Emily slides west, still a threat for Hispaniola and Cuba
As of 2AM EDT, Tropical Storm Emily was located at 17.1N, 71.3W, about 120 miles south-southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Emily was moving W at 5 mph with sustained winds of 50 mph. It's central pressure was estimated to be 1006 mb. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeast and central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos islands, and eastern Cuba.
Satellite imagery still shows that the majority of convection associated with Emily is east of the center of circulation.
Figure 1 IR Satellite image of TS Emily taken at 2AM EDT August 4, 2011
Emily and the Turn Northwards
According to the most recent forecast issued by NHC, Emily was forecast to be at 17.5N, 72.5W at 2AM EDT, which is a point 68 miles west-northwest of it's assigned location. This indicates that Emily is not curving northwards as expected. This makes me more skeptical of the computer model forecasts that pull Emily to the northwards sharply towards the southeast coast of Florida before recurving out to sea. All of the 00Z global models (NOGAPS, GFS, and CMC) are in rough agreement.
The forecast tracks provided by the suite of simpler models, the Beta and Advection Models and CLIPER, disagree. They have Emily taking a much more gradual turn to the north, thus moving northwest across Cuba. Given that these models have done a better job of predicting Emily's westwards track, I'm inclined to place more confidence in their predictions. However, the further west Emily goes, the chance that Emily makes landfall in Florida (due to a recurve) goes up. People with interests in Cuba and south Florida should keep an eye on this storm.
My opinion about forecasting Emily's intensity has not changed significantly from last evening's update. If Emily's circulation can survive the mountains of Hispaniola and/or the terrain of Cuba, conditions are favorable for moderate intensification.
The current NHC forecast is shown in Figure 2 and has Emily turning towards the north, passing through the western Bahamas before turning out to sea.
In terms of immediate impacts, 6-12 inches of rain are expected over Haiti, and the Dominican Republic, with 20 inches possible in isolated areas. Flash floods and landslides are expected to be major problems on Hispaniola. Tropical storm winds will reach Haiti today and could reach eastern Cuba later today. Port-au-Prince, Guantanamo and Santiago de Cuba would be good stations to monitor today.
Figure 2 Official five-day track forecast for Tropical Storm Emily.
Eastern Pacific
Eugene reached category 4 status with estimated winds of 140 mph earlier today. After that peak, Eugene started weakening and now has winds of 120 mph. Further weakening is expected as Eugene moves over cooler waters. Invest 97E is not looking as impressive as it was last night and has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical disturbance in the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific
Typhoon Muifa is now forecast to make landfall near Shanghai, China as the equivalent of a category 3 hurricane. This will be troublesome for one of the busiest ports in the world.
Figure 3 Five-day track forecast for Typhoon Muifa from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Angela will have a full post Thursday morning discussing Emily.
Thanks for reading,
Dr. Rob Carver
Reader Comments
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That number has to be converted to lat and long. See below
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°04'N 71°49'W (17.0667N 71.8167W)
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The NHC did mention that the centre location was unsure in the last advisory as recon had difficulties and had to leave. So it's likely that their coordinates were a little out.
Ah. Thanks Kman.
South but not East. See post 201
Have a nice day everyone.
Think emilly is a mess is more like it. Interaction with mountains and ULL to its east kinda makes her look like more than she really is. But, what a mess for haiti
Yeah I agree. Models kept initializing it at going WNW or NW and it just kept on going W. Looks like it's finally starting to make some sort of slow turn though.
if minimal weakening occurs, then once shear is more conducive, and waters get even warmer in the bahamas, then we will be dealing with Emily probably achieving 65+ mph...
Breaking this impasse is taking a very long time and looks to continue for some time yet.
Yep, south of the estimated location, and old Emily is still moving more west than it is north, even at WNW Emily would continue to completely miss the NHC depiction and most of the models. Until this thing turns significantly Norhwest, its still missing the forecast by a long shot.
between now and tonight my determine if the thing finally turns north after all, or if it continues on a more left track and a significant shift would be forced regardless of computer models.
I would think it has something to do with the timing of the second trough and the fact that Emily has stalled out a few times over the last 24 hours thus moving more slowly than expected.
8:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 4
Location: 17.1°N 71.8°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Good morning. Emily will just be hanging around for a while it seems. See post 224
Stationary... interesting.
(~ 29.63 inHg)
Exactly. This 'slowdown' of the center is the re-stacking of the LLC with the main convection - basically knocking the tilt in the system straight again. This is what was happening in the GFS at 12z yesterday, where it looked like a heat-seeking missle trying to avoid land at all cost.
Hispanola is what has done it. The LLC got close to it and essentially ran into the wall. So it's been waiting for the rest of the system to come along, since that's where it's upper level support is anyway.
Now that it is just about completely restacked, we should see an increase in the 'center' of motion - right up to the mountains of Haiti.
Yes and I am surprised that the GFS just kinda poofs emilly. Barely even reflects her.
WTNT25 KNHC 040848
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
0900 UTC THU AUG 04 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 71.7W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 71.7W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 71.2W
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.9N 72.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 74.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 76.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.7N 77.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 36.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 71.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN
Though Unfortunately with the strongest part of Emily going to go right over them, and 15 to 20 inches expected over the mountains, the Death Toll will begin to rise by tonight and into Friday/Saturday...
I think it because current guidance models has the G4 dropzonde data from yesterday imputed into them.In theory these runs should be more accurate. I am not totally buying into them yet until Emily decides to make a turn. If she don't turn in the next 8 to 12 hours they will probably shift back West IMO. As we know the environment is constantly changing.
yup...she's a bit of a showgirl...
I think your right but still think its between south tip of florida and eastern bahamas ultimately.
Near 72.2 when you convert the reading but a negligible amount further N. This may not necessarily mean further motion to the West but simply the lowest pressure jumping around some. We will need to wait for further fixes over the next couple of hours to determine if there is a slow motion off to about 275/280 degrees which is still considered West
Which is almost due west of the last lowest pressure found.
Coordinates: 17.25N 71.6333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.6 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,560 meters (~ 5,118 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.1 mb (~ 29.83 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 137° at 45 knots (From the SE at ~ 51.7 mph)
Air Temp: 14.1°C (~ 57.4°F)
Dew Pt: 11.9°C (~ 53.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 57 knots (~ 65.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 37 mm/hr (~ 1.46 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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