Remnants of Emily could redevelop; Muifa batters Okinawa; Central U.S. roasts
Tropical Storm Emily degraded into an open tropical wave yesterday afternoon, after Hurricane Hunters could no longer locate a center of circulation at the surface. Through the morning yesterday, the storm appeared to lose most of its strong thunderstorm activity on the north side, and mid-level circulation was broad (tropical cyclones need a tight, coherent circulation to maintain themselves). Soon after the Hurricane Hunters took a pass through the storm, the National Hurricane Center demoted Emily from a tropical storm to a remnant low, while continuing to stress the rainfall threat to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Today it appears the center of the remnants are located just north of eastern Cuba in the southern Bahamas, although thunderstorm activity continues across eastern Cuba. Hispaniola probably saw rain and thunderstorms again early this morning, the strongest of which were on the eastern side of the island. New thunderstorm activity is starting to develop in the southeast Bahamas. Given Wednesday's rain gauge analysis from CPC, Hispaniola probably saw at least an additional 5 inches of rain yesterday.
Environmental conditions remain pretty much the same as yesterday, but are expected to become more favorable for Emily's remnants, and redevelopment of the storm is possible. Circulation from the low to mid-levels is still broad and tilting to the east with height due to the lingering moderate westerly wind shear. However, this shear is expected to dissipate some over the next 24 hours, and signs of this are already present to the west of the remnants. The dry air that has been following the storm since its inception has dissipated, as well.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily as they move northwest away from Cuba and Hispaniola and into the Bahamas.
Forecast for Emily's Remnants
Interestingly, the models have come into better agreement on the forecast for former Emily now that it has lost its surface circulation and degenerated into a tropical wave. The ECMWF, which has come out ahead in this forecasting game so far, is optimistic today that Emily will redevelop. Other global models—GFS, CMC, and FIM—also redevelop the storm. Consensus on timing of redevelopment seems to be when the wave reaches the northern Bahamas in 24 to 48 hours. At 12Z (8am EDT), the high-resolution HWRF model run forecasted a track that was furthest to the west of all the models, scraping eastern Florida as it travels northwest. The most probable track and intensity forecast that I see at this point is north-northwest movement over the next 24 to 36 hours, at which point the system will take a fairly sharp turn to the northeast and out to sea. Without an already established, coherent circulation, it appears unlikely that if Emily is reborn it will intensify into anything more than a moderate tropical storm. However, there is some potential as the system moves out to see that it could gain some strength and develop hurricane-force winds before it transitions into an extra-tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Muifa passes to the south of Okinawa, heads into East China Sea
The center of Typhoon Muifa passed to the south of Okinawa earlier this morning (Eastern time) and it continues to batter the islands with high winds and torrential rain. Local radar estimate rainfall rates as high as 80 mm/hour (approx. 3 inches/hour) in the strongest rain bands. Kadena Air Force Base near the city of Okinawa has been reporting sustained winds of 47 mph with gusts up to 72 mph. Muifa is expected to turn northwest today as it enters the East China Sea as a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and then intensify into a category 2 as it passes close to eastern China. This morning, the forecast is that Muifa will probably not make landfall anywhere as a typhoon.
Figure 2. Radar imagery from the Japan Meteorological Agency around 1am JST. Scale is in millimeters. Highest rainfall rates appear to be approximately 3 inches/hour.
South-Central U.S. continues to bake
The extreme heat continues again today after 269 high maximum and 250 high minimum temperature records were set yesterday, 19 and 29 of which were all-time records, respectively. 206 of yesterday's records were 110°F or higher. Yesterday, Reuters was reporting that Texas was one power plant shutdown away from rolling blackouts. The forecast today doesn't look any better. Heat index values up to 125° are forecast in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Particularly toasty heat index values from yesterday:
• Mobile, Alabama: 120°
• Arkadelphia, Arkansas: 121°
• Bay St. Louis, Mississippi: 121°
• Memphis, Tennessee: 122°
Figure 3. Heat index forecast from the ECMWF for today. Scale is in degrees Fahrenheit. You can plot model forecasts using Wundermap by choosing the "Model Data" layer.
Angela
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Try your next two guesses.. lol
Do I still get two more guesses? :)
Merritt Island, Brevard County
yep. in my opinion the system looks as good as it ever has.
18.2n73.1w, 20.0n73.8w, 21.1n75.2w, 21.9n76.1w, 22.4n76.7w, 22.8n77.2w are now the most recent positions
TropicalWaveEmily's travel-speed was 7mph(11.3k/h) on a heading of 310.8degrees(NorthWest)
The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Copy&paste 18.2n73.1w, 20.0n73.8w-21.1n75.2w, 21.1n75.2w-21.9n76.1w, 21.9n76.1w-22.4n76.7w, 22.4n76.7w-22.8n77.2w, psx, bpt, tpa, oca, ccc, cox, 22.4n76.7w-25.218n80.335w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates for 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TW.Emily was headed toward passage over KeyLargo,Florida ~1days11hours from now
Upon re-evaluation&alteration, TW.Emily has been traveling a LOT slower than the previous ATCF's had shown. See the previous mapping for more details.
Aww jeeze ,ya got me. I'm really from BocaPortSaintDeerfieldJaxcapedaytonia
Tea is faaar away from my keyboard, other wise... lol
I give up... it's too hard.
Hollywood, FL
Praying for all those who might be in the path of any of these storms, Keep them off land until they can come in as a super rain generator and drench LA and TX.... Looking (prayer casting) for landfall East of Houston TX... Entirely possible in the Super-natural.
POP
NE Ft Lauderdale?
true, you could be from Mississippi (hench the watching part) LOL
Bay Colony. Coral Ridge
no no we weren't guessing mine. I already told.. lol
Didn't even notice your handle. Is it north east FLA? :)
Ding, ding ding... ;)
Seriously? You were really just guessing? :O
Strictly based on cloud pattern, this is a very healthy looking wave. I hadn't visited the blog since yesterday when Emily was nixed. (I'm usually a lurker, content to read opinions.) What's the feeling out there that this will be the next Invest?
Sarcasm is difficult to show in a blog.
Oh, whew.. feel better now. ;)
Taco :o)
I wish st lucie was trasure island lol.
I thought your name might have been NEFL? Apparently I was wrong. Weird names popping up nowadays.
Where do you think she's heading? In the TWO, the NHC didn't even mention that any part of Florida should monitor the progress of ex-Emily..
Dive Dive Dive!
...All I've ever found were fish
Lat: 42.92028 Lon: -112.57111 Elev: 4449
Last Update on 05 Aug 19:53 MDT
Partly Cloudy
81°F
(27°C) Humidity: 28 %
Wind Speed: NW 3 MPH
Barometer: 30.01 in (1011.60 mb)
Dewpoint: 45°F (7°C)
Heat Index: 80°F (27°C)
Visibility: 10.00 Miles
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:
CHINA has evacuated more than 200,000 people on its east coast and cancelled nearly 200 flights in preparation for the most powerful typhoon to hit the country in years.
Typhoon Muifa, packing winds of up to 162km/h, is expected to make landfall on China's east coast on Saturday evening or on Sunday local time, the official Xinhua news agency says.
The eastern province of Zhejiang, located south of Shanghai, had moved to safety just over 206,000 people from its coastal areas in the path of the typhoon by Friday evening, Xinhua said.
A weather official in Shanghai told local media the city had "basically ruled out" a direct hit, yet warned it might be close.
The typhoon would be the worst to affect China's commercial centre since 2005, when Typhoon Matsa killed seven people.
China Southern Airlines said it would cancel more than 140 flights to the east of the country from Saturday afternoon, while flag carrier Air China said it would cancel more than 30 flights, Xinhua said.
Shanghai also warned bullet train services might be slowed or halted because of the storm - a sensitive issue after a deadly high-speed train crash two weeks ago that was initially blamed on weather conditions.
China had called more than 9000 fishing boats back to harbour and cancelled ferry services on more than 20 routes.
Muifa lashed Japan's Okinawa island overnight, causing heavy rains, prompting flight cancellations and blackouts and leaving at least a dozen people with mostly light injuries.
China is braced for strong winds and torrential rain. Waves up to 4.5 metres are expected in coastal areas and up to 12 metres in the East China Sea.
Cape Coral, Florida here. Just a lurker but so love this site. Am learning so much.
.
@ POP, all kidding aside.The "greatest generation",will always be, within our hearts. God Bless ya buddy.
Whatever is left of it will more than likely move slowly WNW tonight, before taking off towards the NNW/N tomorrow. Should stay well off shore of Florida.
any thoughts on a possibility of a watch for sefl at 11pm? my local weather shows 50% of rain and winds of 5mph tomorrow.
That's funny ProPulse....lol...but you're right, there are some weird names these days, for sure...
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