Tropical Storm Don close to landfall; 91L tracks west
Tropical Storm Don continues to make its way west-northwest toward the Texas coast this evening. Don has increased steadily in pressure over the past 18 to 24 hours. Wind speed remained 45 knots in the 5pm EDT advisory. The strongest thunderstorm activity continues to be south of the center, southeast of Brownsville, Texas, but the strongest winds are to the north according to Hurricane Hunter data. A mesoscale vortex developed on the southern end this afternoon with high radar reflectivity. Radar estimated rainfall rates are as much as 5 inches per hour to the south, and around 2 inches on the north side of the storm, but these are likely an overestimate, although rainfall rate is definitely higher on the southern end of this storm. It began raining in Brownsville, Texas in the 2pm CDT hour, and so far the airport has received 0.3 inches of rain. The heaviest thunderstorms still look to be to Brownsville's southeast.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from Brownsville, Texas at 5pm CDT.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Don
A Hurricane Hunter is currently in the storm, and center fixes suggest Don will make landfall south of Baffin Bay, Texas, in the next couple of hours. Tropical storm-force winds, should there be any, will most likely be seen in a swath from Baffin Bay to Corpus Christi. Once Don moves inland it is expected to dissipate quickly, and without having produced enough meaningful rainfall to impact any drought conditions. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center isn't predicting any rainfall that would exceed flash flood guidance, and no flood watches or warnings are in effect.
NHC Invest 91L
Moderate thunderstorm activity continues in Invest 91L this afternoon, and the Hurricane Center estimates that the axis of the wave is located near 42W. Estimates from satellites show that 91L has a moderate circulation at all levels, and the Advanced Scatterometer resolved a surface circulation early this morning.
Figure 2. Advanced Scatterometer pass over 91L at 7am EDT this morning. The wind barbs show a low-level circulation had formed near the most intense thunderstorms—a good sign of potential development.
Some of the reliable models—GFS, UKMET, and CMC—are developing 91L into at least a weak tropical cyclone. The ECMWF continues to show no development, but a more interesting solution, one that takes the wave on a southerly track. The GFDL does not develop Invest 91L, but the HWRF forecasts category 1 hurricane strength by August 1st. The track for 91L is likely a turn to the northwest when it reaches the Caribbean and a curve to the northeast around the Bahamas. The models that are developing the system do not suggest this is a U.S. landfall threat, although it's pretty early in the game to predict that, and I imagine the track will fluctuate over the next few days. Today the Hurricane Center gives the wave a 30% chance of development (now 50% in the 8pm EDT outlook) over the next 48 hours, and I'm around 40-50% over its lifetime.
I'll have a post tomorrow afternoon on the aftermath of Don as well as NHC Invest 91L.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I'll go with 80%..
Okinawa may be impacted jason
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Must be following 95L to the CPAC
the high over the eastern atlantic doesn't leave much room for it to miss North Carolina either. That is if it tries to re-curve
1st of all thas 96E not 95L 2nd of all thats in the E PAC not CPAC and 3rd of all that is this off of MX in the E PAC
Could this be what happens to 91L too???
Time will tell.
There was a mesocyclone east of Brownsville and south of the center yesterday. Quite visible on radar.
Right..
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301743
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO ITS
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
ABNT20 KNHC 301743
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
80%
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Upped to 80!
I can back this up. BTW, Typhoon Muifa is bombing out big time, went from a TS to Cat 4 Typhoon in 12hrs.
07/30 0 GMT 15.80 134.00 70 N/A Tropical Storm
07/30 6 GMT 16.20 133.00 100 N/A Category 2
07/30 12 GMT 16.50 132.70 135 N/A Category 4
20% it wont.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011
...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DOPPLER WIND DISPLAYS FROM
THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED
MESOCYCLONE IN A STRONG CONVECTIVE CELL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER AND THE PRIMARY CONVECTION...
Was also mentioned in an NHC discussion.
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -73.96 LAT: 19.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.09 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.23
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -75.16 LAT: 19.93 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.28 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 65.26
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -76.21 LAT: 20.55 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.84 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.70
As i stated earlier with that high in the Plains/Rockies it will make quite tough for any cv storm to make the trek.
7.3 / 905.9mb/149.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.4 7.4
one word WOW!
tweets from typhoonfury
@typhoonfury
James Reynolds
Currently saving entire 16 hour satellite loop of typhoon Muifa's ULTRA EXPLOSIVE intensifcation - still trying to get my head round this!
@typhoonfury
James Reynolds
I can't see myself sleeping before 18z JMA is released, this is a historic storm and I'm pissed off I missed 12 hours of it!!
Takes it on a fairly southern track.
Possibly, might veer north of you guys however. Similar to Earl.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED WITHIN THE
PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 10 NM EYE
WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN TO SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS SUPPRESSED ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THAT
SIDE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED DUE
TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO
IMPROVED OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SYSTEM TURNED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
THEREFORE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS WALKED WESTWARD SLIGHTLY.
B. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
ALTHOUGH THE DOMINANT DEEP-LAYER STEERING RIDGE IS CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST STRENGTHENS. THE SLOWING
TRANSLATION SPEED IS ALSO AN INDICATOR OF THE TURN. TY 11W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU
48, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD BUILD IN AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW 11W TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD.
C. THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD KADENA AIR BASE. AT THIS TIME
OHC WILL DROP OFF AND CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A SHARPER TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH ECMWF, UKMO, JGSM, AND NOGAPS. GFDN AND
GFS ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS.
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