Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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**shake head**
If you insult, you denigrate us as latins.... Please remember, comment in any language but keep it Weather Related...
That is my opinion...
Mano, si insultas, nos denigras como latinos... Comenta manteniendo el tema meteorologico.... demostremos que tenemos clase y que dominamos ambos idiomas...
Esa es mi opinion...
Like Jason posted, getting very active the tropics
Se ve muy activo el Tropico
Either that or a new blog -
She looks to be consolidating in the center and pulling a bit to the NW.
Im Costa Rican, just FYI
Earthquake Details
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude
6.8
Date-Time
Sunday, July 31, 2011 at 23:38:57 UTC
Monday, August 01, 2011 at 09:38:57 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
3.569°S, 144.844°E
Depth
16.8 km (10.4 miles)
Region
NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.
Distances
134 km (83 miles) E of Wewak, New Guinea, PNG
211 km (131 miles) NNW of Madang, New Guinea, PNG
701 km (435 miles) NNW of PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea
2787 km (1731 miles) NNW of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
Appears Gonzo has been tasked for a last minute drop closer to 91L... if I'm not mistaking.
18z NOGAPS
Link
any tsunami warning sent?
How about this, 2009-style Advisories "THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS"
He has done what he always intends to do, come in with a new name and disrupt the blog. Only this time he acts ignorant of English and managed to stir up the pot quite effectively.
:) Doing good so far... thx. Hope you doing good too.
I checked it out too. As far as PLANFALF, that came back to one of Doc's Don blogs. I also could not locate LSM/LSIM.
Hence, my earlier comment about preferring the WAG/SWAG model combo.
Sorry for the now outdated response, had to help unload groceries.
I thought a 100% chance meant it was a TD allready and they were waiting on HH to confirm. If not then what does 100% mean? Even 99% means maybee not buit 100%.....
crap :)
EDIT: Pic didn't show up, but look at the Gonzo recon.
From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
Subject: Tsunami Information Statement #1 issued 07/31/2011 at 4:46PM PDT
A strong earthquake has occurred, but a tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, or Alaska coast. NO tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas.
Based on the earthquake magnitude, location and historic tsunami records, a damaging tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska coasts. At coastal locations which have experienced strong ground shaking, local tsunamis are possible due to underwater landslides.
At 4:39 PM Pacific Daylight Time on July 31, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 6.8 occurred near the north coast of New Guinea, PNG . (Refer to the United States Geological Survey for official earthquake parameters.)
Pacific coastal regions outside California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska should refer to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center messages for information on the event.
This will be the only statement issued for this event by the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center unless conditions warrant. See the WCATWC web site for basic tsunami information, safety rules, and a tsunami travel time map and table. (NOTE: Travel time maps and tables indicate forecasted times only, not that a wave was generated.)
Yeah that's what I saw also.
It means that after the recon flight went in, someone said OH ^%$T, We realled f&^%ed up on this one.
The only reason I would figured is that of sampling the area closer to 91L to ensure the steering/thermo is properly being initialized for the 00Z and/or 06Z runs.
I don't really expect anything at 11 PM today anyway
The never say 100% chance, they said NEAR 100% chance, there is a small albeit very important difference there
For <7.0, not likely. And under 8.0, still not very likely.
Close to where I said it was starting to consolidate.
Indeed... the HH plane.
None from US Japan or Australia that I can find.
Yes, now the 500mb vort and the 850mb one are aligned. 91L should have a nice D-max tonight. TD 5 tomorrow.
Viewing: 4601 - 4651
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