Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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In watch mode! Most of the people left the preparations for the last moment.
not sure whats see how 91L looks in the AM
but the E PAC had 4 hurricane with the 5th on the way it seems why we have had 4 name storms with no hurricanes
hello there have not seen you in some time
I submit three pieces of evidence.
August 3 – Christopher Columbus "sails the ocean blue" on his first journey across the Atlantic Ocean to Asia, but he ends up in the Americas
October 12 – Christopher Columbus' expedition makes landfall in the Caribbean and lands on Guanahani, but believes he has reached the East Indies.
Borrowed the chart from Dewey.
It took 33 days for CC to make it from Spain to the Americas, henceforth, he would have needed model support to make it around the storms since the chart was definately in existance at that time.
The defense rests. :P x 2
Unfortunately, for the rest of us, the Doc may have to institute a "pay-for-play" policy.
Only those who have paid their money should be allowed to post.
As long as this forum is open to anyone who can continue to make multiple false e-mail addresses and multiple handles, the abuse will continue.
The good thing about WU is it is "live" - posts show up immediately. Makes it great for the alerts to get through.
But that light moderation also allows the trolls free entry, depending on the "community" to police the blog.
Sorry - /rant...
We haven't decided on the season being a bust or not as yet, but the term "fish storms" is out. We've moved on to "mal vent pour la poisson" so as to not upset anyone. It sounds classier as well.
.
.
One and if they initiate advisories, you'd probably be put under a TS watch, but probably not a warning.
Only light rain so far over in Camana Bay, but the lightning has just started up too.
Awful lot of dry air....I wonder how well she will handle it...
Ryang...
is that really you ???
91L
some in too watch
oh wants too kiss my feet
Most likely it will avoid Florida, but keep an eye on it just in case.
True but 4 Atlantic storms (soon to be 5)nonetheless during the heart of the E-Pac season (and I don't have the article handy from this computer) but Klotzbach and company have noted in recent papers about the observed "inverse" relationship between the two basins (until now I suppose). I am not an expert on the MJO (nor have I looked at those charts recently) but so much activity in both Atlantic and E-Pac this year seems to go against the grain. Just a very interesting anomaly to me but I could not tell you the reasons why.
Perhaps Levi could give us his opinion on this issue/question............... :)
A blast from the past, for sure!
But Dewey stole it from DJ.
A good choice of term. Very classy, as you say.
A possible 5th named system before August 1st?
I can see why we are still undecided....
heheheh
Hey Taz... long time indeed. We had some good times a while back.
AL, 91, 2011073100, , BEST, 0, 128N, 498W, 30, 1008, LO
Yeah, the synoptic pattern is still up in the air, but the models have been coming in stronger with that trough today, which may increase the likelihood of recurvature. Still too early in the game, though. One thing I am relatively certain of is that we will not see the abundance of recurvatures this year that we saw last year.
+1
Not the kind of question Ryang would ask though... ?
everything the same except it moved a little west and north right?
That's not new, that's several hours old.
To be fair, it's been around four years. It is not unreasonable to assume he has changed since then, right? Just a wee bit?
no this update at 12:37AM if you go look and larn how too read it lol not being rude
invest_al912011.invest 3 KB 7/31/2010 12:37:00 AM
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107310037
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011072900, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011072800, , BEST, 0, 77N, 339W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072806, , BEST, 0, 79N, 352W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072812, , BEST, 0, 81N, 365W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072818, , BEST, 0, 84N, 378W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 90, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011072900, , BEST, 0, 87N, 391W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 91, 2011072906, , BEST, 0, 91N, 403W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 91, 2011072912, , BEST, 0, 90N, 420W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 91, 2011072918, , BEST, 0, 94N, 436W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 91, 2011073000, , BEST, 0, 101N, 446W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 225, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 91, 2011073006, , BEST, 0, 112N, 455W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 200, 90, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 91, 2011073012, , BEST, 0, 121N, 465W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 90, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 91, 2011073018, , BEST, 0, 127N, 482W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 90, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 91, 2011073100, , BEST, 0, 128N, 498W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
the one in the bold is the new info
Check @ weatherbell.com
Hes da chief Ding Dong there now
Perfect view from the balcony - off to the south east
It says 2010...But it is the 2011 invest. Hmmm...ATCF mess-up.
Yeah, that's why I said it was still up in the air. While the models have come in with a stronger trough today, that doesn't mean they will in subsequent runs.
$17 a month to read his rants? His twitter storms are free.
It's pouring in Grand Cayman now. Nothing is expected to develop from the wave in the western Caribbean but at least we are getting rain.
Just checking in briefly but almost all weather stations active on the Island as I posted earlier suggest some sort of circulation close to us!
Viewing: 801 - 851
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