Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I'm with you on that, lets worry about development first then worry about track.
garbage in garbage out
it will be 24 hrs or more before models get a grip on things
and as always remember
models are meant to be used for guidance only
and donot dipict final outcome too any one single event things can and will change
+100000000 if I could.
Latest HPC Extended Discussion
HPC SURFACE/FRONTS AND 500 MB MEDIUM RANGE PROGS FOR DAYS 3-7
REMAIN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS. AFTER REMARKABLY CLOSE AGREEMENT INTO DAY
3/TUE...GUIDANCE DOES DIVERGE FOR A PORTION OF THE NATION BY DAY
4/WED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SUPPRESSING THE MAIN SYSTEM TRACK MORE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL US COMPARED TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
THAT KEEP IT CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION WAS A BREAK FROM CONTINUITY AND SEEMS CONTRARY TO
CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE. THE NEWER 12Z ECMWF HAS ONLY TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE...THE 00/06/12Z GFS RUNS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT NOISY AT SMALLER SCALES AND THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL REMAINS
IMPROBABLY COMPLEX. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS IN CLOSE
SYNC WITH THE GEFS MEAN. PREFER A BLEND OF THESE MEANS THAT SEEM
TO BETTER HIGHLIGHT ONLY THE MORE PREDICTABLE FORECAST
COMPONENTS...BUT DID APPLY MORE WEIGHTING TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AS PER HPC CONTINUITY AND DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION THAT
MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN A PATTERN WHERE EFFECTIVE FRONTS
ARE MUDDLED BY CONVECTION AND SHORTWAVE TIMING/PLACEMENT
I mean we do have plenty of time to watch it, it still has a few days before it even approaches the lessler antillies.
Wish that one could just muster up enough "umph" to move some rain toward drought areas of La and TX
agreed...plus the models are spread out. Until it had a defined center I think its hard to put too much into the models outside of 3 days. Models were calling for Don to enter into the Bahamas and he stayed South of the big Islands and hit southern TX. I think we are still in a wait and see situation until we have a well defined COC.
Thank you to both & Dr. Masters - for keeping us informed about Don & explaining reasons for his demise. It meant a lot to those of us in Texas.
It'll be interesting to see how large and powerful this system becomes, because I believe that can influence it's track as well.
Wow that looks familiar...remember when Wilma went through trochoidal oscillations like that? It could imply an EWRC in the near future as well.
LOLOL, that's a good one.....:o
Let's see what tomorrow brings, LOL.
So which center would the NHC designate as 05L, the one on the left or the one on the right? Not specifically addressed at you, you just posted the loop showing it.
Looks like alittle more then 50% looking at the models that jasonweatherman2011 just put out.
I'm having trochoidal oscillations reading some of these posts :)
Not all of them. Some of them has it in the general direction of NYC and points north.
So is Greenland, the Faeroe islands and Ireland. Is this another tedious 'fish storm' post?
You expect me to believe Jason lives in Bermuda, I doubt it.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOME 900 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED. NHC NOW GIVES THIS
AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THIS SYSTEM
(SHOULD IT INDEED DEVELOP ITS NAME WOULD BE EMILY) TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO BY MID
WEEK. AS ALWAYS...THERE`S A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IN TERMS OF ITS EVENTUAL TRACK. IF
IT BECOMES A HURRICANE IT WILL FEEL THE TROUGH MORE AND GET PULLED
NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD
MEAN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. ALSO...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN BY LATE
NEXT WEEK IS IN QUESTION WITH THE 30.00Z RUN (12Z NOT IN YET) OF
THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK. SO THE BOTTOM LINE FOR OUR LOCAL WEATHER IS
THAT IT`S JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WILL MAINTAIN A CLIMO FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
Not every model.
Issued at 03:58 JST 31 Jul 2011
Occurred at (JST) Latitude
(degree) Longitude
(degree) Depth Magnitude Region Name
03:54 JST 31 Jul 2011 36.9N 141.3E 40 km 6.4 Fukushima-ken
Looks like 2 centers? Anyone else see that?
Headed back to Africa?
Viewing: 101 - 151
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