Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting lovejessicaa9:
8pm tracks

Seriously, quit making new names. It has been old for 2 years now. I'm sure this girl really likes you using her picture and posing as her. Now to ignore Jason for literally the 20th time.

Just so we don't forget, Muifa looks to be successfully completing a EWRC and appears to be strengthening again. Muifa is a massive and very dangerous typhoon to those in it's path. JTWC predicts a direct hit on Okinawa.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Low at this point. It should be crossing over the island in 48 hours or less, and even though conditions will be favorable, it may not have enough time.

Modest strengthening to at least Don's intensity (50 mph) is highly likely at this point however..Probably higher.

Currently, I am not too sure on the track to Hispaniola. I still think she i too far south and stuck in the east to west flow.

Quoting lovejessicaa9:
8pm tracks

It says 2 pm on your chart. :)

Quoting Hurricanejer95:
273 and 275: Old model tracks

no those are new model tracks..8pm is the time..

Quoting wolftribe2009:


The (cuba) westward statistic model runs look the most likely to me

All I know is that things can and will change at the drop of a hat and once any tropical system enters the Caribbean we ALL need to watch it closely.

Quoting FallingBarometer:
Looks like we are going to get some nasty weather here in MLB. Local news stations already getting the "run for the hills" message out there.

Interesting trivia for Brevard County during the last 2 hurricanes...... The only 2 fatalities were from evacuees.

I am watching CFNEWS 13 and they are saying get prepared, which is the right message to broadcast, residents should be ready and prepared even if it does not hit. The meteorologist did say the path could change but he can't just say well heres the track it will change and miss Florida because of one model run.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
out of the 00Z runs I will go with the CLP5 I tink the storm will be on the southern side of cuba not the northern

you do know that is not a model based on any current conditions, it is purely climatology based for a storm in that position.

Coincidence? Back in 1987 there was a hurricane Emily (cat.3) with almost the same track as this new storm...

Quoting stormhank:
Im no expert here but doesnt the forcast track remind everyone of David in 1979?? over hispainola and rides up the east coast of Fla makin landfall in the carolinas?? I know things will change thats why I have alotta crow stored away lol

Yes, that is a very good comparison for track. However, according to Levi, the re-curvature should be a bit more fast, thus saving my area here in Southeastern North Carolina. :D

Quoting cat5hurricane:

Notice the time stamps for each of the models. They say 8pm.

Also, notice the GFS track on the latest 18Z run. It has shifted back east.


Not sure how much creedence to put into that, since these were originated before Emily was declared a TS and before the data was incorporated into the models.

Those are interpolated, not initialized.

Emily loos like it might do a David type track,

Quoting Hurricanes101:


you do realize it has 2 days before any landfall in Florida. On top of that the waters are very warm in the Bahamas and the islands there would do nothing to hurt the intensity.

A lot can happen in 2 days

NHC has seen it happen often enough. Their cat 1 at FL landfall is quite reasonable and may be an underestimation if Emily slows enough over Bahamian waters. Not the scenario I prefer - I like the dissapate over Hispaniola one, myself - but certainly not out of the realm of possibility...

Quoting StratoCumulus:


Coincidence? Back in 1987 there was a hurricane category 3 also calls Emily with almost the same track as this new storm

Yes, but this Emily should track a lot farther west that Emily (1987) did. Emily (1987) storm re-curved after making landfall in Hispaniola, Emily (2011) should continue WNW after that.

00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest91 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

Glad to hear there is a ridge over Texas and a High over the Gulf... How far west will she go however and what about a "stall" possiblity? That would change things. Do models ever predict a stall or do they move the system constantly at a certain pace? Just wondering because there have been storms that changed direction more than once and circled around, etc. Do models ever predict such things?

A wet, sticky day on Grand Cayman.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

There seemed to be some nice blow up there for a little while...

Quoting StratoCumulus:


Coincidence? Back in 1987 there was a hurricane category 3 also calls Emily with almost the same track as this new storm

And history never repeats itself exactly.

Slowing down a bit and growing.

Quoting cat5hurricane:

You buying the curve out to sea? What are your thoughts on where she might head?

I still think a tad further west. How far west? Of that I am unsure.

Quoting ElConando:
This is getting annoying. 10 of the last 15 ppl I've ignored have the jason handle.

And if you look at the total list (handle names) you'll find about 12 "jason" names. And each blog is probably active.

is moving rigth to Puerto Rico? i don't like the way that the low level spiral bands ara moving :(.....more than Hortence look like Jeanne..

00Z Emily Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

Quoting cloudburst2011:


lol apparently you dont read the posts here are you are not a regular...thats all these guys talk about a hurricane hitting fla...well i hoping its a cat 4 and it sits over fla for 2 days then maybe if they go through that they wont talk like that anymore...they just dont know how serious it is...all they talk about is having hurricane parties ..its sick..

Wow, HUGE generalization!! Those of us who lost homes in Frances and Jeanne, worked around the clock caring for other people while our possessions sat damaged and/or destroyed would beg to differ!! I'm sick being in the bullseye, but don't want anyone else to suffer!! There weren't many parties on the Treasure Coast in 2004-2005, at least not in my circles!! Please don't lump Floridians in one big group!! I witnessed first hand the suffering in our community. I'll take what mother nature hands out because I'm a survivor, but it doesn't mean I have to like it!! Please reconsider your thoughts.

hmm lloks like emily is blowing up at this hour what time is recon going in again est tia

Quoting robj144:


It says 2 pm on your chart. :)

Did somebody say chart?

Quoting midgulfmom:
Glad to hear there is a ridge over Texas and a High over the Gulf... How far west will she go however and what about a "stall" possiblity? That would change things. Do models ever predict a stall or do they move the system constantly at a certain pace? Just wondering because there have been storms that changed direction more than once and circled around, etc. Do models ever predict such things?

Yes they have as the models have gotten more accurate in the last few years.

well climo shos a storm in that area at this time would do this plus I think that the rest of the models will soon follow as I said I am expecting the models and the track to shift south and west

Tropical Storm Emily has organized a lot since earlier today. It has finally fixed that competing centers problem that had been haunting it for most of its life. In addition, the storm is stacked in all levels, something that Don was never ever to do. To further add to the difference between Don and Emily, the latter will be in a lot better environment for strengthening, and thus, Emily should get a lot stronger than Don ever was. The only problem that both of the systems will share is dry air, which will plague Emily throughout most, if not all, of her life.

Water Vapor:



Rainbow:



I expect Emily will strengthen to 60-65 mph before it makes landfall in Hispaniola/Dominican Republic, and then weaken down to 45-50 mph or slightly less as it crosses the island. After that, it is anyone's guess, although I believe it will become at least a weak Category 1 hurricane at some point in that area.

I try to post real time info and images, not what might be or have been( take back the have been part) used as a guide to explain, I really can't understand why so many are hung up on models( while used for guidance one must draw their own skill and conclusions) or for that matter we all could call ourselves meteorologists ! Ck back back in the morning to see what Emily is up to, never know I might need the rest!

Quoting hcubed:


And if you look at the total list (handle names) you'll find about 12 "jason" names. And each blog is probably active.

not for much longer

Humbly, every so, I think that the track will be more west than expected, possibly into the Gulf as well as the system becoming much stronger than originally expected.

We shall see.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
out of the 00Z runs I will go with the CLP5 I tink the storm will be on the southern side of cuba not the northern

Gee I wonder why?

Quoting Ameister12:

4th time I ignored him today. I agree. Admins do need to do something with him. It's extremely annoying.

Do ya'll realize that if jason had stuck with one name, he'd have more posts than Taz?

The image below shows the weakness over S Fla with the high from the East and the high to the West and the trough digging South between the two. The two highs will attempt to bridge.

Emily's forward speed and relative weak condition will determine how far West it gets to before feeling the pull of the trough. The NHC forecast track is predicated on the system pulling up in response to the trough. My own view, FWIW, is that unless Emily slows down and deepens some more it will likely push to a position close to the gap between Jamaica and Western Haiti.

In other words, more West than presently forecast. The forward motion is too fast now for any significant deepening as the area of lowest pressure is out to the West of the deep convection.

Quoting ncstorm:


might be Carolina Beach that they venture to..Wrightsville Beach parking fees are crazy..

Not if you bike there!

Quoting FallingBarometer:
Looks like we are going to get some nasty weather here in MLB. Local news stations already getting the "run for the hills" message out there.

Interesting trivia for Brevard County during the last 2 hurricanes...... The only 2 fatalities were from evacuees.

The only hills I am running for are the ones that could form in the Atlantic if this thing takes the eastern track. My wishcast would be for it to recurve soon and spare most everyone but the shipping lanes.

Think about it. A system that covers most of the Antilles simultaneously, that is a large system. Even when it consolidates, it will be a reasonable sized cane.

Quoting Relix:
Slowing down a bit and growing.

yes the local news said it's only going to pass 50 miles off shore, that's too close for comfort

From Dominica via StormCarib site:

....Amazingly the power held throughout the worst of it, which lasted a couple of hours at most, and�apart from a few flicks there were no surges either in the�current. Compliments to the electricity company -Domlec!
However, throughout the capital there was minor-moderate street flooding, but this has since subsided as the rains have mostly tapered off though at present a�light shower is now falling. Thankfully there were no strong wind gusts with these intense lines of thunderstorms/ thundershowers in Roseau, however, other parts of the island might be able to report differently.
�
*UPDATE - AS OF 7:30P.M. Tropical storm Emily has formed since the well defined circulation center finally formed near Dominica. We are MOST THANKFUL TO GOD for this LATE FORMATION OF EMILY since it meant we got the most weak 'version' of the storm so to speak. We may get some more moderate -heavy rain later but as for now its light rain in the south with no strong winds...no one is complaining! Most likely it may get a bit gusty later tonight but for now Emily has been a most proper Lady. May she�be ever so gentle to all in her future path...�
Let us all keep safe and sound during this Hurricane season!

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/dominica.sh tml

Notable Hispaniola Mountain Peaks
• Pico Duarte[1] PB Dominican Republic Island of Hispaniola 3098 m
10,164 feet 3098 m
10,164 feet 941 km
584 miles

• Loma Alto de la Bandera PB Dominican Republic Island of Hispaniola 2842 m
9,324 feet 1502 m
4,928 feet 45 km
28 miles


• Pic la Selle[2] PB Haiti Island of Hispaniola 2680 m
8,793 feet 2650 m
8,694 feet 127 km
79 miles

• Pic Macaya PB Haiti Island of Hispaniola 2347 m
7,700 feet 2087 m
6,847 feet 216 km
134 miles


• Loma Gajo en Medio PB Dominican Republic Island of Hispaniola 2279 m
7,477 feet 1779 m
5,837 feet 57 km
36 miles


Link

Quoting kmanislander:
The image below shows the weakness over S Fla with the high from the East and the high to the West and the trough digging South between the two. The two highs will attempt to bridge.

Emily's forward speed and relative weak condition will determine how far West it gets to before feeling the pull of the trough. The NHC forecast track is predicated on the system pulling up in response to the trough. My own view, FWIW, is that unless Emily slows down and deepens some more it will likely push to a position close to the gap between Jamaica and Western Haiti.

In other words, more West than presently forecast. The forward motion is too fast now for any significant deepening as the area of lowest pressure is out to the West of the deep convection.

Thank you. Don't see much of a right turn at this point either.