Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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geeez I even had the NHC update wu-mailed to me...what's next...someone gonna call and read it to me?
IDK, maybe he forgot to hit refresh on the floater...
looks like the west blob is the real 91l tho ast the est runs into it and becomes one what you think ?
According to the red track forecast, 91L makes its northwards turn NOW. We'll see.
Personally, I think it's going west, like its little brother.
It shows it pretty wound up but I wouldn't worry too much until the HH's get their info in and the models are re-calculated. I'm in South Florida too and we'll just keep an eye out Mon/Tues and then we'll have a better idea of what general direction it will take. Would be nice to get some heavy rain though from a weak Emily. A strong Emily is most likely to curve along the outside of the high. Stay cool in Plantation!!
What is your number?
It's my avi from Bodybuilding.com. I'll put a new one up - I don't want to offend anyone. Just proud of what I've built up given the amount of time I sit at a desk all day.
phone's already ringing, and there's an airplane over the house pulling a sign that says, "NHC..."
BRAILLE!
player... :p
Well true, but no one likes gettin' yelled at.
Does the bird bath attract the Bald Eagles ?
..-. -.-..... ..--.--...-
I'll send the carrier pigeons over with it coiled up on their leg.
WU mail me your number.
Smoke signals...
Link
335
URNT15 KNHC 311748
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 16 20110731
173730 1406N 05510W 9770 00306 0119 +227 +153 129013 013 /// /// 03
173800 1405N 05509W 9772 00304 0118 +230 +153 126013 014 /// /// 03
173830 1404N 05507W 9774 00302 0118 +229 +154 121014 014 /// /// 03
173900 1403N 05506W 9769 00303 0117 +223 +154 116012 012 /// /// 03
173930 1402N 05504W 9769 00305 0117 +227 +154 110013 014 /// /// 03
174000 1401N 05503W 9768 00307 0117 +224 +152 124017 017 /// /// 03
174030 1401N 05501W 9772 00302 0116 +229 +152 124017 017 /// /// 03
174100 1401N 05500W 9772 00302 0116 +230 +151 127016 017 /// /// 03
174130 1400N 05458W 9770 00303 0115 +229 +152 120015 015 /// /// 03
174200 1400N 05457W 9771 00302 0115 +228 +154 119013 013 /// /// 03
174230 1400N 05455W 9768 00305 0116 +227 +155 119013 014 /// /// 03
174300 1400N 05453W 9770 00305 0117 +225 +156 113013 014 /// /// 03
174330 1400N 05452W 9768 00306 0118 +225 +157 113015 017 /// /// 03
174400 1359N 05450W 9773 00301 0117 +226 +158 120017 017 /// /// 03
174430 1359N 05448W 9773 00301 0116 +225 +159 121017 018 /// /// 03
174500 1359N 05447W 9772 00301 0116 +227 +160 121016 017 /// /// 03
174530 1359N 05445W 9769 00304 0116 +226 +160 123016 017 /// /// 03
174600 1358N 05444W 9770 00302 0115 +225 +160 128017 018 /// /// 03
174630 1357N 05442W 9771 00301 0115 +225 +161 138017 017 /// /// 03
174700 1356N 05441W 9771 00302 0115 +223 +161 137017 017 /// /// 03
$$
;
LOLZ - Livin' on a Prayer (of a Recurve)
Coordinates: 13.9333N 54.6833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 977.1 mb (~ 28.85 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 302 meters (~ 991 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.5 mb (~ 29.87 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 137 at 17 knots (From the SE at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: 22.3C (~ 72.1F)
Dew Pt: 16.1C (~ 61.0F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data
wow only 990 off the deck, that must be fun
Any chance of the blob in front developing also?
or is it just disorganized thunderstorms soon to either be absorbed by 91L, or get cut up on the islands.
The circulation is too broad right now based on satellite to become a TD IMO. I'll be shocked if recon finds sufficient data to let TD 5 form.
it appears so ans its not even dmin yet... i guess we will have to wait till tomorrow
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 17:39Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05
Mandatory Data...
Observation Time: Sunday, 17:33Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 14.2N 55.4W
Location: 293 miles (472 km) to the ENE (75°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 110° at 16 knots (From the ESE at ~ 18.4 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 14°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1012 mb (extrapolated)
Optional Data...
Estimated Surface Wind: From 80° at 25 knots (From the E at ~ 28.7 mph)
getting close
Looks so. Weakening.
nice
I mentioned yesterday that it didn't have a closed circulation yet and was treated like I didn't know what I was talking about.
out to lunch on track though, would need to get to 15N by 55W to verify
Link
it has strong spin but i think dry air is eating it
Pretty close to other guidance
WUNDERGROUND GLOSSARY
ANALOG STORM: A previous tropical cyclone that a) was at some point in time in roughly the same area as the current storm being watched, and b) went on to make a direct strike at your location.
DOWNCASTER: A person who disagrees with your assessment that a current invest will shortly become a rapidly-intensifying Cat 5 headed directly to your location.
FISH STORM: A storm that will fail to make a direct strike on your location, regardless of which other populated areas it may have already affected or will go on to affect.
INVALID MODEL: A numerical forecast model that fails to place a particular storm at your location and at the strength you'd like that storm to be. (See: VALID MODEL)
NHC: If a particular storm is currently forecast to make a direct strike on your location, it is an organization consisting of highly-educated, phenomenally-experienced, extremely professional tropical meteorologists. Otherwise it's just a group of blind, idiotic liars who clearly know far less about weather than the average high school-aged hurricane enthusiast.
POOF: Something you say to someone who disagrees with you.
RECON: A method of measuring the strength and location of a developing or extant tropical cyclone by making multiple aircraft passes through the center of the storm. If the aircraft finds that a storm is both intensifying and heading directly to your location, this method can be considered highly accurate. If, on the other hand, the aircraft finds that a storm is weakening and/or moving away from your area, it's simply a bunch of morons wasting taxpayer dollars joyriding around the Caribbean.
TROLL: Either a) a person who disagrees with you, or b) a person with whom you disagree, or c) an easily-ignored troublemaker who will nonetheless not be ignored but will instead become the primary focus of the blog for at least 100 consecutive comments.
VALID MODEL: A numerical forecast model that places a particular storm at your location and at the strength you'd like that storm to be. (See: INVALID MODEL)
;-)
GFDL
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