Tropical Storm Don close to landfall; 91L tracks west
Tropical Storm Don continues to make its way west-northwest toward the Texas coast this evening. Don has increased steadily in pressure over the past 18 to 24 hours. Wind speed remained 45 knots in the 5pm EDT advisory. The strongest thunderstorm activity continues to be south of the center, southeast of Brownsville, Texas, but the strongest winds are to the north according to Hurricane Hunter data. A mesoscale vortex developed on the southern end this afternoon with high radar reflectivity. Radar estimated rainfall rates are as much as 5 inches per hour to the south, and around 2 inches on the north side of the storm, but these are likely an overestimate, although rainfall rate is definitely higher on the southern end of this storm. It began raining in Brownsville, Texas in the 2pm CDT hour, and so far the airport has received 0.3 inches of rain. The heaviest thunderstorms still look to be to Brownsville's southeast.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity from Brownsville, Texas at 5pm CDT.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Don
A Hurricane Hunter is currently in the storm, and center fixes suggest Don will make landfall south of Baffin Bay, Texas, in the next couple of hours. Tropical storm-force winds, should there be any, will most likely be seen in a swath from Baffin Bay to Corpus Christi. Once Don moves inland it is expected to dissipate quickly, and without having produced enough meaningful rainfall to impact any drought conditions. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center isn't predicting any rainfall that would exceed flash flood guidance, and no flood watches or warnings are in effect.
NHC Invest 91L
Moderate thunderstorm activity continues in Invest 91L this afternoon, and the Hurricane Center estimates that the axis of the wave is located near 42W. Estimates from satellites show that 91L has a moderate circulation at all levels, and the Advanced Scatterometer resolved a surface circulation early this morning.
Figure 2. Advanced Scatterometer pass over 91L at 7am EDT this morning. The wind barbs show a low-level circulation had formed near the most intense thunderstorms—a good sign of potential development.
Some of the reliable models—GFS, UKMET, and CMC—are developing 91L into at least a weak tropical cyclone. The ECMWF continues to show no development, but a more interesting solution, one that takes the wave on a southerly track. The GFDL does not develop Invest 91L, but the HWRF forecasts category 1 hurricane strength by August 1st. The track for 91L is likely a turn to the northwest when it reaches the Caribbean and a curve to the northeast around the Bahamas. The models that are developing the system do not suggest this is a U.S. landfall threat, although it's pretty early in the game to predict that, and I imagine the track will fluctuate over the next few days. Today the Hurricane Center gives the wave a 30% chance of development (now 50% in the 8pm EDT outlook) over the next 48 hours, and I'm around 40-50% over its lifetime.
I'll have a post tomorrow afternoon on the aftermath of Don as well as NHC Invest 91L.
Angela
Reader Comments
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first of all its not a fish storm. second there is NO 00000 gurantee that 91L recurves. its all about timing..
Find plot of LGEM, SHIP or DSHP and you will have the preliminary NHC track. Look at track in 18Z SHIPS
Don't be so sure Jason, it depends on how strong it becomes, if it doesn't form soon, it will hit some kind of landmass.
Wow! 91L just got look that about it! I think some are in for a bad blow!
Jason, I think that we all know what your thoughts are for the system, no need to keep repeating yourself. You loose credibility when you do that. Earlier this season your posts were awesome, well documented and informative. People were responding positively to you.
didnt even see that wave because its void o any convection due to the SAL and shear.. interesting solution although as you stated in your video the trough would pick it up more if it was stronger but a cat 1 in the NE carribean considered strong in your opinion?
I'll ask one more time...Where did the term "recurve" come from? From the context of the discussions here, it seems to mean to turn out to sea. Isn't that just a curve out to sea? To "recurve" would imply it's already curving out to sea (or somewhere) and then curves again, thus recurving. Or does "recurve" mean something else?
Well, stranger names have been retired.
I think the term 'recurve' just came about because the storms are first coming from the sea, and when the turn around and head back, whilst it is only a curve as such, the term 'recurve' is used because it is going back to where it came from.
If I remember correctly there was a discussion about this last year as well ...I dont know if it was ever resolved or a good reason given
there really means no difference and recurve basically suggests moving out of the way of a landmass or is pulled up by a trough
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Haha, welcome to WU!
Not too shabby either, 91L.
"hurricanes hate running into land"
The interaction with land often changes their direction entirely. What I mean is this: When the storm reaches PR and Haiti it will either curve north or west in order to move back over the warm water. Hurricanes have this odd "almost alive" pattern where they seek the quickest way off land. You see it in the Yucatan all the time as well. A storm will hit near Chetumal on the Yucatan and the WNW motion will be heading towards the area just west of Merida, MX but than the storm curves NW and comes off north east of Merida.
Hurricane Emily 0f 2005 is a GOOD example of this.
Link
You see the same thing in Florida a lot as you can see with Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The storm makes landfall near Miami moving westward but then cuts sharply WSW and moving back over the water.
Link
Bottom Line is this: 90% of Storms will always take the shortest route off islands and peninsulas.
We have to get some good formation going before the models settle down - still a LONG ways to go.
Exactly. What we're hoping for is a system that moves quickly pass the islands Northward. Up and Away toward our friendly trough.
Worst, in the short-term. A weaker system skirting the islands moving Westward to Hispaniola dumping rain & subsequently 'missing' the trough.
After that we're looking at quite a bit of dangerous uncertainty.
Link
LOL.. yesterday he was saying there was no way it would recurve
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN (T1108)
3:00 AM JST July 31 2011
==========================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Vietnam
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Nock-Ten (994 hPa) located at 19.1N 104.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots
Dvorak Intensity: Overland
Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 19.1N 99.0E - Tropical Depression (Overland Thailand)
Jason is a troll, put him on ignore. I have several of his handles on ignore.
They also seem to like bays and rivers too! Don showed you that when he made landfall in Baffin Bay instead of Borwnsville where the land juts out.
see you later
Invest91
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Fay moved over water a lot, moved offshore, then inland, offshore then inland, etc.
NAM is taking a minimal hurricane just South of PR in 72-84 hours. I think Emily will be close to a Hurricane before it get to the Leeward islands. Kind of reminds me of David in 79'
http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-david-1979
invest 91L will go out to sea will not hit the east coast at all!!
It was this, then not going out to sea, then this again. Which one will it be Jason?
was thinking the same thing....
Thanks... still doesn't make a whole lot of sense though. :)
Is this the U QB??
looks like a td although its still a little broad. definantly a td tomorrow after recon goes out
That's a decent answer... thanks.
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