Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I was thinking the same thing.....actually, I love his opinion!! I sure hope the thing doesn't bother anyone too!
ok
its up too 90%
OK. It's 90% on the new 8pm advisory. I was thinking they would call it TD but not quite yet
LOL not quite, but we're prepared just in case. You never know, the models could easily shift west if ridging can be stronger than what is forecast.
Changes in the CoC since the ATCF runs began
is it possible like dora 1964 ???
NOT 80%!
90%!
Me too...maybe later tonight or tomorrow...Jason was WROOOONG!
One of the many negatives if something were to hit an island inhabited by people. No A/C = living hell. Trust me, after a hurricane, it will be hell for sure. Especially if the airport is closed, then we are pretty much screwed... LOL.
It's not likely. If this were to turn and head towards the East Coast, it would head in a fashion similar to Hugo.
We would all like to know.
The term for this is "sockpuppet".
XXL/INV91/XX
MARK
12.48n/49.4w
I know that...look at when I posted that. It was before the 8pm advisory...I was asking Jason to clarify because he was stating something that was already true.
Possiable jasonweatherman2011 models seem to show that
but i think if we give it alittle more time will have a better soultion of the track right now its just "rolling in the deep" in the meantime check this out.
Link
I think people get angry when you tell them a storm isn't coming their way...but that's because they have never been through one and don't realize what they can do...
The further south the more likely to go west. It's interesting for me, considering i want to experience a weak hurricane, but yet, if i stay and it was forecast to be a Cat.1, but rapidly intensifies to a 3 or 4,... then I dread it. That's the bad thing.
LOL! Yes, the models will initialize differently once we actually have a storm. Way to early to tell anything.
... is that the new set of runs? If so... oh boy... I could be screwed. LOL (Bahamas)
While this does constitute Explosive deepening, the pressure would need to be <890 mb's to catch up to Wilmas intensification rate (95+ mb's in just about 24 hours) The pressure will likely drop and this storm will probably end up rivaling Megi's peak intensity from last year.
What's useful about it? Seriously, it pinpoints any area of showers and smacks on a color.
(rubs eyes) What?!
Oh, I'm not saying that he/she was right for saying what they said....I'm just stating why they may have said it...
Hey! I like colorful things! XD
Who knows....I have seen adults act worse then children sometimes though...
Oh, so do I. :P
With such a pinhole eye, it may go through an EWRC pretty soon. But you never know, it could continue intensifying. But Muifa is an extremely intense storm, and that advisory was 3 hours ago, so it could easily be in the 900-910 range now.
WTH>> Is that you Jason? Man, I have put you on ignore so many times and you still show up with that goofy picture. Go back into your cave man
+1, if this is not classified by tomorrow morning, I think that the NHC will never classify a TD ever again.(I strongly believe it is one now)
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