Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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91L
Hey aquak, how's the weather there?
What is LSM and LISGM? You got a link?
Still have some doughnuts left?
Just take your pick huh lol.
I hope this link works. I don't know if he is still on but this brings it just where he said and Angela calls this model reliable.
yup be come we dont have too have a passport to go there lol
I remember reading that they were considering statehood, you hear anything about that?
yup
EP, 05, 2011073112, , BEST, 0, 109N, 1002W, 35, 1004, TS
rates the E PAC wins
I'm 100% sure that's the tracks of Emily '05 and Charley '04.
Last I heard it failed and has not resurfaced...
It could still recurve after 126 hours, but the HWRF has shifted west considerably since yesterday.
it does not show it hitting FL.
Thanks. Looking at the current state of the US, they may want to reconsider anyway, lol.
Yo - it's a Canes thing!!!
that flooding was terrible once upon a time..I'm glad they got it fixed..glad to meet another local on WU..
I think that the squall lines are not part of the system, and one can see why, when you look at a floater over 91L. It doesn't really seem to be part of 91L's circulation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.h tml
Esp the State with Skeletor at the Helm...
LoL
ROFLMAO... I have heard Lex Luther (he even looks like him), but not Skeletor...
He has brought a Cat 5, s**t storm to this state.
Funny how Eugene won. Yesterday at 2AM pre-Eugene was only at 10% while 91L was at 70%. Now We have a TS out of the 10% but nothing out of the 70% yet. XD
i am tired of hearin ppl talk bout a fish storn!!!! this is heading straight to the lesser antillies(which is land by the way) so there is absolutly no wat this cud be a fish storm... enough with that crap already.
Nuff Said...Plan is to push Skeletor off in a dingy to research the next storm that approaches.
Poor Florida is right! The GFDL also hits S Florida.
Rains in the Amazon rainforest typically precede the rains of the Midwest, which fall four months later. In 2010, a major once-in-a-century drought hit the Amazon, following a previous once-in-a-centry episode in 2005. The Amazon drought may have contributed to the Texas drought.
Link
Sure enough, there was a Texas drought in the winter of 2005-2006. Another concern is that Amazon droughts typically lower the pressures in the Caribbean, making conditions more conducive to bigger storms. Gulf coast drought additionally warms SSTs there, fuelling stronger storms.
Link
Link
That's the 00Z run, the 06Z doesn't so much with 91L, though it does take it fairly westward.
yup
It's simmering, kind of like a good stew.
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