Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L
Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.
Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.
Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.
Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Never heard that saying- where might that be if you don't mind me asking.
Actually, you're wrong, Southeast Florida has had historically way more hurricane landfalls.
16.333 N 63.500 W
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Emily is cursed.
We've had boomers roll through here in Richmond VA this evening.
The system following Emily looks decent also... Emily is in the Box, and going for Orange Juice
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
I thought it was something "foot bridge".. but I'm old my memory might be failing.
just do what the navy seals do on a long mission wear depends........
:D Okay, Now that JFV went to Sleep... I think the Blog is Friendly and Fun now!
Over by Beaumont.
I think you should be okay and not be affected.
Honestly though, with Emily moving due west right now, the latest models showing it going out to sea seems quite unlikely at this point.
Early on I was thinking it might go out to sea, but that was just a long term shot at nothing. Even though the models have all the sudden shifted back that way, going out sea looks less likely then ever to me unfortunately. Like I said a lot could change, forecast confidence with this system is extremely low.
+infinity! But there is the mess of recovering afterwards with the lack of above mentioned luxuries. And those of us like myself who don't have the option of evacutating because of our employment. At that point it's just trying to find the safest place to ride it out and be prepared to be on your own for at least a week.
That would be Beaumont, Orange, Port Arthur.
Ya, they weather has been pretty wet in the area if I understand correctly. My GF is from Frederick, MD area and she's been getting excited about thunderstorms it seems almost daily. That's kinda different now that she's out on the OBX and she's still getting them.
One good thing, this storm is moving fast. We won't have two weeks of insanity to argue over it. Come this weekend, we will know. My money is on the end of the deflector shield. Hurricane into Florida this weekend.
Or people who haven't seen rain in 90+ days....
Stop wishcasting....
Thanks, been reading about crazy possibilities that have been posted on here, thought i do some detective work!
Thanks a lot. I have a cousin that lives just north of Beaumont on ~20 acres out in the woods up there. Went there after Rita back when I was in middle school (actually have the pictures from that day sitting next to me) and helped with clean up of his land. It was amazing how much trees were down. He still hasn't finished clearing out all of his trails yet- but then again after the storm they were all non-distinguishable.
Could anything turn out like Jeanne again?
My thoughts as well, if the eastern high builds back at just the right time, bingo, Jeanne, without the loop d loop.
But with that bloody "High" over Texas, we may not see the rain again for another month...
Interesting read about our rivers!!
BEFORE (~8PM):
AFTER (~11PM):
Remember these Models will go back in forth over the next 3 to 4 days. So just keep an eye on it.... Emily is moving west right now and thats all we know... Where she goes, only she knows if you know what I'm saying....
Taco :o)
Well, well, well.... look who looked into the blog.... good to see u mishy... hope the weather stays good for your bday...
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Arlene: Moderate to Deep Convection
Bret: Moderate Convection
Cindy: Light to Moderate Convection
Don: Moderate Convection
Emily: Moderate to Deep Convection so far...
This might be worse than Jeanne for them...
That's why i posted that to get an actual government agency to comment on how impossible it is... i was actually backing your point.
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