Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Not a trace of Don; What's next?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 19:41 GMT le 30 juillet 2011

+33

Don is dead

Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.

NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.

Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.

The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.

What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress

Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.

Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.

Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance

A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.

If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.

Angela

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751. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 00:05 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

752. JLPR2 00:05 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Pressure rising and winds lowering in the buoy at 14N 46W, 91L is moving away. Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

753. Thrawst 00:07 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting BahaHurican: Not surprised to see the left shift on this run. The possibility is definitely there. But I'm waiting to see what HHers find before I panic [lol]. I do think I'll do an update of my own blog, however, since future emily seems more of a threat than Don ever was... Yeah I made an update on my blog today, probably going to be doing and update every 12 hours starting 10am tomorrow. By the way, is it usually this dry during July? Because when I came back from Europe, I was expecting storms like... daily. Member Since: 18 juillet 2010 Posts: 49 Comments: 1066

754. jascott1967 00:07 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting 1900hurricane: This is a little off topic but I just found this on the Houston Chronicle science blog (in the Tropical Storm chat). Pretty cool! Comment From Lyn Eric, what do you think of the Weather Underground site? I rely on it heavily and have found it to be the best and easiest site to use. Eric Berger: Great site. I have a tremendous amount of respect for what they do. Stay tuned because we're going to be partnering with them to put together a great site for Houston weather. Love the Katy jokes on that blog. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 516

755. Patrap 00:09 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

756. Vincent4989 00:09 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting RMM34667: I think a diplomatic and effective response to inappropriate use of the term "fish storm" is the "-" at the top of the post. I usually just skim over those post but I think I will start simply hitting the "-". I think if a poster sees how others perceive the comment it might stop. Don't get offended by the word "fish storm". Just pretend it's not an offensive word. Member Since: 13 novembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728

757. Gorty 00:09 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Look at the HWRF from the 1800 UTC update lol. Member Since: 8 novembre 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 1058

758. Levi32 00:09 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
18z GFDL still pretty far west compared to the other models. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

760. washingtonian115 00:10 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
The tropics are getting more and more interesting. Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10675

761. weathermanwannabe 00:11 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting fmhurricane2009: +1, if this is not classified by tomorrow morning, I think that the NHC will never classify a TD ever again.(I strongly believe it is one now) I could not tell you if it is a TD yet but as I have mentioned here recently; I know it when I see it (that expanding "blossom" look that the circulation is starting to take on). You can also see the moderate sheer affecting it in the Northern quadrant on the loops. Doing very well in spite of that however. Link Member Since: 8 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703

762. Levi32 00:11 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
12z UKMET: Just north of the Bahamas in 144 hours with ridging building in from the east. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

763. BahaHurican 00:11 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting Thrawst: Yeah I made an update on my blog today, probably going to be doing and update every 12 hours starting 10am tomorrow. By the way, is it usually this dry during July? Because when I came back from Europe, I was expecting storms like... daily. Actually July is usually the driest of the summer months [May to Sept]. This year, though, it's seemed / been drier than usual because both May and June were well below average rainfall-wise. Normally we get 6-8 weeks of afternoon showers in May and June, so that July is more of a drying out period. This year that pattern wasn't evident. Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17676

764. SouthDadeFish 00:11 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting Levi32: 18z GFDL still pretty far west compared to the other models. But coming into a better agreement. Seems like the NE Antilles and Puerto Rico are right in the Bullseye for this thing. I don't get how the GFDL has it plowing through Hispaniola and not weakening that much... Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2418

765. washingtonian115 00:13 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting Levi32: 12z UKMET: Just north of the Bahamas in 144 hours with ridging building in from the east. That's not a surprise seeing how strong the high out over the Atlantic has been this year.It's also been pretty far west as well. Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10675

766. RMM34667 00:13 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting Vincent4989: Don't get offended by the word "fish storm". Just pretend it's not an offensive word. Yeah if I could. But I have family in the islands. So it is offensive when there is about 100% chance the the storm in question will effect someone. Possibly even my family in the U.S.V.I. Member Since: 7 septembre 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 910

767. SouthDadeFish 00:13 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting Levi32: 12z UKMET: Just north of the Bahamas in 144 hours with ridging building in from the east. Looks like a pretty zonal flow compared to the other models. Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2418

768. TropicalAnalystwx13 00:13 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: T.C.F.W. XXL/INV91/XX MARK 12.48n/49.4w Can you WUmail me how to make the text color change? Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25347

769. jonelu 00:14 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting weathermanwannabe: It is looking better and better organization wise with each frame. If we start to see some banding features by this evening, NHC might call the TD tonight at the 2:00 and HH hunters will probably be flying into a tropical storm tomorrow IMHO. already annouced they are going in tomorrow afternoon. Member Since: 31 octobre 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882

770. Patrap 00:14 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Maybe they should use "Phish" Like I do instead? Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

771. ackee 00:14 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
I dont know what the NHC is thinking but this is a TD I have seen the NHC upgrade system that has look worst than 91L looks right now pre Emily is a great threat to land Member Since: 15 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1194

772. PORFIRIONOUEL 00:15 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Hi, everyone in the blog..Just a quick note: People refers to Haiti as the whole island of Hispaniola when posting here. The Hispaniola island is divided in two nations: The Dominican republic & Haiti. If a tropical cyclone should strike the island of Hispaniola, please make the distinction of where in the island it will or could strike. thanks... Member Since: 6 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

773. SuperYooper 00:15 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting SouthDadeFish: But coming into a better agreement. Seems like the NE Antilles and Puerto Rico are right in the Bullseye for this thing. I don't get how the GFDL has it plowing through Hispaniola and not weakening that much... The model hasn't been updated since 1492. Just wait for it to be named. The models will come into a better agreement then. It won't take that long since it looks pretty good now. Hey Keep, that looks like recurve to me. Coming from a non-professional of course. Member Since: 18 août 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 1591

774. AndyWeatherFSU 00:15 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Hello All - Long time lurker, first time poster. Looking at the 18Z run of the GFDL, I noticed something a tad fishy. It drops the pressure by 5 mb and raises the winds by 22 knots in 6 hours, while the storm is over Hispaniola. Really not sure what would cause that, unless the model is thinking that most of the vortex is over water. It doesn't seem that way from looking at the fine grid, though. Look at hours 96 and 102. Link: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=20 11073018-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=A nimation Member Since: 27 juillet 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

775. Patrap 00:15 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
HH Plan of the Day 000 NOUS42 KNHC 301630 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1230 PM EDT SAT 30 JULY 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 31/1100Z JULY TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-060 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL ATLANTIC) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 31/1800Z B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST C. 31/1530Z D. 14.5N 56.0W E. 31/1730Z TO 31/2330Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49 A. 01/0000Z B. NOAA9 02EEA SURV C. 31/1730Z D. NA E. NA F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71 A. 01/0600Z,1200Z B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE C. 01/0400Z D. 15.2N 58.1W E. 01/0530Z TO 01/1200Z F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z. 3. REMARKS: A. IF SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP, FLIGHT THREE WILL BECOME A 01/1200Z INVEST MISSION. B. 30/0600Z REQUIREMENT FOR TROPICAL STORM DON CANCELED BY NHC AT 29/0100Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. SEF Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

776. Thrawst 00:16 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting BahaHurican: Actually July is usually the driest of the summer months [May to Sept]. This year, though, it's seemed / been drier than usual because both May and June were well below average rainfall-wise. Normally we get 6-8 weeks of afternoon showers in May and June, so that July is more of a drying out period. This year that pattern wasn't evident. Yeah we are definitely in a drought. Hopefully with this potential trough split and Emily knocking on our doorstep will bring some rain, but hopefully no damage :/ . Lol... Just looked at the new model runs, already shifting a little west again. Could not be good. I got my eyes locked onto this thing 24/7 now. Member Since: 18 juillet 2010 Posts: 49 Comments: 1066

777. Neapolitan 00:16 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting Patrap: Maybe they should use "Phish" Like I do instead? I prefer the ultra-alternate spelling "photi", myself. Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11169

778. Vincent4989 00:16 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting Patrap: HH Plan of the Day 000 NOUS42 KNHC 301630 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1230 PM EDT SAT 30 JULY 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 31/1100Z JULY TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-060 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL ATLANTIC) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 31/1800Z B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST C. 31/1530Z D. 14.5N 56.0W E. 31/1730Z TO 31/2330Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49 A. 01/0000Z B. NOAA9 02EEA SURV C. 31/1730Z D. NA E. NA F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71 A. 01/0600Z,1200Z B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE C. 01/0400Z D. 15.2N 58.1W E. 01/0530Z TO 01/1200Z F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z. 3. REMARKS: A. IF SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP, FLIGHT THREE WILL BECOME A 01/1200Z INVEST MISSION. B. 30/0600Z REQUIREMENT FOR TROPICAL STORM DON CANCELED BY NHC AT 29/0100Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. SEF Don is dust now. Member Since: 13 novembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728

779. Patrap 00:17 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
To each their own,Fish,Phish,or photi I always say Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

780. Vincent4989 00:18 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
I can't seem to get the full loop of 91L...temporary satellite failure? Member Since: 13 novembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728

781. stormwatcherCI 00:19 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
30/2345 UTC 12.6N 48.8W T1.0/1.0 91L 30/1745 UTC 12.8N 47.4W T1.0/1.0 91L No changes but moving west. Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

782. pottery 00:19 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Greetings all. Is the season still a bust?? Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712

783. Patrap 00:20 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
91L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

784. WeatherNerdPR 00:20 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
2011 so far: Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

785. TropicalAnalystwx13 00:21 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting pottery: Greetings all. Is the season still a bust?? Definitely. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25347

786. Patrap 00:21 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

787. TropicalAnalystwx13 00:21 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: 2011 so far: How are things going down there in PR, do people know about 91L and are they preparing? Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25347

788. mcluvincane 00:22 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting hurricanejunky: No that's my JFV/Jason weather center picture. Comical, isn't it? Look at my member since date...2006...not Jason... LMAO Member Since: 2 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

789. blsealevel 00:22 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting AndyWeatherFSU: Hello All - Long time lurker, first time poster. Looking at the 18Z run of the GFDL, I noticed something a tad fishy. It drops the pressure by 5 mb and raises the winds by 22 knots in 6 hours, while the storm is over Hispaniola. Really not sure what would cause that, unless the model is thinking that most of the vortex is over water. It doesn't seem that way from looking at the fine grid, though. Look at hours 96 and 102. Link: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=20 11073018-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&am p;hour=A nimation Nice observation AndyWeatherFSU that does seem unusal has to be seeing it over water in that area. Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

790. Gorty 00:23 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting pottery: Greetings all. Is the season still a bust?? Lol? Member Since: 8 novembre 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 1058

791. gwadaman 00:23 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting java162: yep we are very much ready.... we were told to expect a tropical depression to tropical storm into the day on monday. Whats your location Member Since: 8 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 147

792. Tazmanian 00:24 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
96E wins 30/2345 UTC 10.4N 98.5W T2.0/2.0 96E -- East Pacific wish means we could see TD 5 E at any time Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

793. Thrawst 00:25 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: 2011 so far: LOL, Texas ain't that green. Member Since: 18 juillet 2010 Posts: 49 Comments: 1066

794. SavannahStorm 00:25 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting SuperYooper: The model hasn't been updated since 1492.<BR> Just wait for it to be named. The models will come into a better agreement then. It won't take that long since it looks pretty good now. Hey Keep, that looks like recurve to me. Coming from a non-professional of course. 1492? I guess Columbus used it to avoid storms when he was crossing the Atlantic... :P Member Since: 22 septembre 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2135

795. weathermanwannabe 00:25 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
As noted by Dr. M., there is SAL to the North and East of the system but there appears to be clear sailing ahead with a very moist field insulating it at the moment. Link Member Since: 8 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703

796. WeatherNerdPR 00:25 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: How are things going down there in PR, do people know about 91L and are they preparing? I really don't know. But the news constantly says to watch the situation, so I know the island must be aware. Also, it rains every frigging day. Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

797. JupiterFL 00:26 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting RMM34667: Yeah if I could. But I have family in the islands. So it is offensive when there is about 100% chance the the storm in question will effect someone. Possibly even my family in the U.S.V.I. You should be totally offended. Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146

798. Patrap 00:27 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

799. HurricaneSwirl 00:28 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: 96E wins 30/2345 UTC 10.4N 98.5W T2.0/2.0 96E -- East Pacific wish means we could see TD 5 E at any time Meanwhile, here's wimpy ol' 91L: 30/2345 UTC 12.6N 48.8W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic I don't really understand why satellite estimates on 91L have always been so low. Before anyone yells at me for calling 91L wimpy, I was just joking :x Member Since: 7 juillet 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

800. weathermanwannabe 00:29 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: 96E wins 30/2345 UTC 10.4N 98.5W T2.0/2.0 96E -- East Pacific wish means we could see TD 5 E at any time Another interesting point; I don't remember this active of a season in both basins at the same time. Regardless of the timing of waves in the Atlantic, the ITCZ has been extremely active over the past two months. Member Since: 8 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703

801. prweatherwatcher 00:29 GMT le 31 juillet 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: How are things going down there in PR, do people know about 91L and are they preparing? Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: How are things going down there in PR, do people know about 91L and are they preparing? In watch mode! Most of the people left the preparations for the last moment. Member Since: 29 juillet 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 78

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