Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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24 hrs, valid at:
311800z --- 18.5n 132.6e
Max sustained winds - 150 kt, gusts 180 kt
---
36 hrs, valid at:
010600z --- 19.5n 132.8e
Max sustained winds - 155 kt, gusts 190 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
Yeah, that is a good scenario.
Maybe they're trying to compensate for a small... eye. I'd rather they would just buy a Corvette or something. ;)
Oh, has anyone seen aquak9 lately?
Hi, I'm no weather expert by any means, but I'm 46 and seen quite a bit of weather in my day, when storms make up close to us its great, they usually move away by time they become full blown storms or hurricanes, Its the ones like 91L that we watch because regardless of what models might predict, things change so its watch, wait and see. By all means come on down, as far I know we have a great evacuation plan for all, especially tourists that want to leave. Contrary to what many might think Grand Cayman is a very safe place to be in a hurricane, we have no mountains, hill or rivers here, plus we are not on a continental shelf , meaning the waters are deep and we are basically protected from serious storm surge, Ivan was an exception in my opinion to any rule. Come and enjoy!! PS , just to add we have some of the strictest building codes in the world and some the best build buildings!
Isn't the sun rising on the monster that is Mufia :)
Yes, about half way done.
Affecting Puerto Rico in 96 hours:
Link
I am also remembering the number of times we waited, and waited, and waited, to finally see the NW turn from the W or WNW track the storm persisted on despite forecasts of much earlier turns.
SO I suppose those of us on the northern side of the Antilles will be keep in watch - just in case. It's not like there isn't precedent...
I saw your video on it a while ago...very informative.
I don't post much, but I'm awfully tired of your outlandish claims, especially since you don't back up anything. Will you kindly please sod off or atleast quit saying such things? No one knows what it'll do in seven days. Enough.
May I quote you??? Kidding. You're right though... strange times we're in.
I was in Seville {Spain,} on Thursday and it was 42/c, on Friday I was in Manchester UK and it was 18/c and raining, the weather forecast is for an heat wave at 22/c next week after it stops raining, take your pick?
I suppose we move round Europe like you move round the lower 48, but I really do sympathise with your drought problems in the southern states, hope you get relief soon.
12Z
Link
18Z
Link
Put that guy on your ignore list. He has been a problem for many the last couple of years
Especially if you get to see it fall apart within the same timeframe.
The rise and fall of a Category 5 hurricane within 36 hours would be compelling to watch.
Awww! He/she is thinking a half world away.Look at it like this, its setting here and rising there!:)I know you're were just pointing out the time difference!
He.
Image please. TIA
Still kicks it back out east of Florida. Much closer to the CONUS than the last run though.
That would make his claims just as valid as anyone elses. Let him be
It's sickening to see how you guys pick on him, let it go, or block him
A weather geek tag, lol
I wasn't sure, someone last year identified you as a 13 year old girl, but I wasn't sure thats why I wrote He/she, now I know, my apologies!
Yep..
1.) The ridge builds back in and the system is shunted westward.
2.) The steering currents are too weak after the trough moves out, and Emily continues to move out to sea anyways.
Relax.
Should be some nice surf for Florida... `tis about time!
Wrong. How do you figure? Atleast other bloggers use wx maps, steering currents, even model runs to back up their claims and theories. But alas, I'll just use the ignore feature
Hurricane Hunters deployed to St. Croix today to begin flying the low pressure system 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. From the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center: ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A 80% OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W-NW AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Touché, but in reference to the satellite photo, the sun would be rising.
I wouldn't be claiming no US landfalls just yet. It's really too early to tell.
There are a lot of people on this forum trying to appreciate tropical weather and better understand it. You do nothing but copy and post extremely available links and pictures. Please do not insinuate you "get the weather".
I agree..the more the bahamas come into play, the chances are we could be seeing a conus hit as well, until its 400 miles east of NC waving goodbye, I aint counting it out yet..
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