Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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You watch that trash? Lol
I disagree. I think "Emily's Baby" will move away westward.
not at all, hows he saying that??
There is an important disclaimer on that web site.
"As these data are experimental, there may be times where the updates are not timely or not available. Experimental products should be not be solely relied upon to make important decisions regarding weather forecasts."
I am guessing the map posted is based on earlier model runs which were further east.
It's not Gospel my friend, it's just a good chance.
except i dont see another trough on the left side of the image...
I'd like to hope that his statements are well founded, making up things and saying they're coming from the NHC is a big no-no.
Last transmit was 16:19
Took off at 16:20
Traveled ~265 nm between those times
An hour after last transmit.. the recon might be between the other wave and the main wave
they are not going to classify this, recon is not updating either
He is basically saying the NHC now feels it is more disorganized than they originally thought, they will not upgrade it
when people on here hear something like that, they leave or RIP it; sad fact but true
Then posting info from that call is a bit like speaking out of turn. We have no way of knowing if the info is being reported correctly. It is just hearsay.
I wouldn't worry too much about it. Certain people on this blog seems to get their panties in a bunch over nothing. If you have useful info then please continue to post it...
Yup, a little farther out...
Edit: Wow, blog stretches that image weird, here's a link.
Link
NWS would not like it
Just maybe not as originally thought, satellites can give storms better appearances if it has a good mid-level vortex.
Too close to Florida, and too much trouble for the Bahamas. One little jog to the west, and S. Florida might be in some trouble. By the way, my 3 year old granddaughter is Emily, and do to her being "strong willed", we have enjoyed using the nickname "Hurricane Emily". I laughed when I saw the lists of names, and then went uh-oh...could be an omen! LOL Hope not! Oh, it definitely looks to be a depression or TS to my unofficial eyes. Really, a healthy looking system right now. Much better than poor Don.
I have been here for many years and cannot agree more. My family and I were newly killed by Katrinas storm surge. And we live nearly 25 feet above sea level. Share anything you think is relevant. It is appreciated.
I am hoping this will be
Emily Post...
Well mannered and not disturbing us.
*eye roll*
which means a little further west, which means a little closer to me...
which is all well and good if you site the source in the first place; which he failed to do
he just posted it out of nowhere, maybe give us a little background on how he got that information; then if it verifies we know his info can be trusted.
To just throw it out there the way he did is what caused the issue.
Im not voting just asking you guys
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 16:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 03
Mandatory Data...
Observation Time: Sunday, 16:24Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 15.9N 60.2W
Location: 90 miles (144 km) to the ENE (62°) from Roseau, Dominica.
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,620 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -19°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -24°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,600 geopotential meters
This is last observation!
there out there waiting too get closeer
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