Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Nice to see you around... been a while. Take care over there.
I can understand thinking that due to past performance, I just think it's no excuse for presenting it to others as if it's fact. Doesn't help our process of teaching others. That's all I was saying. Say it as a guess or opinion. It's not necessarily fact and nobody should present it as if it is.
The SHIPS model is giving 91L a good chance of undergoing RI in the next 1-3 days.
That could be possible, I find the wave in front of it might actually be stealing moisture from 91L. If that is the case, it might stay weak and move farther W then initially expected.
Quoting Chicklit:
Jason posts a lot of really good graphics.
imo he is just excitable and enthusiastic. so what.
anyway, everyone has right to his or her opinion.
P451 thanks for those great graphics, too; shows 91L is about to be named emily.
Thanks Chicklit. I'm pretty firm in thinking recon will give us Emily - maybe not the first pass but before they leave to go home I think that's what happens. Kind of splitting hairs though - it's a given 91L is developing and will likely be a TS before the day is out.
I agree about Jason's imagery posts.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 7200
if you go to my blog page you will see first hand all the great grapics jason uses they are from my blog page
Link
The separation of the wave axis from the original circulation is hampering development and should provide a more westerly track in the short term.
well well well look oh we have here
What's the %?
Great to see you 456. Miss your blogs!
Hope you are still doing weather and your family is fine.
if you go to my blog page you will see first hand all the great grapics jason uses they are from my blog page -- KeeperoftheGate
rofl. thanks Keep!
Can you believe an actual Cape Verde wave developing on Jul. 31? And another wave after that...watching these developments makes cleaning up the office much more interesting.
Link
Check the Lat/Lon box, speed up the animation, and rock it.
This could cause cultural disruptions as well, hopefully it is nothing more then a TS over the islands.
so,,taking this to FL into the GOM ,but NC have to have a eye on it ?? ummmmm
o good to see ya brother
Was going to cut the lawn, ah well, guess I get to rest for once. Lol.
Here, Gorty
Maybe they both have Circulations.
lol
Direction of Travel: ESE (118°)
Location: 130 miles (210 km) to the ESE (117°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Recon on the way!
Recon:
Link
rofl
Hey 456. Hope you that everything is well. Nice to see you on the blog.
I've seen it on the NHC discussions though.
Quoting NHC discussion #4 for Hurricane Jimena in 2009...
"THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS FORECASTING A 95 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 35 KT
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HIGHEST VALUE I HAVE EVER
SEEN."
He is not an idiot, and its rude that you would say such. I don't think you would like it if people started to call you an idiot, would you? Considering I'm only 14, its probably safe to assume your older to me. However, with the way you've acted today, it seems your the young one here.
Thanks.
XL/XX/INV
MARK
XX/XX
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