Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Same here. If I lose my roof, I'm homeless. No way I can come up with a $5000 hurricane deductible on Social Security.
I admire your thought processes, sir. You are quite reasonable and deliberate, it seems. Keep it up - it will serve you well in any field/career.
As the Doc said, the dry air has been preventing more development, but even with that it is a strong system with good chances for further improvement..
I was saying earlier that NHC would leave it at 70%.
It sure fooled me LOL, and this aint the first time that has happened!
(sorry for shouting - do not want Taz mad!)
'vary funny
There's always a post like this in every storm..
I don't see anyone wishing for doom and gloom, just offering opinions. Well if you don't include the blogger who's current handle is 'HurricaneEmily'
My guess is Jason is a computer program that got a virus.
lol
Perhaps I am a bit snippy today.
I was in the Dominican Republic when cat 3 Georges hit in 1998, and I spent the entire night huddling in a corner, praying, and scared *hitless. If the actual storm weren't bad enough, I got to witness first hand what negative effects storms have on families and their assets.
Yes, having some heavy wind and rain is ALWAYS exciting for us weather freaks, but having a legitimate hurricane hit you is hell, I promise.
just depends on how much agreement the models have lol!!!
Ya I noticed this earlier and posted how similar Muifas movement was in relation to Wilma. Looks like it's climbing a set of stairs. Did you see the microwave image I posted earlier? I've never seen anything like it. One of the fastest and meanest RI's I've ever seen a system go through.
Okay that was too funny!!
Bro you are getting as bad as some trollers here. You flip flop more than a fish.
I like to poke a little fun! But ya never know, I might just be more accurate than I intended :)
It's one heck of an eyewall.
all in fun..I actually enjoy your posts man..keep on doing your thang!!
Link
On a side note, does anyone know why my post count went way down? I had around 50 yesterday, but I seem to have lost a lot of them today. Just wondering, no biggie.
That's kind of a low blow to the NHC. I bet if it was classified people would be complaining on here it's to broad to be named.
Ok
I wonder if NHC will label it anything else or just keep it an invest.
Wilma was a freakin cyclone with the wind force of an F4 tornado, that alone gives me shivers.
I've seen no renumber yet.
GFS thinks it should develop.
How do you get pics on here?
Yep, I would expect 8:00 for upgrade if it actually happens.
A: Recurve
b: hit the US
c: TOO FAR OUT TO TELL ITS ALL ABOUT THE TIMING!!
i'll go with C :) what about you guys?
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