Tropical Storm Emily forms from Invest 91L
Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 7:30pm EDT as it moves west into the Caribbean.
Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.
Figure 2. Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical storm and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.
Dr. Rob Carver might have an update later this evening, and I'll definitely be back tomorrow, early afternoon, with a new post on Emily.
Angela
Reader Comments
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agreed! My "Red Alert" would highlight Eastern Cuba and the, Jamaica area. Any further east and it would only be a moderate risk to me. I keep thinking the most westward track of NOAA's cone is most likely.
6 of one and half a dozen of the other as we say in the Caribbean. Highly unlikely it remains intact as a TS crossing over Haiti which is what the guidance shows
Oh NO--not another one. I remember David on Labor Day weekend 1979, was it? Already been the BULLSEYE for Frances and Jeanne here at the St. Lucie inlet, and Wilma came in our back door 13 months later. We have had enough. Could use a little rain from a tropical storm, tho.
Link
we all can remember TS Allison 1995. Weak storms can cause serious problems. Also TS Jeanne killed 1000 people as a weak storm.
If you have mobile capabilities (wifi, etc), check into the Wundermap feature. One of the "overlays" is the Road Trip feature, allowing you to use the Google route feature, and display weather along the route.
Can give you a little "heads-up" as to where you may want to lay-over for awhile.
LOL
It could still enter the Gulf of Mexico. It's not as if some of the models aren't predicting such. There's still a lot up in the air though, including how much troughing we actually get over the western Atlantic, and how strong Emily becomes.
Well not every storm is killed by Hispaniola. It may die, but a lot of them regenerate as well. The models are also not in agreement on Hispaniola destroying Emily. Many of them keep her intact, not that they're particularly good at predicting the behavior of storms that move over that island.
Even if it did somehow make it into the SE GOM, there is no way it's busting through that stubborn texas ridge.
At this time I think it is nearly impossible for Emily to go out to sea without hitting land.
The blocking high to the north of Hispaniola is clearly visible on the above WV loop. I would not be surprised if Emily remains on the more westerly track, and passes south of Hispaiola, and just north of Jamaica.
Link
Amen
I doubt it makes it that far, but do keep in mind that there are sizable track errors at five days and beyond.
Jason doesn't like the new tracks, because they don't go out to sea.
Mobile, AL to North Carolina is probably where I'd say the "bullseye" is now...
LOL!
+1
Its basically impossible to get this too far into the GOM because High Pressure will be parked over the Western and Central GOM.
I like that idea!!! I am a fan freak and have 7 of them, not counting the ceiling fans:)Extra Shear power!
I'm gonna get nailed for saying this but..
Emily is putting on a little weight!
I agree---I always keep my eyes on the ones that sneak up thru Cuba!
Steering Layer 400-850mb
Even if Emily was to rapidly strengthen into a minimal hurricane, it would be under a very similar steering pattern. IMO.
I find storms like this - the ones that take so long to spin up because of certain environmental factors, as well as persist nthrough it all - wind up stronger for it in the long run. If she looks relatively impressive under high wind shear (she kind of looks like a fetus O_o), then she just might prove to be more dangerous than we think.
Who knows, I can't say I do - I'm moreso a lurker than anything else. Emily is the first storm to actually impress me this year... although Cindy did somewhat: I still think she may have briefly become a minimal hurricane, and the NHC missed it because she was too far north and east.
i think you're right.
Just remember that steering pattern is always evolving and changing.
True, but the forecast shows a diagonal crossing over high terrain which implies a significant amount of time over hostile territory. If that track verifies I would not expect much of the system to emerge off the North Coast.
LOL! Pointing my fans to the East here in NC. Darn, does that mean I have to open the window? Too hot here.
What about rainfall potential? Could it stretch as far north in Greensboro, NC?
Wow, the Antillies sure are getting pounded tonight.
I do agree with this for now. If it does enter the Gulf, if shouldn't make it any farther west than the central Florida panhandle.
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