Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L
Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.
Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.
Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.
Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Enjoy! Read for my opinion,
REPOST from previous blog.
18z GFDL kills it over Hispañola.
Do you just sit on the blog page and press refresh until a new blog post comes up? You seem to be the one who notifies the rest of us of a new one each time. :-D
You are the man.
Folks should realize that this may be one of the more difficult track forecasts we will have to make this season. It is very fragile with a lot of details involved. Very slight tweaks in intensity and track in the short-term could result in much larger ramifications down the line. Expect things to fluctuate in the forecasts during the coming days. Everyone in the areas threatened by this storm should be prepared, even if the track doesn't point directly to you right now.
O_o
Martinique radar
Amen! Amen! and Amen!
Levi...this is the most profound and grown up thing i think i have ever read on this blog in response to something that anyone in Admin has posted...thank you for that...it shows a true understanding of what ALL forecasters go thru...
I get lucky, mostly. Though I do web application development at times, so I have a few tricks at my disposal... ;-)
I doubt that the cyclone will dissipate over the mountains of Hispañola like the GFDL indicates, but some modest weakening seems likely.
A tropical cyclone can be a tropical depression, a tropical storm, or a hurricane. These three are subcategories of the category of "tropical cyclone."
All hurricanes are tropical cyclones, but not all tropical cyclones are hurricanes, It depends on both how strong the storm is, and where it is.
No. A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone.
I guess that's what I meant. So in the latest blog update for the intensity forecast - it's anywhere between a tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane... not between a tropical cyclone and a moderate 1 category hurricane.
Does this include the western GOM?
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