Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 00:09 GMT le 02 août 2011

+13

Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.

Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.

Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.

Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.

Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.

Angela

Categories: Hurricane

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151. Tazmanian 00:47 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting GTcooliebai: Hey Taz, the entire Peninsula of FL. is in the cone or uncertainty, cough* ack I mean cone of DOOM.* ok Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111311

152. ElConando 00:47 GMT le 02 août 2011
Is current movement North of Due West? (I don't mean WNW). Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

153. violet312s 00:47 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting ncstorm: well this just narrows it down.. Yes, that settles it! LOL Member Since: 1 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 769

154. ncstorm 00:48 GMT le 02 août 2011
so is the blog discounting the GFS..did something happen because this isnt west..this is going back east? Link Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8322

155. TropicalAnalystwx13 00:48 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting cloudburst2011: where are you from let me guess florida lol No, I'm from Southeastern North Carolina. And if you are implying that I'm wishcasting for RI to take place, you're mistaken. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25136

156. stormwatcherCI 00:48 GMT le 02 août 2011
Actually passed very near the south coast of Grand Cayman. Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

157. Vincent4989 00:48 GMT le 02 août 2011
Hmm... i think the EPAC season will be all hurricane and no tropical storm and depressions Member Since: 13 novembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728

158. presslord 00:48 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting robj144: Quoting from the blog: "General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast." there's no inconsistency in that post....it can be a tropical cyclone without being a hurricane...further...you might wanna check out her credentials before you mouth off about what she 'knows'.....although I'll concede she DID attend Georgia Tech...which is certainly a stain on her record.... Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

159. trey33 00:49 GMT le 02 août 2011
PcolaDan: Thanks for the heads up about the new blog, sorry about that. I got distracted, apparently there were 3 pit bulls on the loose - hopefully that means she is NOT coming to Tampa. (they did scare all the ants away however) Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 475

160. bwat 00:49 GMT le 02 août 2011
Levi, I hate to bother you, but I know that you made your own tropical forecast videos in the past. Do you still do that? If you do can I please get the link? I have got a new laptop recently because my screen went out and I lost all my bookmarks. Thanks. Member Since: 18 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 338

161. IceCoast 00:49 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting PcolaDan: Was a bust day for them. Job well done!!!! You mean it was a busy day for them Lol! Funny how the word bust actually sort of worked in that sentence and context. Member Since: 17 octobre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1254

162. stormpetrol 00:49 GMT le 02 août 2011
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 00:26Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305) Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 4 Observation Number: 10 A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:05:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°58'N 61°15'W (14.9667N 61.25W) B. Center Fix Location: 25 miles (40 km) to the SSE (158°) from Roseau, Dominica. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the E (94°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 208° at 26kts (From the SSW at ~ 29.9mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 310m (1,017ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 312m (1,024ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Wind Outbound: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:39:10Z Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:39:10Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

163. Hurricane4Lex 00:49 GMT le 02 août 2011
By the way a friend keeps on telling me there are 3 areas to watch. I know it Emily and that wave that came off of Africa but where's the 3rd? Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 657

164. IKE 00:49 GMT le 02 août 2011
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

165. TropicalAnalystwx13 00:49 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting ElConando: Is current movement North of Due West? (I don't mean WNW). Tropical Storm Emily is moving at 275 degrees. West is 270 degrees. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25136

166. hurricaneben 00:49 GMT le 02 août 2011
I just made a new blog entry on Emily, check it out. Member Since: 15 mai 2009 Posts: 330 Comments: 597

167. GTcooliebai 00:50 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting sdswwwe: That ridge above Emily keeps getting stronger and stronger which should keep her on a more westerly path. I am predicting a turn north on the very eastern tip of Hispaniola or the western tip of Cuba, being more of a threat to the Keys and southern tip of Florida. Thoughts anyone? If the A/B high is indeed getting stronger on recent model runs then the more west it will go to include the spine of the state & then the west coast of FL. I think models are forecasting a weakness in the ridge at some point. Member Since: 31 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5163

168. midgulfmom 00:50 GMT le 02 août 2011
139. ncstorm...LOL.. something for everyone! Member Since: 9 juillet 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

170. scott39 00:50 GMT le 02 août 2011
Emily still looks big on the Dorvack Sat. Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

172. zoomiami 00:50 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting seafarer459: T Y Angela! Question, Had the models enough time to digest the upgrade? Were they not processing this, as an invest? The information fed into the models during the formation period is not very accurate, once the low is closed, and the air surrounding the storm is sampled and fed into the models, the results are more accurate. Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4064

173. ncstorm 00:50 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting midgulfmom: 139. ncstorm...LOL.. something for everyone! LOL..and then some.. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8322

174. Vincent4989 00:51 GMT le 02 août 2011
Member Since: 13 novembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728

176. angiest 00:51 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting ncstorm: well this just narrows it down.. Where do you go to generate that? Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4757

177. amd 00:51 GMT le 02 août 2011
Even though the small LLC of Emily is still about 100 miles away, buoy 42060 had 1-min sustained winds max out at 31 mph, with max gusts to 36 mph. I suspect that if Emily begins to gain latitude, that this buoy will have some tropical storm force sustained winds tonight. Member Since: 29 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024

178. stormpetrol 00:51 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Actually passed very near the south coast of Grand Cayman. Thank you for posting that, That is one time we all samed to see light and prepared accordindly! Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

179. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 00:51 GMT le 02 août 2011
012336Z AUG 11 FM FWC-N BT UNCLAS MSGID/FWC-N/OVLY2/0087/AUG OVLY/ATL STORM 05L/011800Z0/AUG/1OF1/TROP STORM EMILY(05L)/METOC TEXT/12//G/150600N2/0603000W9/S TEXT/12//G/163000N0/0660000W2/S TEXT/12//G/182400N5/0703000W0/S TEXT/12//G/210000N3/0740000W1/S TEXT/12//G/240000N6/0773000W7/S TEXT/12//G/260000N8/0793000W9/H LINE/6//G/150600N2/0603000W9/163000N0/0660000W2/1 82400N5/0703000W0 /210000N3/0740000W1/240000N6/0773000W7/260000N8/0 793000W9 ARC/0/G///150600N2/0603000W9/060NM/060NM ARC/0/G///163000N0/0660000W2/060NM/060NM ARC/0/G///182400N5/0703000W0/060NM/060NM ARC/0/G///210000N3/0740000W1/060NM/060NM TEXT/12//G/130600N0/0580000W3/TROP STORM EMILY TEXT/12//G/120600N9/0580000W3/01 AUG 1800Z TEXT/12//G/110600N8/0580000W3/MAX 35 KT TEXT/12//G/100600N7/0580000W3/275 AT 15 KT TEXT/12//G/090600N5/0580000W3/34 KT RADII SHOWN TEXT/12//G/163000N0/0620000W8/0218Z MAX 45 TEXT/12//G/182400N5/0663000W5/0318Z MAX 50 TEXT/12//G/210000N3/0700000W7/0418Z MAX 40 TEXT/12//G/240000N6/0733000W3/0518Z MAX 50 TEXT/12//G/260000N8/0753000W5/0618Z MAX 65 ENDAT BT #0001 NNNN Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40370

180. PcolaDan 00:51 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting cloudburst2011: pensecola dan have ozz on stanby and ready to go...i have a feeling fla is in for a good lick if it misses haiti... He lives in New Mexico now. :\| Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

181. SAINTHURRIFAN 00:51 GMT le 02 août 2011
well I witnessed the fully fiery of Fredrick.And I guess yall forrgot about George .It went over DR and every othrr island.If this goe south of DR then Fredrick/Ivan Dennis track is kind of what I sense. Member Since: 20 août 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 668

182. seafarer459 00:51 GMT le 02 août 2011
A question. When was 91L upgraded? What time Did the current models initialize? Are we seeing Model runs based on Emily, or 91L?? And does that make a difference? Member Since: 16 juillet 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515

183. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 00:52 GMT le 02 août 2011
WTNT01 KNGU 012331 WARNING ATCN MIL 05L NAT 110801234731 2011080118 05L EMILY 001 01 275 15 SATL 030 T000 151N 0605W 035 R034 060 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD T012 156N 0635W 040 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 060 NW QD T024 165N 0660W 045 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 060 NW QD T036 174N 0685W 050 R050 015 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD T048 184N 0705W 050 R050 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD T072 210N 0740W 040 R034 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD T096 240N 0775W 050 T120 260N 0795W 065 AMP NNNN REF/A/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/010400Z AUG 11// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM EMILY (05L) WARNING NR 001 1. TROPICAL STORM EMILY (05L) WARNING NR 001 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05L 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 60.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 60.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 15.6N 63.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 16.5N 66.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 17.4N 68.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 18.4N 70.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 21.0N 74.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 24.0N 77.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 26.0N 79.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 012330Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 61.3W OR APPROX 889NM EAST OF GUANTANAMO BAY, CUBA. THERE ARE NO 12FT SEAS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA. 010400Z AUG 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION NEXT WARNINGS AT 020301Z, 020901Z, 021501Z AND 022101Z.// BT #0001 NNNN 0511072800 77N 339W 20 0511072806 79N 352W 20 0511072812 81N 365W 20 0511072818 84N 378W 20 0511072900 87N 391W 20 0511072906 91N 403W 25 0511072912 90N 420W 25 0511072918 94N 436W 25 0511073000 101N 446W 30 0511073006 114N 455W 30 0511073012 120N 468W 30 0511073018 125N 486W 30 0511073100 127N 500W 30 0511073106 129N 513W 30 0511073112 131N 528W 30 0511073118 133N 540W 30 0511080100 135N 551W 25 0511080106 143N 567W 25 0511080112 150N 585W 30 0511080118 151N 605W 35 Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40370

184. robj144 00:52 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting presslord: there's no inconsistency in that post....it can be a tropical cyclone without being a hurricane...further...you might wanna check out her credentials before you mouth off about what she 'knows'.....although I'll concede she DID attend Georgia Tech...which is certainly a stain on her record.... The more I think about, it is correct, but extremely weird way of saying that. A cyclone can also be a hurricane. A tropical storm would have been a better way to say it. Member Since: 19 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 814

185. ncstorm 00:52 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting angiest: Where do you go to generate that? Its on WU tropical weather side Link Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8322

186. MississippiWx 00:52 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI: I'm guessing you're implying that it could take an Ivan-like track, but anything west of 85W is out of the equation. I can say that with confidence because the death ridge isn't going to move much for a while. The only way we get anything west of 85W is if it goes south of 25N. Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8507

187. angiest 00:52 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Tropical Storm Emily is moving at 275 degrees. West is 270 degrees. Also known as may-as-well-be-west. Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4757

188. xcool 00:52 GMT le 02 août 2011
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

189. MiamiHurricanes09 00:53 GMT le 02 août 2011
00z model plots below, the red line is the consensus. Remain calm, I repeat, remain calm, LOL: Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

190. stormwatcherCI 00:53 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting stormpetrol: Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 00:26Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305) Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 4 Observation Number: 10 A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:05:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°58'N 61°15'W (14.9667N 61.25W) B. Center Fix Location: 25 miles (40 km) to the SSE (158°) from Roseau, Dominica. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the E (94°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 208° at 26kts (From the SSW at ~ 29.9mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 310m (1,017ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 312m (1,024ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Wind Outbound: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:39:10Z Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:39:10Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet If the center fix is the co-ordinates of the coc now that means she moved a little south of west. That is how the steering looks to me in the short term. Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

191. patrikdude2 00:53 GMT le 02 août 2011
Member Since: 20 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 225

192. angiest 00:53 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting ncstorm: Its on WU tropical weather side Link Hah, somehow I have always missed the historical link. Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4757

193. PcolaDan 00:54 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting trey33: PcolaDan: Thanks for the heads up about the new blog, sorry about that. I got distracted, apparently there were 3 pit bulls on the loose - hopefully that means she is NOT coming to Tampa. (they did scare all the ants away however) If that works on fire ants. Send them my way. (haven't done the sugar and borax trick yet) Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

195. RMM34667 00:54 GMT le 02 août 2011
Might be a dumb question, but: If Emily trends more west than predicted, is it possible she will pass over DR/Haiti where it is less mountainous (that don't look right but you know what I mean) or even miss it? Member Since: 7 septembre 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 910

196. caneswatch 00:54 GMT le 02 août 2011
I leave to watch a movie, and I see Emily has formed and she's gonna be a hurricane off where I live. Great........ Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

197. TropicalAnalystwx13 00:55 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting angiest: Also known as may-as-well-be-west. Yup, lol. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25136

198. seafarer459 00:55 GMT le 02 août 2011
Sorry Zoo! re posted the question before I saw your response... Sorry Blog! Member Since: 16 juillet 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515

199. scott39 00:56 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: 00z model plots below, the red line is the consensus. Remain calm, I repeat, remain calm, LOL: Get your Zanax filled people! LOL Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

200. violet312s 00:56 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting angiest: Hah, somehow I have always missed the historical link. I like the historical...goes to show that at this point it can go anywhere. Far too soon. Member Since: 1 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 769

201. ProgressivePulse 00:56 GMT le 02 août 2011
Quoting ElConando: Seems to me the stronger this gets the more disrupted the storm shall be. At the moment the NHC believes that it won't be too strong and its core will recover quickly enough. Hard to say ATM, last I checked it still had some organizing to do and conditions are not the greatest at the moment. Those should act to keep Emily in check up to landfall. Hopefully the erroneous armchair forecasters realize the complexity of this forecast and leave it to the highly experienced and professionals. There is a lot of people and property in the way of the current forecast. Member Since: 19 août 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4322

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