Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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hugo left the African coast on 9-9-89
declared TD on 9-10-89, TS on 9-11-89, and a hurricane by 9-13-89
That's a great point you make. Models tend to be a bit unpredictable when it come to waves, because the steering pattern effect on them is not well defined yet. Remember the stronger the system, the higher the clouds and the better the steering effect will be, but in this case the fact that we do not have a storm formed yet is making steering prediction a bit tricky. Nevertheless if you do not count the GFDL or the HWRF, models such as the GFS or the ECMWF can prove useful, but not with a high confidence. We will have to sit and wait a bit longer to see what will finally happen with 91L. One thing is for sure, the longer it continue to move west the greater the chances for a US landfall.
I have that same question for him. We dont need more rain as plenty has fallen in 2011.
warming of the upper atmosphere (mainly the thermosphere) by the Sun.
D-Min is the cooler temperature variations aloft.
D-Max is the warmer temperature variations aloft.
Link
It also really depends what part of Florida. It's bigger than it seems. And depends on whether one is on the coast or inland.
So do I.
GFS was horrid last year until Danielle, and then had a good run with those CV storms. We are just getting to the ramp-up part of the season, and model performance may improve.
think I'm too old to be a geek..lol..more like a visual junkie.....:O
91L/INV/XX
MARK
14.950N/54.86W
I Doubt this will hit Texas.
Thats like saying that Tropical Storm in the Westren Gulf of Mexico would do an 180 and hit Florida
Maybe like decent size tropical storm .. like near 60mph IMO .. I believe the stronger the storm the more of a turn it will do.. A weak of storm of near 50 could maintain its course.. Or could pull a surprise on us do w/e it wants to do.. lol
That's exactly what they said about Ike, thanks for playing the bonehead
Kinda got caught up on the weather. Don sounded very much like the first invest through ECFL earlier this year..dehydrated on arrival. It did help break our drought in the long run.
As for 91L, the models aren't going so much with climo..
Never to old to be a geek. :)
NOTHING WRONG WITH THE MODELS.....they are doing just fine. People are really trying to read way to much in to them to see things they are wishing for. Don was a great example........Don was barely Don.....as the Models never really wanted to develop him as a Closed LOw. Storm never was an organized system just as the MOdels showed.
Invest 91L is doing just as the models have been saying when looking at the large Pic. Many are wishcasting plane and simple.
Thanks! That I understood
It looks like it's finally leaving the influence of the TUTT... Shear should be less of a problem now.......... With the wave in front of it the enviro should be quite moist as well.... I expect it will get it's act together this afternoon....... :o)
How about update the site tomorrow, since it has been forever :P
I'll do the fb page.
Of course anytime :)
Yellow!
Jeez I feel like Jason... XD
In Ike's case, it was because the synoptic pattern was very fragile. That seems to be the case with 91L too (not that I'm saying it's going to hit Texas, mind you).
Not so far fetched.
A Track West and a little South would make some sense...
The post states (among other things):
"Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts."
FYI, Harlingen is approx. 25 miles north of Brownsville, and, 90 miles south of Baffin Bay. Kingsville, TX and Corpus Christi, TX are approx. 15 and 40 miles north of Baffin Bay, respectively; both closer to Baffin Bay than Harlingen is to Baffin Bay - although north of Baffin Bay as compared to Harlingen (south of Baffin Bay). Isn't geography - including geographical landmarks of importance in meterology - particularly in communicating to the LAY PUBLIC?
Best regards,
ive had enough, first person ever...
Me neither.
You mean this?
Recon goes in at 8AM...Not getting up to track it, can't.
You just need to include the "wow!!! look at 55 West!!!" starting at the bottom right edge of the image.
Really, he is getting more annoying all the time.
Well, sure did miss your smiling face....sounds like you had one of those camping trips I've had in the past...full of drama....do post some pics :) Oh...and Don was a DUD...and 91L is getting on everyone's nerves !
glad to see some people are returning (456 and future). If only we could get Drak to pop his head back in...
EDT? or Z?
No. 91L is becoming self-sustaining.
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