Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Right now it looks like NNW through the Bahamas and then out to sea. Odds of NW to the West coast of Fla about 20% IMO
Think we may see some rain in the Ft. Lauderdale area from this? We really need it. A weak tropical storm would not be a bad thing here. Feel bad for Haiti though - seems like they can't catch a break.
More like an infrared glitch.
Didn't mean to exclude "Don the doozy"
True, but, track + intensity, makes a complete forecast.
My thoughts on Emily...
She has impressed this afternoon with a sruface circulation possibly evident within the convection South of andros is. Convergence(Surface convective blow up, Be able to produce convection freely) is well defined with the system as well as divergence(Ventilation). Vorticity is increasing where the possible Surface circulation is situated, and DMIN has tooken little affect on Ex-Emily this evening. My outlook is that Emily should continue this trend til Mid PM tomorrow then the NHC(if at all) will Regenerate her into Tropical depression/Storm Emily and head between Andros and Miami, with a possible nick/landfall to Florida before heading out to sea.
i foresee, that if Emily were to reform that her intensity could peak out around 50 to 65 mph depending on when/if Reformation occurs.
Were all from Florida
Lighthouse Point - north of Ft Lauderdale, south of Boca. How about you?
Yeah, we should see rain from ex-Emily going into tomorrow as it should get close enough for us to get some rain. I wouldn't mind a weak TS either (40-50 mph). Poor Haiti has been getting the worst. I read an article today about how Haiti still hasn't recovered from the earthquake.
first time I ever seen purple on the atlantic side where the NHC has a circle..
.
Charleston here.
JK
Jupiter here.
You're awesome! Anyone willing to brave the heat in the name of going back to work is a class act in my book. Hot weather aside, I hope you have some fun!
Sorry, meant NW to the East coast of Fla. W coast would be WNW then a right turn.
Uh, what?
Oops I just ruined the Florida party LOL. So I see Ex-Emily is looking better, almost to the point of regeneration......Nice, got something to track over the weekend !! Hope you Floridians get some useful rain.
PS. Lotsa great weather people here, from young to old. I'm 61, thus minority :) living in Palm Beach County, SEFL, member since 2005. I've seen people "strongly" disagree (LOL!), seen trolls come and go and spewed tea over my keyboard many times reading posts from members with a fab sense of humor.
Sometimes what we see and think is not what is. Newbies are not always trolls and could be in real danger. Was nice to see kind, short replies to a cry of help from someone who may or may not need help.
Back to luwkin' mode to see if we'll get any rain from ex-Emily.
Not me I'm from Richmond VA.
used to go to the inlet there on a full moon to catch snook. Back in the older days...lol!
I mean Lighthouse point.
Boca Raton, FL
#
:Prediction_dates: 2011 Aug 06 2011 Aug 07 2011 Aug 08
:Geomagnetic_A_indices:
A_Fredericksburg 35 15 8
A_Planetary 35 18 10
#
# Predicted 3-hour Middle latitude k-indices
:Pred_Mid_k:
Mid/00-03UT 4 3 3
Mid/03-06UT 5 3 3
Mid/06-09UT 5 3 1
Mid/09-12UT 4 3 1
Mid/12-15UT 4 3 2
Mid/15-18UT 4 3 2
Mid/18-21UT 4 3 1
Mid/21-00UT 5 3 2
#
# Predicted 3-hour High latitude k-indices
:Pred_High_k:
High/00-03UT 5 3 2
High/03-06UT 4 3 3
High/06-09UT 5 4 1
High/09-12UT 5 4 2
High/12-15UT 5 4 3
High/15-18UT 5 3 3
High/18-21UT 4 3 2
High/21-00UT 4 3 2
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active 20 25 10
Mid/Minor_Storm 40 15 5
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm 35 5 0
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active 20 25 15
High/Minor_Storm 35 20 5
High/Major-Severe_Storm 40 15 0
#
# Polar Cap Absorption Forecast
:Polar_cap:
red
#
# Solar
:10cm_flux:
110 110 100
#
:Whole_Disk_Flare_Prob:
Class_M 40 40 35
Class_X 10 10 5
Proton 95 50 25
#
# Region Flare Probabilities for 2011 Aug 06
# Region Class C M X P
:Reg_Prob: 2011 Aug 05
1260 5 0 0 0
1261 75 30 5 5
1263 65 15 5 5
1266 5 0 0 0
1267 40 1 1 0
big change from earlier.
St Lucie, Fl lady here. And I agree that all newbies aren't trolls, but I bet that Shanghai guy was. ;)
Frances and Jean did a number up there, I remember 2004 - rough year. We only got fringe effects from them - 2 days without power from each. Wilma was our bad one - 2 weeks with no power.
Hope we don't get those kind of storms this year.
Ummm... southeast Florida.
Formerly the island of Trinidad. Now Tampa.
I'm a lurker but I do wish we could make hometowns visible on our posts.
ROFLMAO!!!
I have a store on Lake Ave, between K & J St. Why did you leave? LW is really a good place nowadays!
Try your next two guesses.. lol
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