Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Leeward/Winward Islands wouldn't do anything to the storm. They're much too small and not very topographical enough to interfere with any circulation.
yep nuttin but da stupid weather lol. What's bad is when there is actually something going on they wanna show something like Cantore stories and crap
Yup that makes sense. Thank you taz.
Interesting. The models have some work to do.
SST's in Caribbean high?
Ok Dude, enough! Jeez!
I don't post much but have been on this board a long time and you have become quite irritating already this season. For those that read this often, I think they get your opinion on 91L. It would be fine if you backed up your claims with more information but your continous one liners claiming a poof on 91 have become nothing more than trolling. Enough already!
your welcome
It will be very interesting to see where the NHC locates this system. If they go along with the new DVORAK location then that's going to through the models totally off course. WOW
Interesting indeed:
this put him on Ignore and his post will go a way
the same go for the rest of you
We could use a new blog post to explain this East/West split in 91L.
At least to the uneducated weather enthusiast like me.
:)
Me thinks that might be the non-tasked mission..... Haven't seen any new data for the invest mission for quite some time - the data is on and off today....
What would be the most likely mechanism? The wave in front slows down or 91L speeds up?
If the main centre is at 56.8W, then recon is going the wrong way. Maybe that explains the lack of updates, they don't want people to realise they were going the wrong way and had to turn around... Lol
+1000
One has to dominate for the Invest to gain any classification or organization.
In other words,,its a muddy puddle with the future to shake out downstream in time.
Patience,,..its da tropics.
ok and yup
It was with a BB gun and the kids were caught...
Link
1
There could be a few different reasons...but a lot of times I've seen developing storms such as 91L reorganize themselves...it has clearly gone from the "large, broad" circulation we were seeing yesterday to a storm of almost half of the size...it allows the low level circulation to spin up tighter and faster...
nope not for another 2 hours
That's right. And even then, the last messages received from the plane showed SE winds just west of the circulation we were tracking all along which didn't make sense. But those SE winds from the plane relate more to the new center that's forming. Very interesting stuff!
IMHO, more than likely one will dominate and absorb the other.
They'll start dating, eventually get married maybe buy a house then have a couple kids. Next thing you know divorce court. And Emily get's it all. So it's DOOM if they meet.
just kiddin. I'm sure someone on here can answer.
... LOL. That made me laugh.
On another note, its really difficult to follow the computer models without a defined circulation and since the system has continued moving westward throughout the day, which goes against what the models were suggesting would happen with a more WNW track.
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