Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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ABNT20 KNHC 311735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 575
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF THIS BROAD
DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER. IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 575
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF THIS BROAD
DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER. IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 575
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF THIS BROAD
DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER. IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 17:29Z
Date: July 31, 2011
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
Link
Link please!
PENCE!
anyway, recons closing in on 91L
No, wait...
Never mind, isn't near the centre yet.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 575
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF THIS BROAD
DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER. IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
from this map it looks like it COULD be a problem for the Carolinas. But we all know things can and will change.
I am inclined to believe you but I would NOT recommend posting info like that in a public domain like this. I wouldn't want you to get demoted/fired/yelled at. I work for Big Oil so I hear a lot of stuff relative to public interest all over the world but the heck if someone figures out I posted it.
I mean you have a pic of yourself up. Be careful!!
LMAO!
: )
The first one , after all they were the quick one !
Soooo tempted to do the same. :D
The longer this thing endures a split personality, the more nervous I become of a Florida strike. They should name this thing Sybil instead of Emily.
Link
Hardest worker in the game hated losing him...
LOL. You think I'm close-minded about Fox?
Lol!!
Mostly because there's no way Stewart actually looked at satellite observations before writing that TWO... "little" change in organization? Seriously?
PAT- LMAO
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 17:39Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05
Mandatory Data...
Observation Time: Sunday, 17:33Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 14.2N 55.4W
Location: 293 miles (472 km) to the ENE (75°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 110° at 16 knots (From the ESE at ~ 18.4 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 14°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1012 mb (extrapolated)
Optional Data...
Estimated Surface Wind: From 80° at 25 knots (From the E at ~ 28.7 mph)
Hey doggie, where ya been? The hawk has returned this week. Guessing it's because I started filling the bird feeder again!
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting IceCoast:
To follow Recon I suggest using this site. Decodes the data for you, and updates quickly. I will be able to post the Obs on the blog for the next hour or so.
Link
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