Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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It keeps 91L very broad and weak well into the Caribbean.
84hr:
For awhile I thought it might go the other way, but amazingly, it didn't. The larger and stronger mid-level circulation seemed to be what won out.
Fascinating to watch ...
Well I definitely apologize for any drama caused here. I didn't have on ignore because I do like some of his imput but there comes a point when its too much.
Not good.....
so do you think there is any model that reliable at this point with the lack of recon date?
Probably because the initialization puts the low center southwest of the greatest surface convergence, essentially making the model see the system as much less organized than it actually is.
You're right, didn't even notice that. Good eye.
I think the big shift in the 18z and 0z runs into the middle of Hispaniola is an overreaction based on the confusion today on the exact location of 91L. I expect the models to shift back closer to PR tomorrow, though the Dominican Republic is certainly still in great danger.
Thank you!....there is no reason for his constant riducle of my every post it seems........he started this morning as i was just tired of it already. DONE
Yep. We might have to throw out most of the 00z guidance. I'd put the dominant circulation up around 15N. The GFS initializes it around 13N.
yeah.... mississippi was talking about you...
The BAM MODELS seen very Logical.
Directly...
AL, 91, 2011080100, , BEST, 0, 133N, 565W, 25, 1009
Lol...Ding ding ding...We have a winner!
LOL, the GFS is as confused as a lot of us are. I believe this one is going to cause Wailing And Gnashing Of Teeth!
Must be following the highly accurate, infallible, LSM model.
Thats a little awkward.... hahaha
Yeah, that's where the GFS is initializing. Like Levi and I said, that doesn't appear to be the correct coordinate.
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I know......
LOL. You are correct.
Looks closer to 14N to me.
Please don't start feeling safe based on one model cycle. PR is right in the middle of this situation. It will be a while yet before we know if the island will get the hit or not.
It's probably pretty close to 14.5N, 55W.
Oh well, it's a messy system to begin with. That whole region is a'bubblin!
thank you!!!! this is what i have been looking for. someone to talk about steering and not models. i am glad you posted this. this is real information on what is going on now, not what the models are saying should be happening.
I'm so confused....
It'll be close. Today has been a mess because the system was a mess, and without a defined center, the track has a large degree of certainty even in the short-term. We're just now getting it to start developing, and when it finally gets classified, we should be able to hone in better. Until then, uncertainty remains, and both the Dominican Republic and PR should be preparing.
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