Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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That looks scary.
It definitely needs to be watched for developed. It is well-defined, and very large. The GFS model has been developing this wave for several runs now, so there is a pretty good chance that it will develop. We will watch it over the next few days as it treks across the Eastern Atlantic.
Yikes! That thing is huge!
Ask again in 10 days
Thankfully those waves loose steam after changing their fuel sources.
I was thinking about this earlier - If 91L was caught up in the trough, but the high builds back in and forces it back westward.
Levi, you think it could happen?
How a Wave transitions and develops downstream in the Atlantic is what matters.
Thanks!! :)
I think TropicalAnalystwx13 is
No, he is actually younger than me, which makes him young young, lol.
It already is 80%
He mentioned on the blog earlier that he was 12, which makes him 2 years younger than him. I was enjoying being the youngest person on here too!
Let's get back to weather.
Who are you talking about?
What's with the 100 different handles?
Lol,Pat, the dot right in the middle may be the center, beginning to fire new convection. Nice capture.
Always.
he likes doing that he likes spaming the blogs wuth his new names wish i got 13 of them on | Ignore
I say they call it.
ummm....
Ah, we have a joker.
The fact that you have a need for so many different handles to avoid ignores and negative ratings pretty much says it all.
Anyway, weather. I'd say still 80% at next TWO.
LOL..
Your not kidding but watch out when they only loose steam for only a day or so like Earl and Igor ( if my memory serves me right ) did last year.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 30 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Keep your eye on that speck...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND YUCATAN
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO ITS
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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