Tropical Storm Emily remains weak with roadblocks ahead
Tropical Storm Emily took a moment to pause this morning, with no forward motion to speak of in the 11am EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, who say Emily might have been reorganizing. Emily eventually picked up some speed, and was moving west at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph in the 2pm EDT advisory. Satellite loops suggest that the storm has improved since yesterday, with strong thunderstorm activity surrounding the center of circulation accompanied by moderately strong outflow at higher levels. Recent satellite estimates of circulation show some consolidation at low levels (850mb), but weak circulation at higher levels (500mb). Despite the organized presentation on satellite, Hurricane Hunters found a generally disorganized storm this morning, with multiple potential centers. The lowest pressure that the Hunters found was 1007mb. Wind shear remains strong to the north of the storm, and this feature extends west across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Dry air, which has been lingering to the north of the system for the past few days, has begun to wrap around the northwest side of the storm. This, along with high wind shear along its potential track, could delay or prevent further intensification over the life of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is on its way to Emily now.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 1pm EDT.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The official forecast for Emily is a track toward the west-northwest over the next day and a half, after which it will make a turn to the northwest, and by Saturday, to the north. Although the National Hurricane Center has been shifting the forecast track to the east over the past few advisories, the U.S. coastline is still within the cone of uncertainty, and if we know something about this storm, it's that the forecast is uncertain. The CMC continues to be the western boundary of the model track forecasts, bringing Emily over Cuba and into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico. Today, on the eastern boundary of potential tracks fall the HWRF and the GFDL, which forecast Emily to cross over Hispaniola on a north-northwest trajectory, skirting the eastern edge of the Bahamas, and turning northeast before ever making connection with the U.S. coast. The Hurricane Center's official track follows the model consensus, and is the most likely track. Today, Emily is not forecast to strengthen into a hurricane within the next five days by the National Hurricane Center nor most of the models. Consensus seems to be that the storm will max out at a moderate to strong tropical cyclone, but this is assuming the storm can survive the wrath of Hispaniola.
Surviving Hispaniola
Hispaniola is somewhat notorious for being a major disruptor to tropical cyclones that dare cross over it. Since 1950, around two dozen tropical cyclones have crossed Hispaniola near where the National Hurricane Center is forecasting that Emily will pass over. A handful of these cyclones were of similar intensity with a track that was similar to Emily's forecast by various models, and although some went on to intensify (the warm Gulf of Mexico waters can be quite healing) many were fatally disrupted by the second largest island in the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Tropical cyclones that have crossed Hispaniola since 1950 (plotted using the NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracker).
Fay of 2008 developed in the Mona Passage on August 15th as a tropical storm. After a rough track westward over the length of Hispaniola, Fay emerged back into open water with little to no organized circulation, but managed to survive, and skirted the southern coast of Cuba for the next couple of days before turning north toward Florida. Many remember 2008's Fay as the storm that intensified and developed an eye-like feature over Florida after making landfall.
Cindy of 1993 was not as lucky in a battle with Hispaniola. Cindy developed as a tropical depression just east of the Lesser Antilles, and over the course of two days, tracked west-northwest through the Caribbean toward Hispaniola, strengthening into a tropical storm and reaching peak intensity just before landfall. Almost immediately upon landfall in the Dominican Republic, Tropical Storm Cindy deteriorated and the National Hurricane Center stopped issuing advisories on the system.
Emily of 1987 developed well east of the Lesser Antilles in late September and tracked northwest into the Caribbean, where it underwent a period of rapid intensification and was upgraded to a hurricane and then a major hurricane (category 3) just before landfall in the Dominican Republic. As the hurricane approached Hispaniola, it began deteriorating, and within 12 hours of landfall, Emily had weakened to a tropical storm and never regained its strength. Emily then took a turn to the northeast and tracked into the open Atlantic. Hurricane Katie of 1955 had a similar fate.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I like seeing the "D" nearest to me, on the forecast track after Emily crosses Hispaniola...
I hope that is correct, and it does make sense, for it to weaken to a depression status.
Current to future motion.
You have no idea. I have been to them all. Hialeah, Hialeah Gardens, the two in Miami Gardens, Homestead, Kendall. The Miami store near the airport is the craziest.
Models:
Link
:O! Hope is an EF0 tornado
yup it looks like it froming a EYE
this will not turn out too be goood if this gos under a RI or some in be for slowing down and going too Hispaniola
Em, I'm not trying to doomcast, but I'll say the immortal line anyway....
Is that an eyewall?
Crazy as in how?
Eyewall??
recon shoud leave in about an hour or two from now they leave at 00Z right now it 2215Z
yes or soon will be it seens like a eye wall is froming
I would doubt that Trinidad really had much in the way of bad weather based on the storms path. Just a guess.
I try to avoid any and all Wal-Marts during storm season. There's alot of Cuban or oriental markets open late before a storm that usually does the trick.
983? what would that mean for winds
It's currently 2307Z.
Likely a moderate Cat 1, 80-85mph.
Towers you say?
Crazy as in so busy that it practically takes the Heisman position to get from the entrance to the back of the store.
Looking good!
'Towers in the Tempest' is a narrated animation that explains recent scientific insights into how hurricanes intensify. This intensification can be caused by a phenomenon called a 'hot tower'. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations using a very fine temporal resolution of 3 minutes. Combining this simulation data with satellite observations enables detailed study of 'hot towers'. The science of 'hot towers' is described using: observed hurricane data from a satellite, descriptive illustrations, and volumetric visualizations of simulation data. The first section of the animation shows actual data from Hurricane Bonnie observed by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft. Three dimensional precipitation radar data reveal a strong 'hot tower' in Hurricane Bonnie's internal structure. The second section uses illustrations to show the dynamics of a hurricane and the formation of 'hot towers'. 'Hot towers' are formed as air spirals inward towards the eye and is forced rapidly upwards, accelerating the movement of energy into high altitude clouds. The third section shows these processes using volumetric cloud, wind, and vorticity data from a supercomputer simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. Vertical wind speed data highlights a 'hot tower'. Arrows representing the wind field move rapidly up into the 'hot tower, boosting the energy and intensifying the hurricane. Combining satellite observations with super-computer simulations provides a powerful tool for studying Earth's complex systems.
Wow. Scenes from the past. Flash-backs extra-ordinaire! I can visualize almost all of those, in a galaxy a long time ago far, far away. Transferred to Boston and now New Hampshire.
What's tower is that in the SE corner of the image? Is that part of the storm converging into the swirl or something else?
Hey, I do what I can. :)
OK. Blog posting will accelerate to less than 5 seconds per post with that.
no lol
Seems like a slight westward shift but nothing dramatic.
I still say that Emily will stay south of Haiti while moving W/WNW
I knew I should have used a semicolon instead of a comma. It is the HWRF; GFDL is not in yet.
pressure ?
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