Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
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17.2n71.7w, 18.0n72.8w, 19.6n73.2w, 20.9n73.9w were re-evaluated&altered for the 12pmGMT ATCF
17.2n71.9w, 18.1n73.3w, 20.0n73.8w, 20.9n74.5w, 22.0n76.5w are now the most recent positions
TropicalWaveEmily's travel-speed was 24.8mph(40k/h) on a heading of 300.8degrees(WNW)
Copy&paste 17.0n71.2w, 17.2n71.9w-18.1n73.3w, 18.1n73.3w-20.0n73.8w, 20.0n73.8w-20.9n74.5w, 20.9n74.5w-22.0n76.5w, isj, tpa, eyw, ccc, dct, 20.9n74.5w-24.598n81.56w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TW.Emily was headed toward passage over SugarloafKey,Florida ~10hours from now
Quoting Grothar:
I believe we are seeing the convection trying to wrap around a very weak center in the central Bahamas.
Linkgro i have no doubt in my mind that reformation is highly likly at this time more so as we get into late tonight and saturday morning
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 108 Comments: 26664
Thanks for reposting that, KEEP. It could have been lost in the WU archives. LOL Glad to see that Dr. Master's, Angela and the NHC are coming around to my way of thinking. (Hope they know I'm kidding) Nice blog,Angela.
Kind of reminds me of 2010 Colin
No shouting on the blog please.
sheri
WHXX01 KWBC 051239
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1239 UTC FRI AUG 5 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE EMILY (AL052011) 20110805 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110805 1200 110806 0000 110806 1200 110807 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 76.5W 23.6N 77.9W 25.0N 79.0W 26.4N 79.2W
BAMD 22.0N 76.5W 22.9N 78.0W 23.8N 79.4W 24.7N 80.6W
BAMM 22.0N 76.5W 23.1N 77.9W 24.1N 79.1W 25.2N 79.8W
LBAR 22.0N 76.5W 23.9N 78.1W 25.6N 79.4W 27.1N 80.1W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110807 1200 110808 1200 110809 1200 110810 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.4N 78.6W 29.5N 74.1W 32.6N 65.6W 32.6N 54.3W
BAMD 25.3N 81.3W 25.9N 82.0W 26.1N 82.1W 26.2N 82.3W
BAMM 25.8N 79.9W 26.5N 78.6W 27.7N 76.3W 29.7N 72.5W
LBAR 28.2N 79.8W 29.7N 77.4W 31.5N 73.5W 34.0N 67.2W
SHIP 38KTS 46KTS 60KTS 63KTS
DSHP 38KTS 46KTS 60KTS 63KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 76.5W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 20.0N LONM12 = 73.8W DIRM12 = 338DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 17.2N LONM24 = 71.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Cool pics.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouNiZCw4bDU
A Job Well Done :o)
Taco :O)
plus one yes she has .
keeper are those the new runs tia
Looks like some of this brings it in the S. FL neighborhood in a couple of days.
wwll that is where the strongest area of 950 vort is
Hi Grothar, nice to meet you!
They track all time high heat index?
Those are some mighty warm waters, 90F.
thx for the update Angela
Well, to me, it looks like the remnants of Emily will head for the Keys, not for certain, but to me that appears like the most likely track for Emily's remnant low.
000
URNT10 KNHC 051651
97779 16464 60230 74909 73100 15012 66683 /5760
RMK AF305 WXWXA 110805141421305 OB 05
;
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