Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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After seeing how the GFS performed with the last trough... I dunno. I'm really not wishing this storm to the USA, but I just don't see a strong trough. Maybe a recurvature at the Bahamas, but I don't see it recurving as far east as some models say. We will have much better data Monday when we have Hurricane Hunter stuff in them.
To trof or not to trough - I thought a 2nd trof/trough/traf curved 91 fully out to sea, no?
BTW - I highly recommend Target's box wines. On my 2nd glass of red sangria. Mmmmm
Light-weight. lol
I go for the vodka over anything else. lol
The three Lines LOL!
The Dot in the "i" is the COC
Puerto Rico appears buried beneath the spaghetti models, lol..
Emily is firing up convection.
Do you want me to go back into this blog and re-quote what trash he has been saying about 91L/TD Emily. Maybe you should read back and find out why I ignored him.
Are my eyes deceiving me, based upon simple memory? Isn't a little early to see this much umph!
Lol
Mega LOL
That I can agree to. I was simply clarifying a statement another poster said that they dont affect TS and hurricanes. They do. But often times the affect is negligible. However, I would prefer a system landfall during the day, as night has historically been worse. Could be coincidental, could be human observation is different at night, but I tend to think it would be easier for a hurricane to sustain itself as it approaches landfall during a dmax.
They are powerful for this time of year, just a sign of what to expect the rest of the year.
Seems like your generic avatar is slightly modified. Note the red background instead of blue.
Well this graph shows that the MJO is in the western hemisphereAfrica Quadrant.
Don was: wow look at that, future Emily holy wow, the next is: oh crap, its the end of the world. Just a observation.
We'll see.. I'm probably the only one here that believes the GFS is overdoing the trough.
NAO is tanking.
"Out to sea"!!! Don't mention this to jasonweatherman, we don't want him to inform us another 15 posts saying "out to sea".. LOL but seriously I think he made his point clear across the blog xD
Computer models should be more accurate by later in the afternoon, though.
I'm soused - plz don't poofs me. I went to the Nationals-Mets game and am wif wine now and texting femals. I'm sure this is bad idea, but whatever.
Nope, thats what I'm thnking too. Thats just a little overdone, I might believe it when it shows some more consistency.
Latest run from NOAA
Exactly. Too much of a coincidence.
No, just some put to much emotion into their "look at what I said". Until forecasting proves otherwise it will move farther west. Way to many variables this far out. To forecast more than 6 days out is like drawing cards at random at a poker game.
Good possibility it does get trapped looking through Fl discussions today. Also the consensus model TVCN is currently showing a stall. Unless the Bermuda high is building in from the east it would eventually get picked up. Time will tell however, the chances of a re-curve are currently greater than not, IMO.
I'm inclined to say that they have at least consolidated when compared to the 0600Z runs from 7.30.11 with the GFTI and NOGAPS pointing out in to the Caribbean and most everything else running up through Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Unless that ridge moves back west a little bit I suspect that it will recurve, to what extent, not sure yet.
are you with wine? or with your wife?
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