Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Mines on the day before Pearl Harbor day
That's why I'm saying if this thing doesn't start a north component soon it will have to contend with it's circulation pulling in dry air from South America. There was a system a few years back which had all the makings of becoming a cat 5 because everything was laid out perfectly in the air patterns and such but it followed too far south and pulled in that dry air of SA and never recovered from it. It ended up just going into the EPAC...what there was of it anyway.
GREAT JOB on the Graphic.....Sure has the appearance NOW of a Closed Surface Low, But Convergence totally Stinks. Not sure it is completely to the Surface Yet!
Bouy Data says NO SURFACE LOW........NOT YET!
Conditions at 41040 as of
0250 GMT on 08/01/2011:
Wind Direction (WDIR):
ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):
9.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST):
11.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT):
2.7 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD):
10 sec
Average Period (APD):
6.3 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):
1014.0 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):
+1.2 mb ( Rising
0300 GMT on 08/01/2011:
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):
1010.8 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):
+0.4 mb ( Rising
Knew something was missing on this blog. Missed your posts on the blog because you always provide something unique for us to look at.
Full size image
Link
oh that's good to hear lol
Complete Update
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
I'm pretty sure it has. Out to 39 hours...
Yes you are right I think I went with out sleep a few times in 2005 :o)
Taco :o)
nothing where i usually get it, from huffman's page, you have a link?
Link
trust me it was much different. Lesss bickering and we would be lucky to get to 1000 comments if there was a major hurricane threatening land
When deciding on the steering patterns of a storm we usually don't look at the NAO signal to determine where the storm will go. The NAO is a measure of the pressure difference between the Iceland low and Azores high, which says a lot about the strength of the two semi-permanent features but says very little about the positioning.
Although it can be implied that under a neutral or negative NAO recurvature is less likely since the trough should be weaker under a negative NAO, this is not always the case. Just like we saw with 2010, we had a negative NAO all year long, yet strong troughing over the east US to recurve most storms.
I was just gonna do that LOL
Don't think so..........those bouys are not wrong. They have been do readings all day. Seem to be working fine!
I posted it too. I got no response as well
Link
No idea, but I evacuated Biloxi.......the first time.
DOH!
Its actually following the GFDL model as i pointed out this morning and got so heckeld for.....LOL
ROFLMAO........IT IS NOT A CLOSED SURFACE LOW.....get a bite!
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #50
TYPHOON MUIFA (T1109)
12:00 PM JST August 1 2011
==========================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Muifa (940 hPa) located at 19.3N 133.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots
Dvorak Intensity:
Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
200 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 22.1N 133.5E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 23.6N 131.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
69 HRS: 24.9N 128.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Masters was strict during the period as well so they were no trolls. I hear the blog was much different back then.
Saw that one flare up and heading to SA earlier. That whole area is just nuts right now. A forecasters dream/nightmare?
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