Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L
Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.
Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.
Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.
Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.
Angela
Reader Comments
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thanks for the loops. I can't get them on my iphone.
Maybe we should have a Storm party n Salinas tomorrow
I think he means for recurvature prospects.
Here's one out of Martinique.
DEGREES WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID...PERHAPS UPPER 90S...ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY SAT AFTN/EVENING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SE THROUGH THE CWA
SUN-MON...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND ITS INTERACTION WITH
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF FLORIDA MAKE FOR RATHER UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE CARRIED A BROAD-BRUSHED 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON SUNDAY...AND 20% CHANCES NORTH/30% SOUTH ON MON.
---
starting to get mentioned in my discussion sigh... if it follows the western side of the cone guess im getting walloped.
Salinas, California? Thats the only Salinas I know (I'm a Californian)
Don't you wish every little spit of land had level 3 radar? America seems to be the most interested in atmospheric research imo. Well maybe not most interested but most easily accessible.
Thanks!!
If you don't mind me asking- what is the annual fee for GREarth. I've been looking into it to go along with the 60 I shelled out for GRLevel3 (well worth the cost)
Actually, I was about to step out to do my nightly workouts. :/
Yeah. lol
Although, I would argue that this TUTT is helping the system more than hurting it at the moment. Most of the upper level convergence and sinking, drying, air associated with the TUTT is pretty far from the system. Also, it is clearly allowing convection to take off on the east side of the system as it is pulling air strongly out of the top of the system.
That would confirm what some of us have been thinking...
Kyle, I might not make it on AIM tonight, but I probably will tomorrow.
You want a stronger system to move into Hispaniola because the mountains will really disrupt the system. It will get really disorganized, and it will have a tough time organizing again once it emerges back into the Atlantic.
If it stays rather weak, the mountains won't destroy the system completely (inner core won't be impacted as much). If this happens, it could emerge back into the Atlantic and strengthen into a decent cyclone afterwards and possibly impact the United States.
A lot of what if scenarios.
Yup it is, I'm 100% sure. I'm gonna say it will be 45MPH at the next update.
Thoughts ?
$180/yr
Unfortunately the process of purchasing it has stopped.
Won't be available for some time.
we tuck into small protected bays and mangrove creeks for storms..
We call them hurricane holes. The one here in Bahia de hobos in PR are some of the best. I have 20' tall mangroves on three sides the front is only open a few hundred feet to more mangroves, the boat is aground in soft mud. Not very dangerous unless the storm surge goes over 12'
If the LLC is just to the west of the islands under that blob of convection, I would say pressures will have dropped- now whether that translates to a increase in wind speed I will not speculate because I truly don't know.
Intermediate advisory at 2am.
For sure, With that rain falling, we will have a good sleep...
Well not that it matters to me at that price. Would be nice to have but can't justify it.
On GR's website it seems you can still email (whoever it is your supposed to email) and request it- is he no longer taking requests?
Yeah
The site that processes the orders has been giving him a deal of trouble. There have also been some data feed issues.
Link
Awesome, gotta be an interesting life. Stay safe now
would you gamble 160k when you could not win but only lose??
I came to hobos because until yesterday it was supposed to go over Culebra or STT as a Cat 1 or better. The track shifted south yesterday after I was already almost her.
Also I knew if Emily did end up down here it would be because it was weaker as is the case due to the retarded development.
Riding out 60knts no big deal bu the 96 forcasted until yesterdays sucks
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