Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Can you back this statement with statistics? If it is a majority, it's not a large one.
Yes
Many of us are still around; we just don't hang out here often unless there is something to watch... and I now do more "lurking" than leaving comments.
Normally by this time of each summer I start putting the nonsense handles on my ignore list..
so I can come back and take a look around and make comments and chat with old friends.
Good to see you Tigger!
Gams
77% are from the US. It's right on the blog statistics page.
nothing that I am seeing shows a circulation at 50W
The site was here and has been since 1995 but only the "photographers" had so called blogs.. you see their "anniversary dates" go back to 2001-2004... us "weather bloggers" started in April or summer months of 2005, we were the first year weather bloggers.
Galveston here. I rarely post...just try to learn all that I can, but I have to say that when I see statements like this H-Emily, it takes me back to when Ike was still more than a week away from threatening the US and someone from this area asked the innocent question "is there any chance this could come to Galveston?". He/she got slammed with "wishcaster" comments and slapped them around with what the models said. The rest of the story is history. It's not "final" until it makes landfall. :)
Looking at the weather stations here the majority are showing SSW , WSW, W, WNW winds, I think something might be starting to brew near us , we don't see those readings unless a Nor"wester or tropical system is forming in our area!
can really see the multiple circulations on there, just like Levi was talking about in his vid this morning
Never said I was posting here in 2004, said I'd been reading since 2004. I was glued to this site as Charley came up the west coast of FL, since it was supposed to hit us, and saw it take that violent right turn into Ft Myers where friends were.
Exactly. I sincerely hope that you made it out ok from Hurricane Ike.
You are totally right. It aint over til it's over. Anything could happen, and that's why i'm really focusing on this system here in wilmington.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #48
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN (T1108)
6:00 AM JST July 31 2011
==========================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Laos
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Nock-Ten (994 hPa) located at 19.0N 103.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots
Dvorak Intensity: Overland
Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in east quadrant
70 NM from the center in west quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 19.1N 98.6E - Tropical Depression (Overland Thailand)
Funny & true, but remember anything is possible!
Had that late last week... with IE; thought ok I'll do Chrome, was OK; went back to IE and that was OK too. No clue of what had happened.
There's a statistics page? Bedarned. Didn't realise. In any case, I was thinking more in terms of the active posters rather than the overall membership.
Try signing off and back on....happened to me before :)
Is it on "Show Average"? If so, and even if that is not the case, just go to where the URL is and remove the "&filter=XX" part of it.
I/We over in Europe really appreciate what some and sometimes most of you in the US have to say as we don't have anything like the excitement you have, most of the time over on our side of the Atlantic its very predictable and not much is dramatic, though we do have our moments.
I have learned 90% plus of what I know about weather from reading the comments on this blog, so thanks a lot! Plaza.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time
Highly doubt it. Far too disorganized to warrant anything stronger than Near 0%. Also, it will be moving into Central America soon.
Just a Hello to ya Plaza....:)
For example, in Dominica there was a major dam that burst the other day causing what was described as an "ecological disaster". The early report that I read said that no one died from the disaster. Good news. Here is a link to a story about the dam burst and some pictures.
http://poleshift.ning.com/profiles/blogs/dam-coll apses-in-dominica-many
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