Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L
Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.
Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.
Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.
Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Zoo - you still maintain that GE map of all our locations? Yup, I'm a way back person too. Been away too long.
Even if it misses Haiti to the west and hits Eastern cuba it's got tall mountains to deal with.
+100
Extreme Eastern GOM is possible, but even that's a stretch unless something changes.
Where do you get that?
Haven't updated it in two seasons -- but if there is enough interest I can work on it this year.
Tks Taz!
might be Carolina Beach that they venture to..Wrightsville Beach parking fees are crazy..
Well the further west it gets the bigger the threat to the US.
That's just too funny where the red line is LOL
Doubtful.
Ok, that looked crazy from any of the consensus models from NHC.
Statistical
Dynamic
I think it has a good chance. You have to keep in mind that the models have wanted to "curve" the storm all week but the track keeps getting further westward. Now it "curves" and turns right into Florida. All it takes is a little bit more of a westward track and the thing turns right up into the Gulf.
Which is why my family and I go to Topsail Beach.
I am looking at that and also the feature right behind it which looks even better to me.
It is not a system at this time, but we will need to watch this area very closely as it is a strong tropical wave, and some models have developed it periodically.
Isn't that the old tracks?
Your graphics on 156 brought back horrific memories, probably more for you than me. 36 hours out Ivan was forecast to go right through Jamaica but would have missed the Caymans.
Instead a late wobble to the west saved us from the worst but I know what happened to you. It shows that it does not take much to change things.
The (cuba) westward statistic model runs look the most likely to me
but you have to tend to the sharks there..LOL..I like Carolina Beach better..more family friendly
This is over southwest corner of PR
Just don't believe the pattern supports too far west into the Gulf.
Interesting trivia for Brevard County during the last 2 hurricanes...... The only 2 fatalities were from evacuees.
I am guessing Eastern Gulf
Low at this point. It should be crossing over the island in 48 hours or less, and even though conditions will be favorable, it may not have enough time.
Modest strengthening to at least Don's intensity (50 mph) is highly likely at this point however..Likely higher. The National Hurricane Center takes it up to 60 mph, which is a good forecast.
Its okay, its their home anyway. LOL
Seriously, quit making new names. It has been old for 2 years now. I'm sure this girl really likes you using her picture and posing as her. Now to ignore Jason for literally the 20th time.
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