Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 00:09 GMT le 02 août 2011

Share this Blog
13
+

Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.


Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1566 - 1516

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Quoting nolacane2009:
When does the NHC update their tracks?


At regular (not intermediate) advisories at 5 and 11
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting texwarhawk:


No (E.) 02/0530Z would be takeoff time


Ah, I've never really gotten into the whole recon thing. Everyone else does such a good job with it that I see no reason why I should look into the details. I can read the hdobs and that's all I care to know.
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284



Furthest west I have seen the BAM suite shift. Interesting... still not sold on the western path yet though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting texwarhawk:


Well NHC has this:

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT

Wouldn't that mean 0600Z or 1200Z?
Nah, they're doing a fix every 6 hours. They do it for the fixes scheduled for this afternoon as well:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 02/1800Z,03/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/1615Z
D. 15.7N 63.3W
E. 02/1730Z TO 03/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Quoting MississippiWx:


Does that not mean they depart at 600z?
They were supposed to depart at 04:30UTC (letter C) and arrive in the cyclone at 06:00UTC (letter A).
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
When does the NHC update their tracks?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Does that not mean they depart at 600z?


No (E.) 02/0530Z would be takeoff time

I thought it might mean return time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There's a G-IV mission scheduled when it's supposed to be over Hispaniola-- would that give usable data or would the interaction with land complicate things?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting texwarhawk:


Well NHC has this:

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT

Wouldn't that mean 0600Z or 1200Z?


Does that not mean they depart at 600z?
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
sigh... really wish recon is outhere so I can see what's actually happening inside Emily. It get really late now, so I better get some sleep.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon was supposed to arrive in the system at 06z, so they probably cancelled it.

The next mission was scheduled for 12z, so 6 more hours...


Well NHC has this:

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT

Wouldn't that mean 0600Z or 1200Z?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
06z BAM suite has shifted westward once again. Our most accurate model thus far, the LGEM, mimics the 11p.m NHC track very closely.

The TVCN mimics the 11p.m NHC track as well, and then curves the system out to sea very sharply.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1553. scott39
Emily is going to have to slowing down alot, to start making that WNW turn at 65W.
Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Long time lurker, 8 pm Sat. puts this thing as a hurricane over me acording to NHC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting texwarhawk:


I thought they were going out at 0600Z. Think they rescheduled to 1200Z?
Recon was supposed to arrive in the system at 06z, so they probably cancelled it.

The next mission was scheduled for 12z, so 6 more hours...
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AL, 05, 2011080206, , BEST, 0, 155N, 636W, 35, 1006, TS,


They're just going to keep going off of continuity. They can't tell us anything new because recon isn't out there.
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting emguy:


The trough is what we are watching for to create a weakness (or a path of least resistance for the storm). This is induced by troughs that dig down from the north and break down the ridge. If you watch the loop, you will see a diving motion. However, the hub of the trough itself is NW of Maine and is moving out. The trough has a diving lobe and in there over Tenn, NC, GA, you will notice a couterclockwise spin evolving. This is a developing cutoff low that is getting left behind (in other words, a split). This will dive south around the Texas ridge into florida (and breakdown the ridge over the Atlantic a bit more), but then would likely "retrograde" west into the gulf south of the ridge. IE, if this persists, the path of least resistance would angle towards Florida as the ridge fills in to the north of the new cutoff and the Atlantic Ridge rebuilds. Just something to keep a close eye on at the moment to see if trends continue. It's technical stuff, but hope it helps.


I'd like to see what NAM has to say about it on it's 1200Z run
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1547. emguy
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Still learning about tropics... what do this mean?


The trough is what we are watching for to create a weakness (or a path of least resistance for the storm). This is induced by troughs that dig down from the north and break down the ridge. If you watch the loop, you will see a diving motion. However, the hub of the trough itself is NW of Maine and is moving out. The trough has a diving lobe and in there over Tenn, NC, GA, you will notice a couterclockwise spin evolving. This is a developing cutoff low that is getting left behind (in other words, a split). This will dive south around the Texas ridge into florida (and breakdown the ridge over the Atlantic a bit more), but then would likely "retrograde" west into the gulf south of the ridge. IE, if this persists, the path of least resistance would angle towards Florida as the ridge fills in to the north of the new cutoff and the Atlantic Ridge rebuilds. Just something to keep a close eye on at the moment to see if trends continue. It's technical stuff, but hope it helps.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Moved over the "supposed" circulation. Would be nice if Recon was in there to know whether or not the circulation relocated towards the east.


I thought they were going out at 0600Z. Think they rescheduled to 1200Z?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1544. JLPR2
I went on a scavenger hunt for west winds on islands. LOL!

Grenada: Speed / Dir 6 mph from West

That's all I found so far.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AL, 05, 2011080206, , BEST, 0, 155N, 636W, 35, 1006, TS,
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wouldn't say it's going into the Gulf, because there will be a shortwave trough that follows behind the trough currently off of the eastern coast, so Emily will be making a turn towards the north eventually. It will be interesting to see how far west it can make it though, before the shortwave picks it up and sends it out to sea.

If a trough split were to occur, it would be worse news for the eastern coast of Florida than it would be for the Gulf coast.
Kman posted a map showing the split and shortwave trough I think. How far west and how strong seems to be the question indeed.
Member Since: 9 juillet 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
1541. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wouldn't say it's going into the Gulf, because there will be a shortwave trough that follows behind the trough currently off of the eastern coast, so Emily will be making a turn towards the north eventually. It will be interesting to see how far west it can make it though, before the shortwave picks it up and sends it out to sea.

If a trough split were to occur, it would be worse news for the eastern coast of Florida than it would be for the Gulf coast.
I think we will be suprised of how far W it goes.
Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Did HH cancel the current flight?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
meaning Emily will be stronger than forecasted if the split were to occur? Sorry... trying to learn here.
Not necessarily, the trough split won't influence the intensity of the system.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wouldn't say it's going into the Gulf, because there will be a shortwave trough that follows behind the trough currently off of the eastern coast, so Emily will be making a turn towards the north eventually. It will be interesting to see how far west it can make it though, before the shortwave picks it up and sends it out to sea.

If a trough split were to occur, it would be worse news for the eastern coast of Florida than it would be for the Gulf coast.
meaning Emily will be stronger than forecasted if the split were to occur? Sorry... trying to learn here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
It looks like she is trying to some "weight" on her W side.


Wouldn't it be more like lose weight? I mean it is Low Pressure after all XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting texwarhawk:
Wait a sec--- What happened with convergence?!?!?

Moved over the "supposed" circulation. Would be nice if Recon was in there to know whether or not the circulation relocated towards the east.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Anticyclone no longer appears to no longer be stacked (according to CMISS data)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1534. scott39
It looks like she is trying to some "weight" on her W side.
Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting texwarhawk:


Well you got Houston covered as long as it's below a 3-- Would be extremely surprised to see it track here though lol.


And with Kori and xcool in NOLA...the GOMEX is covered!!

I hope this thing does not hit anywhere in CONUS but regardless of what I want it is going to happen eventually. I love living close to the beach...this is just part of it!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wait a sec--- What happened with convergence?!?!?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
um... judging by "uh-oh", it's going into Gulf of Mexico now? (not wishcaster as I live in NC)
Quoting midgulfmom:
Eastern Gulf right?
I wouldn't say it's going into the Gulf, because there will be a shortwave trough that follows behind the trough currently off of the eastern coast, so Emily will be making a turn towards the north eventually. It will be interesting to see how far west it can make it though, before the shortwave picks it up and sends it out to sea.

If a trough split were to occur, it would be worse news for the eastern coast of Florida than it would be for the Gulf coast.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Guess we have to wait for HH to get a true and correct center placement. Isn't it kinda like informed guesswork with out the plane, trying to look at sat loops.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1529. JLPR2
To me, it looks like Emily is back here, but we need recon to know for sure just where and how is the LLC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1528. scott39
Quoting TomTaylor:
At the moment, yea the TUTT is probably the biggest inhibitor for development. It is greatly helping convection flourish to the east. However, it is also providing upper level convergence, subsidence, and dry air far to the NW of the system which Emily will have to deal with later. Also, it is providing shear to the north. There is still divergence in the upper levels on the immediate NW side of Emily, but it's not nearly as significant as it is on the east side. This may have also been part of the reason why this system has been so disorganized over the last few days as noted by the mid level circulation staying back to the east.

Later down the road, land interaction should be the biggest inhibitor.
So we shouldnt expect too much out of Emily for the next 72 hours? Does the trough only pull on a strong TC?
Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Uh Oh mosquito sprayers just drove down my street-- The greatest thing about being in this horrible drought is the mosquitoes haven't been nearly as disturbing as usual.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Emily will want to follow the energy left behind from that trough. Considering the split is in the Gulf, guess where Emily is gonna wanna go?
um... judging by "uh-oh", it's going into Gulf of Mexico now? (not wishcaster as I live in NC)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:


HEY THANKS can i get a good web page to veiw theese?


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting traumaboyy:


Well we at least have South and Northwest Florida covered!!


Well you got Houston covered as long as it's below a 3-- Would be extremely surprised to see it track here though lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
6z model plots will be coming in about 30-45 minutes.

Global models take much longer however.



HEY THANKS can i get a good web page to veiw theese?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1521. JLPR2
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
note the pressure as well..also note the bouy doesnt really mean anything probably the strongest winds arent in the specific area.


Emily's strongest winds are supposed to be in that area. Tropical systems have the strongest winds around their center and the north/northeast side of tropical systems is typically the strongest side.
And then there is this:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Emily will want to follow the energy left behind from that trough. Considering the split is in the Gulf, guess where Emily is gonna wanna go?
Eastern Gulf right?
Member Since: 9 juillet 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
Hate to get off topic but I'm watching Storm Riders on TWC and I find it much better than Storm Chasers on Discovery. It's explaining what a couplet is and how to find it on radar- that's already more informative than Storm Chasers which is getting more and more drama filled in my opinion, anyway back to Emily-

I know the people have been criticizing the models, but it seems since this thing was labeled invest they have been pretty good only really shifting between re-curving north of PR and making it to S-FL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Should Emily pay me a visit in Miami, I'm definitely gonna be blogging.

Considering the fact that I lost power during the tropical thunderstorm known as Bonnie, I'll probably have to start blogging from my phone as soon as the outer bands start approaching, LOL.


Well we at least have South and Northwest Florida covered!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1566 - 1516

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
28 ° F
Couvert

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron