Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 139 — Blog Index
The time when convection tends to be at it's highest which is around midnight.
Those are my favorite animations. I wish there was a way to make that an auto-updating desktop on my computer. :)
Not out of the question at all. The more west and west the models go, the more i'm worried.
nope it is around sunrise
diurnal maximum is the time in the early morning usually around 5am-7am local time. This is when the atmosphere is the coolest, allowing the storm an easier time to grow thunderstorms due to the difference between the sea water and the upper atmosphere.
hope that helps!
Woah, how can this storm become a TD IMMEDIATELY after exiting Afica?
12 hrs ago.
18Z
No Question it is coming. Looks like a Closed Low is very close if not Now!
91L/INV/XX
MARK CENTER OF IMAGE
14.950N/55.23W
Err, the was before reliable record. The 1928 cane was a Cape Verde. IIRC. This is not.
Taco LoL :o)
That happens frequently
Who is that? I recognize the track but can't figure out which storm.
Nevermind. 1928 Lake Okeechobee. Saw it in the URL as I hit submit.
LOL Taco...it is confused as to what to do because of all the opinions on the WU blog IMO...snicker snicker
Been a while since the center is actually where the most convection is, lol.
Not when is 0-20 miles off :/
Hurrican Hugo 1989 did...tho it is not common place, it does happen....
Fresh one up anytime now.
This has always been true.
1928 Okeechobee hurricane
Im worried, because typically when a system forms... the models have it hitting florida.. and then the models typically shift away... and the storm goes away... this time the models took it out to sea.... and now its getting close to florida... so it might go to florida.
IIRC, early this morning it was showing the eastern "half" of 91L in a different location than the visible satellite. P451 was the one who spotted it out of whack, he can probably describe it a lot better than I. The only reason I'm here so late is that I'm waiting for my wife to finish watching her movie so I can go to bed. :)
It needs some more organization. Reminds me of Adrian.
Seriously, the saving grace for this system at the moment is that it is not predicted to be stronger than a strong cat1/weak cat 2. But that is not written. It also would cause significant damage and potential loss of life if it follows the contours of the coast or smacks one of the numerous metropolitan areas head on.
I know what ya mean....would love to have a big radar screen on my ceiling over the bed...lol...like this one
I'm not even looking at the models until we actually have classification. Anyone remember what the models first showed Ike doing? I do...they had Ike moving north on the east side of Florida. Where did Ike end up? In my backyard when I lived in Clear Lake,Texas.
1 "Galveston" 1900 8,000–12,000†
2 "Okeechobee" 1928 2,500+† 3 Katrina 2005 1,836
4 "Cheniere Caminada" 1893 1,100–1,400*
5 "Sea Islands" 1893 1,000–2,000†
6 "Florida Keys" 1919 778
7 "Georgia" 1881 700†
Yeah, that's something I've noticed as well. I'm in south Florida, so all eyes are looking to 91L.
Oh. I must have missed that. I generally don't use the CIMSS vorticity as a center locator or anything more important than a general feel for the distribution of the vorticity, as the product is prone to errors. It's a combination of computer analysis of satellite imagery and model input, so it can be goofy at times.
Geek LOL
Dont like to speculate with long range forecasts but yes theres a slight possiblity. The key feature in my opinion based on GFS to watch for will be how long that brief period of ridging lasts will likely determine if we get a mainland US landfall or not. At this point its something to keep tabs on throughout the work week but nothing to get overly concerned about.
I wasn't looking at models, I was looking at what is supposed to be present state. :)
Believe me, I harp on people keeping an eye on things, and I cite Ike (howdy from Katy) as a prime example, along with Betsy, and a few others.
if it follows the models sofla is good. im not taking bets though
Yep, Ike was supposed to go out to sea, then it was east coast and Florida, 91L may just take the southern route thru the Carribbean
Thanks!
Viewing: 5201 - 5251
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 139 — Blog Index