Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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But the Actual GFS takes it over puerto Rico in the 18Z run...
Something is fishy! or not...personally fish would be nice..
teddy did you read what levi posted? thats whats happening to 91L PLUS its DMIN time
oh no its losing convection at a time that all systems do, lets drop the chances of development down
No patience whatsoever on here
No, the anticyclone is protecting it. The real reason is it is DMIN.
I'd add that what amongst our different personalities.........there's the one thing that brings us together here on this site. And that's an interest in observing and trying to better understand something that we all know can't be controlled...the weather....with tropical cyclones you have that extreme weather combined with it's unique quality(amongst weather events) of a slow motion train wreck.
Just because he says something, doesn't necessarily mean that it is true. Something totally different may be going on with 91L, we do not know.
Thats is 100% true the overall structure remain good but tstorms are not there i think it wont develop until pass the 55W.
Nope.
But.....we had Don!!!!! It blasted Brownsville,TX with gusts to near 10 mph.
We need a Cape Verde storm to become a Cat. 5 then go to a Cat. 1 and stay that way until it hits Texas.
haha, that made me laugh.
+1
It has lost it's tap to the south..yesterday it was sucking it up from the Equator and now it has drier air to it's south...
Have to see if the circulation can suck enough moisture out of the ocean...
Never thought I would see dry air from the ITCZ being a problem for a storm..
TX High Used Drought!
It was super effective!
Don helped Texas!
It was Ineffective!
Don Fainted!
I wish the intolerance exhibited by a small minority who seem to be determined to control the blog would stop. Especially their tendency to almost bully others as to who they should or should not ignore. They know who they are. Please listen to Baha and have tolerance. This blog is very important at this time of the year.
LOL.
Good to see u in the blog....
Agreed. But there has been some research / hypothesizing to the effect that there is a correlation between EPac / ATL formation [due to the fact that both have AEWs as a major point of storm formation].
Hey, hank... I'm hoping I miss this one too... will be interesting tomorrow...
dry air
shear
DMIN
land
cold SSTs
equator
I'm sure that their are more.
Wave in some trouble ...
And the one in bold is the one that 91L is experiencing right now.
converence nil or next to it
system is fading
He did not come in silently around here in Corpus. And rain Did fall here especially when Don was making landfall. Just not heavy.
It seems like everything Don did during the storm's life was weird. The mainly southern confined convection, computer models failure to develop him at first, and then the conditions here upon landfall. It really looked like a typical winter evening over-running situation (where shallow cold front moves through and moisture over rides cold air at surface causing cloudy sometimes drury drizzly weather), save the warm summer air.
Over all, I won't be surprised if more significant weird weather, anywhere happens in the coming months, catasthrophic or not.
Your crazy...There is no PLANFALF model, no McTavish factors, no Bongevine feed, none of that.
There is no "TD"
There is only Invest 91L.
AL912011 - INVEST
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
And so do others in the US. This site gives us the "between-the-lines" information while the NHC formulates their TWO's.
But having to wade through a couple hundred WOW LOOK AT THIS!!! posts or "POOF" posts while trying to make intelligent life saving decisions can get on one's nerves.
MARK
13.48n/49.44w
Bolded is what 91L is being affected
LOL..if he had said the Psychic twins, I might have believed him just a little bit..god help us if he is right though, we will never be able to live that model down..
There is no shear affecting 91L at this time. While there may be a meager amount of dry air affecting the system, DMIN is the main reason for its look at this time.
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