Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
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Dreading the thought of no A/C for days on end.... and possibly another TC on top of the first one if patterns hold out the way they have in the past...
"An Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert's Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. They are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions.[1]
Examples include unnamed hurricanes in 1926, 1928, 1933, and 1935, as well as the major hurricanes Donna and Betsy, all of which came through a Hebert Box. Collectively these storms killed more than 2,000 people in Florida. Conversely, storms such as the major hurricanes Floyd and Gert in 1999, which both were headed for Florida at one point, missed the Hebert Boxes and turned away from Florida at the last minute.[1]"
One little isolated cell to my NW putting out some wicked winds at the airport:
07/31/2011 0547 PM
Savannah Airport, Chatham County.
Thunderstorm wind gust m70 mph, reported by ASOS.
A 70 mph gust was reported at Savannah International
Airport.
07/31/2011 0538 PM
Savannah Airport, Chatham County.
Thunderstorm wind gust m64 mph, reported by ASOS.
I'm not sure about the data...I am pretty sure they put the data into the 00z runs.
Dropsonde Observation Number: 12
Splash Location: 16.99N 57.56W
Splash Time: 21:28Z
click to enlarge
That still shows it curving upwards a bit earlier than is loooking now.....the longer it takes to pull together, the more likely we have a Caribbean Sea strom to Jamaica et al....
I haven't seen those before. Where did you get dropsonde sounding maps?
We need a new blog if you get a chance Angela.
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But, now that you mention it, the peaches have been great this year from Georgia and especially South Carolina. We've talked on the blog before about a relationship between animals and cyclones. How about fruit and cyclones?
If you're watching from Google earth, click on the dropsonde icon of interest...and wait untill you hear this-keep scrolling down.
If everything around you is without power - you deal with it or , well, leave. I didn't have power for like 4 days after Gustav and it is much more humid in south Looziana than up here.
The NAM is not good with TC...
GFS should the one to watch as Keep has posted. Nogaps should be considered an outerly.
Scroll down to the bottom of the page after clicking on the dropsonde report.
Or, this, LOL:
Well I can't get GE to play nice with the flash plugin in linux, but I see where it would be. Why I never thought to scroll down and see what else is there is beyond me....
Thanks for the enlightenment lol.
Link
I didn't see that it is, but I did say that it has a pretty good handle on what's happening.
Gonzo is still north of 91L isn't it?
(Rolls Eyes) Wishcasting
I have been aware of this for a few seasons but I had the same "why didn't I" moment at one point, lol.
YW for sure.
so we got Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico getting tagged by 91L in the 18Z GFS..
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