternoon, and the Hurricane Center estimates that the axis of the wave is located near 42W. Estimates from satellites show that 91L has a moderate circulation at all levels, and the Advanced Scatterometer resolved a surface circulation early this morning.
Figure 2. Advanced Scatterometer pass over 91L at 7am EDT this morning. The wind barbs show a low-level circulation had formed near the most intense thunderstorms—a good sign of potential development.
Some of the reliable models—GFS, UKMET, and CMC—are developing 91L into at least a weak tropical cyclone. The ECMWF continues to show no development, but a more interesting solution, one that takes the wave on a southerly track. The GFDL does not develop Invest 91L, but the HWRF forecasts category 1 hurricane strength by August 1st. The track for 91L is likely a turn to the northwest when it reaches the Caribbean and a curve to the northeast around the Bahamas. The models that are developing the system do not suggest this is a U.S. landfall threat, although it's pretty early in the game to predict that, and I imagine the track will fluctuate over the next few days. Today the Hurricane Center gives the wave a 30% chance of development (now 50% in the 8pm EDT outlook) over the next 48 hours, and I'm around 40-50% over its lifetime.
I'll have a post tomorrow afternoon on the aftermath of Don as well as NHC Invest 91L.
Angela
Reader Comments
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NOUS42 KNHC 301630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SAT 30 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z JULY TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-060
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL ATLANTIC)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 31/1530Z
D. 14.5N 56.0W
E. 31/1730Z TO 31/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 01/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02EEA SURV
C. 31/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 01/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 01/0400Z
D. 15.2N 58.1W
E. 01/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z.
3. REMARKS:
A. IF SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP, FLIGHT THREE
WILL BECOME A 01/1200Z INVEST MISSION.
B. 30/0600Z REQUIREMENT FOR TROPICAL STORM
DON CANCELED BY NHC AT 29/0100Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
Isabel didn't touch the Caribbean.
I like this one.
Link
Hey, I wouldn't mind that, we'd have a lot of good cookin'
But any that wouldn't get eaten would rot, and man would it smell bad...
Emily goes out to sea
Franklin dies out near the Bahamas
Gert though is in the SE Bahamas at the end of the run, but does not look very strong
you lose a ton in the translation that far out though and with all that said, 91L is a real threat to the NE part of the Islands; that is the focus now; anything else it complete speculation
If a Storm does not hit Texas.... it's a fish storm.
If a Storm does not hit NOLA ..... it's a fish storm.
Your Point?
that is because its not there it at 12.5N 48.6W
That's certainly one way of feeding the 5,000.
Even though this an ENSO Year... Analog's Favor East and West of us.
If anything, the GFS is showing that the African wave train has begun.
Do all storms wobble like that when they have pinholes?
So the answer to my question is yes, it is that different on the west coast....
Invest91
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
What is an ENSO year? Lol..I'm pretty sure every year has some sort of ENSO.
haha
his point is they are not fish storms if they impact other areas, but some feel that it has to affect them for the storm to matter
If 91L develops and hits the NE part of the Islands and then goes out to sea, it is NOT a fish storm, but be damn sure some will come on here and say it is
XXL/INV91/XX
MARK
12.25N/45.19W
Don evaporated in a WV starved atmosphere thru many layers.
EXTENDED FORECAST...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE DEEP EASTERLY WIND
FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS WIND CIRCULATION ABOUT THE RETREATING
HIGH AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE E COME INTO PLAY. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE AN EASTERLY REGIME
REDEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE HIGH REBUILDS EASTWARD. AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EMPHASIS SHIFTS TOWARD THE E MIDWEEK.
Yes they do...
+1000
Do not believe WINDSAT...that is incorrect.
if that is saying is ture then the nhc may upgrade too a TD today and then wait for the recon too uprade too a TS
JFV house
Well in the absence of the unreliable ASCAT and a hurricane hunter plane, that's the next best tool available to us.
000
FXUS62 KTAE 300807 CCA
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SPELLING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
407 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT BY TUESDAY...H2 HIGH HAS RETREATED
BACK TO SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WITH H5 ANCHORED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THERE. AT SAME TIME...A
STRONG CANADIAN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES GRADUALLY
AMPLIFYING REACHING THE NERN STATES ON WED. IN RESPONSE... UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG AND JUST OFF NE/MID-ATLC SEABOARD AND DIGS
DOWN THE EXTREME WRN ATLC WITH DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS
WAY SWWD AND ROTATING TOWARDS LOCAL AREA. ASSOCD WEAK VORT MAXES
MAY ROTATE WWD FROM TROUGH THRU PERIOD AND PROVIDE BRIEF LIFT OF
CONVECTION MOST DAYS. BY THURSDAY...TROUGH BASE ACROSS N/CNTRL FL
BEGINS TO REVERT TO A CUTOFF LOW. LOW PROGGED BY GFS TO DRIFT
ACROSS CNTRL FL AND THEN INTO GULF OF MEX ON FRI. AT
SURFACE...AREA FRONT LINGERS FOR A FEW DAYS THEN DISSIPATES AS
UPSTREAM HIGH PUSHES SEWD...AND BERMUDA HIGH SAGS SWD TO SRN
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MIDWEEK.
BY WEEKEND...TROUGH WEAKENS AND THEN DISSIPATES AS PLAINS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK EWD TO OVER LOCAL REGION. WITH SHORTWAVES
SLATED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR N/W...PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG SEA BREEZE. FINALLY END OF PERIOD MAY BE MODIFIED BY POSSIBLE
TROPICAL SYSTEM. PER NHC...KEEPING AN EYE ON LARGE LOW WELL EAST OF
WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH FAVORABLE SHOT AT BECOMING TROPICAL CYCLONE
AS IT MOVES WNW.
Why is incorrect?
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