Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Winds in Tobago are currently southerly.....
There is a Low Chance this gets into the Gulf of mexico....... Which is highly unlikely... because the Trough will pick it up and pull it NW/N off or on Florida...
If it did get into the Gulf... Texas would be protected and Lousiana to the Panhandle of Florida would be at risk.
I just made one. I'll have another tomorrow morning.
But it is slightly south of where 90L was and seems to be on roughly the same heading for the moment. And at various times there were models showing 90L heading toward Florida. Nothing is set in stone as of yet.
Could it be another Katrina? Since we seem to be throwing potential analagous storms around.
It's probably close enough in dryness and direction of movement and the wv sats.
Dropsonde Obs #11 from yesterday afternoon. Approx 130 miles NE of Guadeloupe:
select # 11 at the top of the page and scroll to the bottom for the sounding plot
Gonzo Dropsondes Archive
2000+ at least from JFV and his Shower Curtains.
Thanks - I just caught it when the page refreshed...
There is still a lot of dry air to it's west and north....
But there is an awful lot of moisture behind it and that is concerning me right now..................
Man I hope Not we donot need another one of those thats for sure.... Due to the fact that FEMA is already "Broke" because of the Tornado Outbreak in the spring.... So lets keep it as a small TS or even a Cat1....
Taco :o)
Link
A ELONGATED LOW
B SHEAR
C TWO VORTEX
D just under performing
09
NOUS42 KNHC 311500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 PM EDT SUN 31 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-061
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 01/1800Z, 02/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0405A CYCLONE
C. 01/1600Z
D. 14.7N 57.5W
E. 01/1730Z TO 02/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 02/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0505A CYCLONE
C. 01/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
C.
So much for the 100% chance from the NHC.
91L/INV/XX
MARK
13.95N/57.25
Says we have take off at 1600Z, that's just over an hour. What's the point? Last recon just left and there's no well defined circulation, I doubt it's going to have it's act together in a few hours.
Ya know I thought the 100% was warranted yesterday morning. I thought it was almost there, I really did. Then I analyze and look at this system this morning and really believe the 90% chance is overdone. But what do I know..LOL
And Dolly still managed to get very close to major hurricane status.
You betting on it?
E. Downcasters have it downright depressed
F. Feels like stirring up the South Florida blogging circuit
..The Magical 91L Mystery Tour is coming to take you away!!!!.....
Just to look at that still, I would swear we had a depression or weak storm.
Apparently UKMet already did.
D
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