Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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That image shows you how much 91L has improved during the day today.
a qui en dominicana le estamos echando el ojo!!!
There is that tropical wave you mentioned in your blog to the northeast of 91L/Emily. It will be interesting to see what kind of affect it has on 91L's track.
Noobie here. My family and I are headed to Grand Cayman tomorrow from Kentucky. We are praying for good weather. Do you think 91L or the developing system around Grand Cayman will affect our week coming up? Would love to hear your responses. Won't that storm breaking out now around Cayman and Yucatan be moving on soon enough?
Yes, W115, I'm still watching the one near the Yucatan....hoping maybe for some rain for the drought areas, at least....
The GFS develops that tropical wave about to emerge off western Africa. That, or the one just behind it. The model has it as a tropical cyclone within the next five days.
You should be fine in Grand Cayman from 91L. However, there is a tropical wave in the western Caribbean that may give you guys some clouds and rain. It should move out in a few days though.
The next one to come off is developed by the GFS.
Why does it say Tropical Storm when it shows a Cat5?
You'll be fine. Hope you have a great time while you're here.
I know, that high zapped ole Don like a candle snuffer.....lol...
I have been to about a dozen countries in Europe and have always had great fun. In terms of weather, I have to say Denmark was the most intersting. As a former upstate NY'r, the extended daylight was really cool during my visit one June. Also the changing weather off the North Sea/Baltic Sea was interesting.
I was disappointed with London. Sunny and 90 degrees. Boring.
Very revealing. The somewhat elongated nature on this animation clearly coalescing into more of a circular swirl. At this rate it would not be unreasonable to expect a named system by end of day Sunday.
My favorite:
I'm not to knowledged in this, matter fact I don't know anything about it, LOL, but still curious.
I think it was Keeper about 4 months ago who said that this year was going to be a bit exceptional, well I just think that we are going to go into a chain reaction of these storms for the next few months, I don't know from a qualified point of view but there are so many things that are going on making the weather news this year and we have a long way to go yet,one of these storms is going to get big very soon, then is Russian roulette.
It beat Wilma from TS to Cat 5 by six hours. Muifa made it in 18. Wilma did it in 24.
To be fair, there are probably hundreds of people who haven't the first idea how (in)accurate storm forecasting can be, who find this blog every year. I wouldn't call them foolish, but rather innocently unaware of how imprecise the science/art of hurricane forecasting can be.
Usually, a non-judgmental explanation of all the constantly changing variables, and what the pro forecasters are watching and why, is sufficient for them to go "oh" or "wow, I never knew how complicated it is" and encourages them to stick around to watch and learn.
España?
Definitely keep a close eye on the situation at least until Wednesday. By late Monday all should have a much better handle on what's upcoming.
I would suspect that, whilst a direct hit may not occur, there's a reasonable chance of it. Even if there isn't a direct hit, you'll probably get some rain and gusty winds. Most of the models have it fairly close to Haiti.
Its rising look at the visible sat, Daylight on the East Night on west
Not really in this case, because the ridging over northeastern Asia isn't getting reflected over North America in the current pattern. However, later in August and September, that pattern may get reflected more, and thus may be more related. Ridging over northeastern Asia (extremely persistent the last couple months) is correlated with ridging over southeast Canada and the northeast U.S. during the hurricane season.
Wow, that is really amazing. I hope that we never experience something like that in the Atlantic again.
Agreed. My very best personal modeling of patterns and such indicated this year just might be another anomaly. We seem to be in very unusual patterns lately. But, that's just me.
I hope we do, but out in the middle of the ocean during a recurve.
Looking westward in the north Pacific, there really isn't a trough deep enough on the horizon to turn Emily. Especially since her elongated structure is so poorly organized. She may be spinning nicely, but she has a long way to go to pull those big arms in.
Based upon the positions of Cindy and Don, and where they appeared on my forecast chart, I'm going to guess that Emily will hit CONUS, possibly on the Texas coast. That is, if my suspicions are correct about how you interpret this forecast. That being, red is for Gulf Coast, and green is for Atlantic Coast. Where they meet in the middle could mean both, which would point to Florida. I really need one more storm to get a better handle on this, especially as it relates to possible strength.
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