Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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+1 I very much agree with that. Some people will never be happy with what the NHC decides unless it coincides with there thinking or forecast. When they don't, they go around bashing them for no good reason.
I ain't ready to pawn my generator,for a 6 pack, until November.
These are great. What's the link?
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
He's not a "medium". He's a tropical "seer".
:-)
never thought i'd see another canestime poster on here.
26canefan is my handle there.
Buol. "The sheer volume of water in such a short period of time that
came down. We have a lot of steep hills in Dubuque and everyone has been
affected. Even those on the top of hills have water in their
basements."Damage to the county was estimated into the millions
of dollars, said Thomas Berger, Dubuque emergency management agency
director.
Such heavy rains are extremely unusual, said Harry Hillaker, state of Iowa climatologist.
"To see 10 inches of rain in one spot - a single gauge area - happens about once every 800 years," Hillaker said. "That is very extreme in one spot."
The deluge comes just more than a year after more than 10 inches of rain fell in Oelwein over a 12-hour period on July 22 and 23, 2010. The heavy rains in the Maquoketa River basin contributed to the Lake Delhi dam failure July 24.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20110729 /NEWS/107290313/-1/gallery_array/Dubuque-mayor-Eve n-those-hilltops-water-basements
Also watch the Western Caribbean, could pull a surprise!
pre-Emily won't, take that to the bank
Emily could but way too soon to tell
I'm only being responsible, reasonable, and objective in considering all options on the table and not putting all my faith into computer models that have switched ideas in the past few days back and forth. For you to declare that its final shows an obvious lack of maturity and rationale as well as arrogance.
It is too far out, but my gut feeling is going with A.
LOL! That is funny! not ready to pawn my generator off yet either but seems like someone in here yesterday was saying they think 91L could be a "FISH". How they were thinking that I don't know.
I agree, cchs, read my previous comment, he has nothing better to do than to stir up trouble on this blog, put him on ignore.
Wow, you are so smart and composed. I wish that more bloggers were more like you.
Link
91L could pose a threat to the Islands and all we see is talk about the US. It happens all the time and makes me sick every single time.
Which is another reason to discount the models on path at this point. Once we see a strong LLC then the models will get a better grip on where it's going.... I discount model steering forecasts until this system gets more organized.
Don't get baited by the trolls. I think your view is completely reasonable. I am especially skeptical of all these models pushing Emily (can I call her that yet?) through the Hebert box and then back out to sea... not wishcasting, just skeptical.
someone to help form a response to people who say a systems is a FISH. I understand that in their
mind, that people who are not from the CONUS, are not really human, therefore they don't really
count and the system can be called a FISH.
I really have a problem with that line of thinking, I personally think anyone who calls a system a FISH because it only endangers "non" US citizens, or Sailors... is a moron and shouldn't actually be allowed to breed, but that's only a personal opinion...
What I need is a Diplomatic way to tell someone they are an absolute Moron... suggestions would be appreciated.
If they're that ignorant, you're not going to say anything that they're going to be able to comprehend anyway. Just saying...
I think it already has its act together, it doesn't look disorganized to me.
Good job..
They look toasty to me in the gulf, and only 70's up by north Africa.
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